Ben Ames has spent 20 years as a journalist since starting out as a daily newspaper reporter in Pennsylvania in 1995. From 1999 forward, he has focused on business and technology reporting for a number of trade journals, beginning when he joined Design News and Modern Materials Handling magazines. Ames is author of the trail guide "Hiking Massachusetts" and is a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism.
According to FedEx, the proposed breakup will create flexibility for the two companies to handle the separate demands of the global parcel and the LTL markets. That approach will enable FedEx and FedEx Freight to deploy more customized operational execution, along with more tailored investment and capital allocation strategies. At the same time, the two companies will continue to cooperate on commercial, operational, and technology initiatives.
Following the split, FedEx Freight will become the industry’s largest LTL carrier, with revenue of $9.4 billion in fiscal 2024. The company also boasts the broadest network and fastest transit times in its industry, the company said.
After spinning of that business, the remaining FedEx units will have a combined revenue of $78.3 billion based on fiscal year 2024 results for its range of time- and day-definite delivery and related supply chain technology services to more than 220 countries and territories through an integrated air-ground express network.
The move comes after FedEx has operated its freight unit for decades. After launching in 1971 as an overnight air courier service, FedEx grew quickly and in 1998 acquired Caliber System inc., creating a transportation “powerhouse” comprising the traditional FedEx distribution service and small-package ground carrier RPS, LTL carrier Viking Freight, Caliber Logistics, Caliber Technology, and Roberts Express. And in 2006, FedEx acquires Watkins Motor Lines, enhancing FedEx Freight’s ability to serve customers in the long-haul LTL freight market.
FedEx share prices rose after the announcement, as investors cheered a resolution to the debate that had lingered since June about whether the event would happen, according to a statement from Bascome Majors, a market analyst with Susquehanna Financial Group. And FedEx Freight will become a major player in the sector, based on its 16% share of industry revenue in 2023, well above Old Dominion Freight Lines (ODFL)’s 10% and SAIA’s 5%, he said.
Likewise, TD Cowen issued a “buy” rating for FedEx based on the long-awaited move, according to Jason Seidl, senior analyst focused on rail, trucking and logistics. That came as investors were soothed about their worries of potential “dis-synergies” from the split by the detail that FedEx Freight and legacy FDX have signed agreements that will continue the connectivity of the two networks.
Jason Seidl has been in the trucking business for the better part of 30 years, first working on the front lines in freight operations, then moving to the investment community, where today he’s managing director and senior transportation analyst for investment firm TD Cowen. Through all that time and all the different business cycles he’s experienced, he hasn’t witnessed anything like the current market cycle. “I’ve never seen a downturn that’s lasted this long,” Seidl says.
Part of the reason, he believes, is the “crazy period” the markets lived through during the pandemic and post-pandemic cycles, and the supply chain crises that resulted.
“A ton of carriers rushed in [to the truckload market] and would have left earlier, but they are hanging in longer because of an infusion of government stimulus money,” which helped shore up their balance sheets and enabled them to weather the downturn.
The other piece: “There are more brokers in the market today with better technology, and that has provided [truckload] carriers with other options to find freight, all of which has kept them in the market longer than they normally would have [stayed].”
Andy Dyer, president of transportation management for nonasset-based third-party service provider AFS Logistics, agrees. “We lived through a post-pandemic demand bubble the likes of which most of us had never seen,” he says, recalling a time when trucks were so scarce, he was posting loads at $9 a mile. “The bubble hit, capacity surged to meet it, and even though demand is starting to normalize, we are still oversupplied.”
He echoes Seidl’s point about the rising role of brokers and other nonasset-based intermediaries. “Back in the 1990s, brokering in the freight space accounted for 5% of transactions,” he says. “Post-pandemic, that’s now over 20%. I am convinced that absent a seismic demand event, we will not get corrected on the price side until we have a meaningful and sustained supply side correction.”
It’s a sluggish market where industrial production is weak, with the monthly ISM (Institute for Supply Management) report in June again going negative, marking 19 out of the last 20 months with a score of under 50, which is considered in contraction territory. Yet “the consumer looks OK … for now,” says Seidl.
CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM
Interviews with fleet operators confirm that they’re essentially all facing those challenges but also reveal some cautious optimism that the bottom has been reached and the market is about to turn. “For the truckload segment, demand has yet to truly break out, and further attrition of excess capacity is still needed,” said Adam Miller, chief executive officer at Knight-Swift Holdings Inc., the nation’s largest truckload carrier, in the company’s recent second-quarter earnings call.
And while he noted that the company has a long way to go to return to its target performance levels, Miller sees reason for hope. “It is starting to feel like the bottom is behind us for this cycle,” he said, adding “if trends over the past few months continue, we should see demand building as we exit the third quarter and some return of seasonal activity for the fourth quarter for the first time in years.”
