By the numbers, fourth quarter shipment volume was down 4.7% compared to the prior quarter, while spending dropped 2.2%.
Geographically, fourth-quarter shipment volume was low across all regions. The Northeast had the smallest decline at 1.2% with the West just behind with a contraction of 2.1%. And the Southeast saw shipments drop 6.7%, the most of all regions, as hurricanes impacted freight activity.
“While this quarter’s Index revealed spending overall on truck freight continues to decline, we did see some signs that spending per truck is increasing,” said Bobby Holland, U.S. Bank director of freight business analytics. “Shipments falling more than spending – even with lower fuel surcharges – suggests tighter capacity.”
The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index measures quantitative changes in freight shipments and spend activity based on data from transactions processed through U.S. Bank Freight Payment, which processes more than $43 billion in freight payments annually for shippers and carriers across the U.S.
“It’s clear there are both cyclical and structural challenges remaining as we look for a truck freight market reboot,” Bob Costello, senior vice president and chief economist at the American Trucking Associations (ATA) said in a release on the results. “For instance, factory output softness – which has a disproportionate impact on truck freight volumes – is currently weighing heavily on our industry.”
Marine container carrying giants Maersk A/S and Hapag-Lloyd AG will begin their collaborative “Gemini Cooperation” project on Saturday, saying they will combine forces to deliver a flexible and interconnected ocean network with schedule reliability above 90% once it’s fully operational.
Around 340 vessels will ultimately be part of the shared ocean network, with the first sailings taking place on February 1, and more vessels gradually sailing on the new schedules over time.
That transition period is expected to last until late May, with vessels phasing into the new network, and out of the expiring agreements that Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have with other carriers. June will be the first full month in which the network is fully phased in with all vessels sailing on Gemini schedules, Maersk said.
“We are now ready to commence the phase-in of the new network. Over the last year, we have carefully planned this to ensure that all our customers experience a smooth transition into the new network. With its innovative design, we believe our customers will benefit from increased reliability, flexibility, and more competitive products,” says Johan Sigsgaard, Chief Product Officer of Ocean at Maersk.
That approach could also help to offset continued delays from geopolitical violence, as most global shipping lines continue to avoid the Suez Canal due to the threat of missiles flying in the Red Sea as a consequence of fighting between Israel and Hamas. Indeed, the Gemini network will also re-route away from the Mediterranean Sea by sailing around the Cape of Good Hope. The two partners say they will continue to monitor developments in the region and their impact on security, and only return to the Red Sea once it is safe to do so.
“Thanks to our effective hub & spoke operating system, we can deploy larger vessels and thus simultaneously optimize speed, reduce idling times, and thereby cutting down on carbon emissions. All of this saves our customers a lot of time and resources,” Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd, said in a release.
With the hourglass dwindling before steep tariffs threatened by the new Trump Administration will impose new taxes on U.S. companies importing goods from abroad, organizations need to deploy strategies to handle those spiraling costs.
American companies with far-flung supply chains have been hanging for weeks in a “wait-and-see” situation to learn if they will have to pay increased fees to U.S. Customs and Border Enforcement agents for every container they import from certain nations. After paying those levies, companies face the stark choice of either cutting their own profit margins or passing the increased cost on to U.S. consumers in the form of higher prices.
The impact could be particularly harsh for American manufacturers, according to Kerrie Jordan, Group Vice President, Product Management at supply chain software vendor Epicor. “If higher tariffs go into effect, imported goods will cost more,” Jordan said in a statement. “Companies must assess the impact of higher prices and create resilient strategies to absorb, offset, or reduce the impact of higher costs. For companies that import foreign goods, they will have to find alternatives or pay the tariffs and somehow offset the cost to the business. This can take the form of building up inventory before tariffs go into effect or finding an equivalent domestic alternative if they don’t want to pay the tariff.”
Tariffs could be particularly painful for U.S. manufacturers that import raw materials—such as steel, aluminum, or rare earth minerals—since the impact would have a domino effect throughout their operations, according to a statement from Matt Lekstutis, Director at consulting firm Efficio. “Based on the industry, there could be a large detrimental impact on a company's operations. If there is an increase in raw materials or a delay in those shipments, as being the first step in materials / supply chain process, there is the possibility of a ripple down effect into the rest of the supply chain operations,” Lekstutis said.
New tariffs could also hurt consumer packaged goods (CPG) retailers, which are already being hit by the mere threat of tariffs in the form of inventory fluctuations seen as companies have rushed many imports into the country before the new administration began, according to a report from Iowa-based third party logistics provider (3PL) JT Logistics. That jump in imported goods has quickly led to escalating demands for expanded warehousing, since CPG companies need a place to store all that material, Jamie Cord, president and CEO of JT Logistics, said in a release
Immediate strategies to cope with that disruption include adopting strategies that prioritize agility, including capacity planning and risk diversification by leveraging multiple fulfillment partners, and strategic inventory positioning across regional warehouses to bypass bottlenecks caused by trade restrictions, JT Logistics said. And long-term resilience recommendations include scenario-based planning, expanded supplier networks, inventory buffering, multimodal transportation solutions, and investment in automation and AI for insights and smarter operations, the firm said.
“Navigating the complexities of tariff-driven disruptions requires forward-thinking strategies,” Cord said. “By leveraging predictive modeling, diversifying warehouse networks, and strategically positioning inventory, JT Logistics is empowering CPG brands to remain adaptive, minimize risks, and remain competitive in the current dynamic market."
