Ben Ames has spent 20 years as a journalist since starting out as a daily newspaper reporter in Pennsylvania in 1995. From 1999 forward, he has focused on business and technology reporting for a number of trade journals, beginning when he joined Design News and Modern Materials Handling magazines. Ames is author of the trail guide "Hiking Massachusetts" and is a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism.
The Waterloo, Iowa-based company serves 20 grain elevators, two ethanol plants, two mineral processing facilities, and also handles other commodities such as fertilizer, farm machinery, food, chemicals, and lumber. IANR has 110 employees, 450 grain hopper rail cars, and 30 locomotives.
The approval decision by the U.S. Surface Transportation Board (STB) clears the way for CN to combine IANR’s route miles with CN’s nearly 20,000-mile rail network as early as February 13. A combined CN-IANR will offer single-line service to better connect grain, fertilizer, renewable fuels, and industrial markets to CN’s North American network, CN said.
In additional—though unrelated—rail union action on Tuesday, members of Local 101R at CN rival Canadian Pacific Kansas City Railway (CPKC) voted in favor of strike action if their contract negotiations don’t succeed by January 29,according to Unifor, Canada's largest private sector union. Unifor represents more than 1,200 members at Local 101R who work in mechanical shops, inspecting and maintaining CPKC’s fleet of locomotives and freight cars, and ensuring the railway’s equipment is safe and operational.
It’s been an up and down year for the intermodal rail industry. Severe weather impacted operations early in the year. Yet the market absorbed those challenges and staged a modest recovery. By the end of the second quarter, total intermodal volumes had risen 7.9% year over year, according to the Intermodal Association of North America’s 2024 second-quarter report, released July 29. International containers, those 20- and 40-foot TEUs (20-foot equivalent units) coming into the nation’s ports, rose 13.3%. Domestic intermodal traffic, typically 53-foot containers, improved 5.0%, while trailers fell 20.6%.
“International volume provided the biggest lift,” noted Joni Casey, IANA’s president and CEO, who is retiring at the end of the year, in a news release announcing the report. “Domestic containers played a supporting role, especially important as the decline in TOFC [trailer on flatcar] moves continued.” Total IMC (intermodal marketing company) volumes increased 5.5% year over year in Q2, she added.
Nevertheless, troubling signs are on the horizon that could derail the market’s newfound stability. According to the Institute for Supply Management’s “Manufacturing ISM Report on Business” for August, economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in August for the fifth consecutive month (as measured on a year-over-year basis). But compared to July, the August index was up slightly to 47.2, or 0.4 percentage points.
And while the overall economy continued its expansion for the 52nd consecutive month (after one month of contraction in April 2020), U.S. manufacturing activity remained in contraction territory, the report’s author, Timothy R. Fiore, chair of the ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said.
“U.S. manufacturing activity contracted slower compared to last month. Demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative,” he said in a statement, adding that three key related indexes—New Orders, New Export Orders, and Backlog of Orders—“remained in strong contraction territory.”
One silver lining has been the U.S. consumer, who has kept spending at a positive yet measured pace, providing an underpinning for the overall economy. That’s been good news for intermodal service providers looking for a more sustained recovery.
WHAT’S AN OPERATOR TO DO?
Larry Gross, founder and president of Gross Transportation Consulting,has seen any number of market cycles over his decades of work in the intermodal industry. “There is a lot of churn, a lot of uncertainty in the markets right now,” he’s observed. A lot of freight moved earlier in the year as shippers took steps to pull forward inventory in an attempt to avoid potential disruptions from various issues.
Those issues include a potential East and Gulf Coast port strike, labor unrest with Canada’s railroads (workers are now back on the job while their contract is in arbitration), continued geopolitical hostilities, concerns over the upcoming election, and the prospect of future new tariffs on a variety of imports next year.
Worries over a disruption at East Coast ports in particular “have caused a swing to the West Coast in terms of TEUs coming into North America,” says Gross. “There has definitely been a diversion,” he adds, citing container volumes out of the Pacific Northwest that were up 83% in July over last year. “The PNW is getting really congested,” and that, Gross says, is part of the reason why the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports are seeing container volumes surge as well. “It’s a reversal of a long-term trend, which was west-to-east migration.”
Those trends also reflect routing decisions made months ago by shippers to avoid potential port strike disruptions, and which will take months to unwind, Gross points out. “Containers on the water today, headed to West Coast ports and eventually destined for transfer to intermodal trains, are based on decisions shippers made in the spring or before. They’re set in stone,” he says. So as intermodal operators look at that incoming traffic, they have to plan for and start repositioning assets to handle those volumes at those ports. And that takes time.
“August and September are typically the biggest months for international,” Gross adds. “October is the biggest month for domestic. The rail network, from all indications, is running smoothly. Trains generally have recovered [from earlier operating hiccups] and are running consistently, but it takes time for the system to fully reset,” he says, and it could take months for the system to balance out.
PLENTY OF CAPACITY
Intermodal rail capacity is not an issue, according to several reports. Whereas ample capacity and rate competition through most of 2024 caused shippers to move some freight from rail to road, “the bleeding has stopped,” says Gross. “The erosion of share from intermodal to truck” has subsided, and rail intermodal operators are working hard to “claw that traffic back,” he adds.
Of the overall volume of truckload freight moving 500 miles or more, excluding ISO container moves (moves of international intermodal containers coming off ships), domestic intermodal accounts for about 6% of the market, with truck accounting for 94%. During the pandemic, intermodal’s share hit nearly 7%. For the past six quarters, that share has returned to the more typical 6%.
“I am of the opinion that the market we are in right now with regard to freight is not that unusual,” says Gross. “We are not that far off” [from a more balanced market],” he adds. “[The railroads] have removed poor service as a reason for shippers to abandon intermodal. Now the door is open, and they have to close the sale.” For a shipper who is close to an origin and destination intermodal terminal, “it is almost unbeatable.”
Indeed, Class 1 railroads are making operational improvements, investing in capacity and infrastructure, and gearing up to aggressively go after more intermodal business as the year proceeds, buoyed by surging international import volumes, according to several industry sources.
At Union Pacific, which generated $5.6 billion in second-quarter revenue, “service levels and network performance for the second quarter remained strong, demonstrating our recoverability in the wake of major weather disruptions,” said Eric Gehringer, UP’s executive vice president of operations, in the company’s recent second-quarter earnings call. Freight car velocity was flat, as improvements in terminal dwell were offset by weather-related drops in train speeds.
He sees opportunity to drive stronger terminal dwell performance “by removing unnecessary car touches across the network.” Results also benefited from a 6% improvement in locomotive productivity driven by better network fluidity and improved asset utilization. Train length improved 2%, with June marking the first month ever with a UP train length over 9,600 feet. “That’s a remarkable achievement by the team as they continue to generate mainline capacity for future growth,” Gehringer said.
Looking ahead, Jennifer Hamann, UP’s executive vice president and CFO, noted “a lot of the drivers that were present in the second quarter are going to be present at least into the third quarter. International intermodal is staying strong, [and] coal is weaker.” On the industrial side of the business, Hamann said, “while we have great business development opportunities, there’s a little softness there.”
Added Jim Vena, UP’s CEO: “We’ve got a great team. They know what the end goal is. So I see us optimizing the railroad and getting better at how we operate.” Yet what really will help improve UP’s operating margin, Vena believes, “is revenue growth. We are pushing hard on that piece by both bringing in volume at the right price” and managing pricing effectively to account for inflation and other cost challenges the railroad has endured.
A FOCUS ON SERVICE
At BNSF, the railroad is leveraging a $3.92 billion capital plan this year to, among other things, add main track miles, expand intermodal parking, add rolling stock, increase production capacity at intermodal yards, improve technology, and make “resiliency investments” to harden its network against extreme weather conditions, according to Kendall Sloan, BNSF’s director of external communications.
“BNSF’s reach is broader than any other Class 1 railroad,” she notes. The railroad operates 32,500 miles of track, providing “direct access to the country’s biggest … inland markets and multiple service options,” with particular attention to customer service.
One example she cites is the BNSF’s partnership with intermodal operator J.B. Hunt. Last fall, the two companies jointly launched Quantum, a new intermodal service “to accommodate the service-sensitive highway freight needs of customer supply chains,” she says. Citing as its hallmarks consistency, agility, and speed, Sloan says Quantum is averaging “up to 98% on-time delivery,” generally providing a service that is a day faster than traditional intermodal.
On the technology side, BNSF has been investing in and deploying new technologies to better leverage data to provide improved analytics and support safety improvements. Among those have been “brake health effectiveness detectors, drones,” and other advanced equipment, software tools, and systems, all designed to provide more timely and accurate data. On the labor front, BNSF as of Sept. 4 had reached tentative collective bargaining agreements with six of its labor unions, months ahead of schedule. The agreements will now need to be ratified by covered employees.
In preparation for the upswing in demand expected from this year’s domestic intermodal peak season, BNSF since early July has deployed additional train crews, locomotives, and railcars across the Pacific Northwest, California, and Texas. The railroad so far has seen a 40% increase in Inland Point Intermodal (IPI) volumes (IPI moves are cargoes going from a port to a shipper’s door in the interior of the country via a domestic or international intermodal container), handling a record number of on-dock railcar loadings from Southern California’s ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in the first half of this year.
What are intermodal customers asking for? Reliable capacity; safe, efficient operations; and consistent, reliable performance that meets expected delivery times at a reasonable cost. For Class 1 railroads, that means continued investments across the board. Among BNSF’s initiatives in this regard are a planned multibillion-dollar investment in its Barstow (California) International Gateway and a master-planned logistics hub in Arizona’s Maricopa County.
“We know that our customers always are looking for new ways to move their shipments as safely and quickly as possible,” notes Sloan. That’s the underlying incentive for both the rail’s billion-dollar investments in the network and its focus on safety, exemplified by the railroad’s finishing last year with “the fewest injuries in BNSF’s history,” Sloan says. “We continue to lead the industry in safety and are committed to continuous improvement.”
OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD
As the intermodal rail market settles back to prepandemic levels, there remain opportunities, yet the constant competitive tug of war between over-the-road trucking and intermodal shows no signs of abating. IANA’s Casey expects the industry to continue to deliver modest growth—a prediction that was borne out in July’s and August’s upbeat volume numbers—fueled by containerized import traffic returning to the West Coast, which has seen double-digit gains for most of the year.
Domestic container growth, however, has not been as strong “due to tougher year-over-year comparisons and competition with over-the-road trucking,” she notes. “Still, modest growth of industrial activity and transloads from West Coast imports have provided a tailwind.”
With peak season in full swing, she believes the industry can avoid the congestion issues experienced during the pandemic. “Fleet owners have signaled that container velocity continues to trend to prepandemic levels. The intermodal network appears to have [sufficient] assets in place. And there has been no mention of any chassis supply constraints,” she says.
Yet challenges are looming. Among the most worrying to shippers is the prospect of a strike at East and Gulf Coast ports. “This would be disruptive not only for those locations, but also for a good portion of the intermodal supply chain,” she believes. “That would force shippers to execute contingency plans.” Other concerns center on the upcoming election, the prospect of higher tariffs under a new administration, and other disruptive “black swan” events.
On the opportunity side of the ledger, Casey cites the growth of nearshoring and reshoring as companies move operations from Asia to Mexico, increasing opportunity for cross-border U.S.-Mexico moves. She also cites transloading and the potential for domestic intermodal growth as well as the accelerating demand for “sustainable” transportation driven by clean air initiatives.
At its core, in her view, the intermodal rail industry still has three primary advantages over highway truckload service: “environmental stewardship, service consistency, and cost savings.” And those are advantages that will continue to endure and deliver sustainable value in any market cycle.
Freight trains have stopped rolling in Canada today after negotiators failed to agree on the terms of a new contract for union workers at Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) railroads, bringing supply chains to a screeching halt at a critical time for both back-to-school sales and the start of the winter holiday inventory rush.
The stoppage began one minute past midnight on Thursday morning, when CN and CPKC locked out employees represented by the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC). Until the railways and the TCRC come to an agreement, or binding arbitration is imposed, all train movements within Canada and between Canada and the United States have ceased, according to maritime carrier Hapag-Lloyd.
Both railways blamed workers for the stoppage, with CN saying “the union did not respond to another offer by CN in a final attempt to avoid a labour disruption.” And CPKC issued a similar statement, stating that “CPKC has bargained in good faith, but despite our best efforts, it is clear that a negotiated outcome with the TCRC is not within reach.”