It has been a tough economy for truckers, yet at less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), the news isn’t all bad. “We are managing to grow our market share, and we do that by providing what customers perceive as solid value for their transportation dollar,” says Greg Plemmons, ODFL’s executive vice president and chief operating officer. “We have established a premium offering, and the good news is there is always a market for quality service,” he adds.
The toughest task? Managing in an environment where costs across the board continue to rise. “We feel the same inflationary pressures as our customers—and we all—do,” Plemmons says. Nevertheless, he notes that as the year has proceeded, ODFL has been able to secure “modest” rate increases—“maybe a bit less in 2024 in terms of percentage with our contract customers, but still solid.”
And while it’s always difficult to call a market turn, “we feel like we are bottoming out as an industry,” with growth returning “to something we’re more accustomed to” in the second half of the year and into 2025, Plemmons adds. “My crystal ball is a little fuzzy right now, but if conversations we’re having with customers are any indication, they are feeling more optimistic [today] than they have in the past year and a half.”
ODFL isn’t letting its foot off the investment gas pedal, either. Its CapEx for this year will come in at around $750 million between rolling stock, facilities, IT, freight handling equipment, and other needs, according to Plemmons. This year, the company is opening six new service centers, ending the year with 261 terminals, which represents an increase of about 9% in capacity for the network. It also has some 100 real estate projects under way or on the drawing board. “It’s never a dull moment” on the real estate side, he says. “You can’t wait around until you need them; you have to start well in advance.”
Plemmons says ODFL strives to maintain “about 25% excess capacity [now closer to 30%], so maybe we are the best positioned to handle a turn in the economy when it comes—and it certainly will come.”
A “MODEST” RECOVERY ON THE HORIZON?
With economic headlines providing a mixed bag of news—signs of the economy’s resilience, the prospect of weaker employment and wage growth, and the likelihood of a larger and earlier Fed rate cut—these economic issues are inevitably entering more conversations, notes Avery Vise, vice president of trucking for FTR Transportation Intelligence.
“Putting aside the headlines, our overall forecast is for a pretty modest recovery this year,” with 2024 volumes up 1.6% year over year—“solid but nothing to be excited about,” Vise says. He adds that he sees next year shaping up to be a bit stronger, with growth on the order of 2.4%.
The big issue, as it has been for the past two years, continues to be overcapacity. “We still have something on the order of 95,000 more for-hire carriers [primarily truckload operators with no more than two trucks] today than before the pandemic, about 37% more.” That increase in the carrier population also accounts for “the majority of the roughly 250,000 more drivers in the market today versus prepandemic,” Vise adds. “There is still a lot of excess capacity to match up against increasing freight demand.”
Yet he believes “we are in the mechanics of recovery.” He cites FTR’s estimates of “active” utilization (i.e., the utilization of trucks with drivers), which is FTR’s core metric for assessing market tightness and which represents a measure of the number of trucks needed to haul the freight that’s available. “That’s coming off a trough [last year] and has been trending up most of this year,” he notes.
He expects that by this year’s fourth quarter, “we will be in line with the 10-year average for utilization of 92%.” Vise further projects that in the first and second quarters of 2025, active utilization industrywide will reach 95%. “And that is when you get significant upward pressure on rates,” he notes.
STRUCTURAL CHANGES UPENDING THE MARKET
Then there are the effects of structural factors that are changing the market long term, what Vise calls “a permanent shift in capacity from larger to smaller carriers operating in the spot market on behalf of brokers.” It’s a fundamental change in how the market operates, he says, adding “it’s not just that we have overcapacity but why?”
A lot of that has to do with the rise of intermediaries—brokers and freight forwarders—using flexible and more sophisticated digital freight platforms. “They have visibility they’ve never had before into where those small carriers are, what hours of service they have available and when, their preferred routes and loads, and where they want to go next.”
Vise cites as well some revealing data on empty miles from the annual truck costing report published by ATRI (the American Transportation Research Institute). “The average empty mile percentage for the entire for-hire industry was somewhere between 14% and 15%,” he notes. “But empty miles for smaller carriers was lower, 10%.”
“That’s counterintuitive. Technology has changed that,” he’s observed. “You [the small one- or two-truck carrier] can program in your ‘wish list’ of loads, which then pop up [on your smartphone] based on the preferences you set up and the algorithms behind the app.”
These digital planning and execution tools are not just conveniently available on a driver’s smartphone, they’re also extremely effective at quickly and accurately matching loads to trucks in near real time. “Drivers have more ability to find the loads they want faster. If you can get one or two more loads a week and cut down on empty miles, that can offset the impact of stagnant rates,” Vise says.
All in all, planning and forecasting for truckers has become that much more fluid and difficult, fraught with more uncertainty than ever, Vise says. “Everyone wants to analyze the market based on what’s happened in the past, but that’s not working,” he explains. “There have been so many structural changes that people have not dealt with before; that makes relying on historical norms inaccurate, if not downright dangerous.”
GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE
