A monthly measure of trucking business conditions rose steadily in November to reach its strongest level since April of 2022, Bloomington, Indiana-based FTR said today.
The measure marks the latest sign that the beleaguered freight trucking sector may be bounding back from a two-year recession caused by a surplus of capacity. Earlier this month, the financial analyst firm TD Cowen shared survey results showing that trucking freight carriers are continuing to expect a recovery of long-depressed spot rates by the second half of 2025.
FTR’s measure of carrier market conditions was based on its Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) for November, which rose to a 3.02 reading from 0.49 in October. The improved TCI stems from lower fuel costs and less challenging rates, partially offset by weaker utilization. FTR still expects the truck freight market to be consistently favorable for carriers by the second quarter of 2025, but the outlook is somewhat softer than it was previously due to weaker growth forecasts for freight demand, utilization, and rates.
“A few outliers aside, our forecast indicates positive TCI readings over the next couple of years, but it does not show the index more favorable for carriers than it was in November until the third quarter of this year,” Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said in a release.
“The first half of 2025 still looks to be one of transition from the tough market of the past couple of years to one in which carriers have greater ability to achieve a desirable margin. We will be watching Trump administration policy initiatives closely for any developments that might shift the trajectory of the truck freight market,” Vise said.
The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. Combined into a single index number, a positive score represents good, optimistic conditions while a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions.