However, union leaders insisted they had also been performing good faith negotiations. “Over the past several days, the Teamsters have put forward multiple offers, none of which were seriously considered by either company. The main obstacles to reaching an agreement remain the companies’ demands, not union proposals,” Paul Boucher, President, Teamsters Canada Rail Conference, said in a release.
Whoever is at fault, the timing hits global supply chains at a time when many links were already strained from additional disruptions, such as maritime freight carriers steering away from violence in the Red Sea, prompting them to sail longer routes and divert cargo to more distant ports. In that context, the rail stoppage will affect vast swaths of goods, such as the 30% of all clothes, shoes, and accessories that move by rail, including children’s apparel, backpacks, winter coats and boots, work shoes, and uniforms, according to the American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA).
So the trade group, which represents some 1,000 global apparel, footwear, travel goods, and accessories brands, is calling for an urgent stop to the strike and lockout that have stopped rail operations. “We need representatives of the unions and management to return and stay at the negotiating table to end this lockout and strike and ensure that a fair, sustainable, and long-term deal is reached. Keeping goods moving supports not only the rail jobs at issue, but also the jobs of millions of other workers up and down our supply chains," AAFA President and CEO Steve Lamar said in a release.
Likewise, the Consumer Brands Association said the stoppage will hit the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry, America’s largest domestic manufacturing sector. And that situation could soon grow worse, the group warned. “Disruptions across one transportation mode, no matter how pronounced, quickly lead to compounding disruptions that can contribute to higher prices, supply scarcity, and wasted agricultural product,” Tom Madrecki, CBA’s Vice President of Campaigns and Special Projects, said in a statement. “It is imperative that both the Canadian and U.S. government take immediate action and help both parties come to an agreement in order to prevent these impactful consequences for North America's supply chain."
Impacts of the stoppage will also expand to truckload and ocean markets, triggering widespread impacts across North American industries, said the supply chain visibility platform provider Project44. While no sector is immune, the industries anticipated to be most impacted include crude oil and petroleum, minerals and metals, lumber and forestry products, and automobile parts, Project44 said.
Indeed, the supply chain risk analysis firm Everstream Analytics said that carriers had already started to divert cargo from Canada’s West Coast ports before the strike began today. For example, the number of vessel arrivals at container terminals in the Port of Vancouver dropped from 73 to 61 for the second week of August, the second lowest number of arrivals throughout 2024. And the port reported a 22% reduction in the number of vessel arrivals in Vancouver since the middle of July.
In response to the rail stoppage, Everstream Analytics forecasted that more container ships will start to divert to alternative ports in the U.S., including Los Angeles-Long Beach, Oakland, and Seattle in the coming days, as yard congestion at Canadian ports and, subsequently, rail dwell times increase significantly. Following that trend, the most impacted goods shipped via rail would be fertilizer, iron ore, grain, cement, salt, potash, coal, cars, and wood/timber, as well as containers loaded with consumer goods or intermediate parts, the firm said.
Early last month, the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) released its final rulemaking on minimum train crew size. The new rules require all trains to have at least two crew members, with limited exceptions for smaller railroads.
Not surprisingly, crew size has been the subject of controversy. The Association of American Railroads claims that one-person crews have been operating trains safely for years, while rail unions, fearing job losses, have long opposed one-crew trains.
Before the 1960s, train crews often consisted of six members—an engineer, a conductor, a fireman, a flagman, and two brakemen. Over time, technology eliminated the need for some of those workers, particularly those whose jobs were to signal or manually apply brakes.
Supporters of one-person crews argue that new technologies, such as Positive Train Control (PTC), make trains safer. PTC helps maintain optimal distances between trains to avoid collisions and limits speeds to reduce derailments.
While trains can move safely with one operator, having an extra person onboard is essential when something goes wrong. U.S. railroads now experience an average of three derailments per day. That’s about 1,000 annually. Thankfully, most don’t result in loss of life or significant damage. Last year’s derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, when 38 railcars went off the tracks and caught fire, was the exception.
Newer technology has reduced the number of overall accidents (in 1978 alone, there were 8,763 derailments). However, even with the technology, humans still operate the trains. In its rule mandating two-person crews, the FRA noted that the rate for all “human factor”-caused accidents increased 41.1% between 2013 and 2022.