With so many variables at play, no company can predict the final impact of the potential Trump tariffs, so American companies should start planning for all potential outcomes at once, according to a statement from Nari Viswanathan, senior director of supply chain strategy at Coupa Software. Faced with layers of disruption—with the possible tariffs coming on top of pre-existing geopolitical conflicts and security risks—logistics hubs and businesses must prepare for any what-if scenario. In fact, the strongest companies will have scenarios planned as far out as the next three to five years, Viswanathan said.
Trade and transportation groups are congratulating Sean Duffy today for winning confirmation in a U.S. Senate vote to become the country’s next Secretary of Transportation.
Once he’s sworn in, Duffy will become the nation’s 20th person to hold that post, succeeding the recently departed Pete Buttigieg.
Transportation groups quickly called on Duffy to work on continuing the burst of long-overdue infrastructure spending that was a hallmark of the Biden Administration’s passing of the bipartisan infrastructure law, known formally as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA).
But according to industry associations such as the Coalition for America’s Gateways and Trade Corridors (CAGTC), federal spending is critical for funding large freight projects that sustain U.S. supply chains. “[Duffy] will direct the Department at an important time, implementing the remaining two years of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and charting a course for the next surface transportation reauthorization,” CAGTC Executive Director Elaine Nessle said in a release. “During his confirmation hearing, Secretary Duffy shared the new Administration’s goal to invest in large, durable projects that connect the nation and commerce. CAGTC shares this goal and is eager to work with Secretary Duffy to ensure that nationally and regionally significant freight projects are advanced swiftly and funded robustly.”
A similar message came from the International Foodservice Distributors Association (IFDA). “A safe, efficient, and reliable transportation network is essential to our industry, enabling 33 million cases of food and related products to reach professional kitchens every day. We look forward to working with Secretary Duffy to strengthen America’s transportation infrastructure and workforce to support the safe and seamless movement of ingredients that make meals away from home possible,” IFDA President and CEO Mark S. Allen said in a release.
And the truck drivers’ group the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) likewise called for continued investment in projects like creating new parking spaces for Class 8 trucks. “OOIDA and the 150,000 small business truckers we represent congratulate Secretary Sean Duffy on his confirmation to lead the U.S. Department of Transportation,” OOIDA President Todd Spencer said in a release. “We look forward to continue working with him in advancing the priorities of small business truckers across America, including expanding truck parking, fighting freight fraud, and rolling back burdensome, unnecessary regulations.”
With the new Trump Administration continuing to threaten steep tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China as early as February 1, supply chain organizations preparing for that economic shock must be prepared to make strategic responses that go beyond either absorbing new costs or passing them on to customers, according to Gartner Inc.
But even as they face what would be the most significant tariff changes proposed in the past 50 years, some enterprises could use the potential market volatility to drive a competitive advantage against their rivals, the analyst group said.
Gartner experts said the risks of acting too early to proposed tariffs—and anticipated countermeasures by trading partners—are as acute as acting too late. Chief supply chain officers (CSCOs) should be projecting ahead to potential countermeasures, escalations and de-escalations as part of their current scenario planning activities.
“CSCOs who anticipate that current tariff volatility will persist for years, rather than months, should also recognize that their business operations will not emerge successful by remaining static or purely on the defensive,” Brian Whitlock, Senior Research Director in Gartner’s supply chain practice, said in a release.
“The long-term winners will reinvent or reinvigorate their business strategies, developing new capabilities that drive competitive advantage. In almost all cases, this will require material business investment and should be a focal point of current scenario planning,” Whitlock said.
Gartner listed five possible pathways for CSCOs and other leaders to consider when faced with new tariff policy changes:
Retire certain products: Tariff volatility will stress some specific products, or even organizations, to a breaking point, so some enterprises may have to accept that worsening geopolitical conditions should force the retirement of that product.
Renovate products to adjust: New tariffs could prompt renovations (adjustments) to products that were overdue, as businesses will need to take a hard look at the viability of raising or absorbing costs in a still price-sensitive environment.
Rebalance: Additional volatility should be factored into future demand planning, as early winners and losers from initial tariff policies must both be prepared for potential countermeasures, policy escalations and de-escalations, and competitor responses.
Reinvent: As tariff volatility persists, some companies should consider investing in new projects in markets that are not impacted or that align with new geopolitical incentives. Others may pivot and repurpose existing facilities to serve local markets.
Reinvigorate: Early winners of announced tariffs should seek opportunities to extend competitive advantages. For example, they could look to expand existing US-based or domestic manufacturing capacity or reposition themselves within the market by lowering their prices to take market share and drive business growth.
Artificial intelligence (AI) and the economy were hot topics on the opening day of SMC3 Jump Start 25, a less-than-truckload (LTL)-focused supply chain event taking place in Atlanta this week. The three-day event kicked off Monday morning to record attendance, with more than 700 people registered, according to conference planners.
The event opened with a keynote presentation from AI futurist Zack Kass, former head of go to market for OpenAI. He talked about the evolution of AI as well as real-world applications of the technology, furthering his mission to demystify AI and make it accessible and understandable to people everywhere. Kass is a speaker and consultant who works with businesses and governments around the world.
The opening day also featured a slate of economic presentations, including a global economic outlook from Dr. Jeff Rosensweig, director of the John Robson Program for Business, Public Policy, and Government at Emory University, and a “State of LTL” report from economist Keith Prather, managing director of Armada Corporate Intelligence. Both speakers pointed to a strong economy as 2025 gets underway, emphasizing overall economic optimism and strong momentum in LTL markets.
Other highlights included interviews with industry leaders Chris Jamroz and Rick DiMaio. Jamroz is executive chairman of the board and CEO of Roadrunner Transportation Systems, and DiMaio is executive vice president of supply chain for Ace Hardware.
Jump Start 25 runs through Wednesday, January 29, at the Renaissance Atlanta Waverly Hotel & Convention Center.