Trains today are much longer than they used to be. The average Class I train is 5,300 feet long, or just over a mile. Some reach three miles in length. Having a single person oversee a three-mile-long train seems inadequate, especially when it’s hauling toxic chemicals as in the East Palestine incident. A second person could apply brakes manually when needed, something a solo engineer cannot do.
The new ruling supersedes the patchwork of state regulations that, in some cases, required an extra crew member to hop aboard when a train crossed into one of the 11 states that already required two crew members.
I support the move to two-person crews. And in cases where operators are seeking exemptions, I think it’s reasonable to require the railroads to prove the train is safe to operate. This new rule makes sense and brings clarity.
Oh, and by the way—the train in the East Palestine accident had three crew members on board—enough to allow them to report the accident immediately and swiftly uncouple the locomotives and move them to safety. Try doing that alone.
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About this week's guest
Chris Jones is executive vice president of industry at Descartes Systems Group, where he is primarily responsible for industry consulting and professional services. With over 40 years of experience in the supply chain market, Jones has held a variety of senior management positions, including senior vice president at The Aberdeen Group’s Value Chain Research practice; executive vice president of marketing and corporate development for SynQuest; vice president and research director for enterprise resource planning solutions at Gartner; and associate director at Kraft General Foods.
Jones has numerous articles and blog posts published in leading logistics and supply chain publications and online forums. He has a Bachelor of Science in electrical engineering from Lehigh University.
The number of train accidents in the U.S. rose in 2023, even as proposed legislation to tighten safety regulations sits idle in Congress a year after a Norfolk Southern freight train derailed and spewed chemicals in East Palestine, Ohio, according to supply chain risk analysis firm Everstream Analytics.
If that accident trend continues, it could lead to growing problems in freight operations and increasing supply chain risk. “Without a regulatory overhaul, it is likely that train accidents will continue an upward trend,” Mirko Woitzik, Global Director of Intelligence Solutions at Everstream Analytics, said in a statement. “Trains are faster, longer, and carrying more cargo than ever before, making them more susceptible to accidents. An increase in accidents will ultimately lead to cargo delivery delays and shipment unpredictability.”
Specifically, the five Class 1 freight railroads operating in the United States — Union Pacific, BNSF, CSX, Norfolk Southern, and Canadian National – reported 256 accidents on their mainlines last year through October, representing an 11% increase from the same period in 2022, the firm said. The total number of derailments increased 13.5% last year, while obstruction accidents involving a train striking an object, increased 21%.
“Following the East Palestine derailment in Q1 of ’23, the number of incidents never saw a notable drop as would have been expected – instead, the numbers saw an uptick in the second half of the year. Further, Q4 saw the highest recorded incident numbers since 2021,” Woitzik said.
After the derailment occurred in February, 2023, various oversight bodies including the U.S. Department of Justice, state of Ohio, and U.S. Congress announced plans to tighten safety rules governing the rail sector. But the highest profile initiative—the Railway Safety Act—remains stuck in committee.
“In the weeks following the disastrous event, many called for widespread reforms to train safety protocols and enforcement in the U.S. However, one year on, Congress has failed to pass any legislation to prevent similar incidents. Despite the scrutiny received in the wake of the East Palestine incident, industry regulations are largely unchanged,” Woitzik said.
Part of the reason for that status is the strict opposition to the bill that has come from rail industry trade group the Association of American Railroads (AAR), which calls the bill “problematic” and has says that voluntary changes applied by the rail companies themselves are a better solution.
As examples, AAR cited recent rail industry moves to:
increase the frequency of hot bearing detectors (HBDs) on some routes
establish a new industry standard of stopping and inspecting trains when an HBD reading exceeds certain temperatures
train 20,000 first responders in local communities
double the number of first responders with access to AskRail, which provides real-time information on rail car contents and the safe handling of those materials
supplement railroads’ confidential reporting programs by joining the Federal Railroad Administration's voluntary C3RS program
“Since the East Palestine, Ohio train derailment, America’s freight railroads acted quickly and decisively to pursue voluntary actions to help prevent similar accidents from occurring in the future,” the AAR said in a January 26 release. “Over the past twelve months, the Class I railroads have kept, and in some cases exceeded, their promises, clearly demonstrating the industry’s commitment to lead, innovate and implement tangible safety solutions without waiting for mandates from Congress or regulators.”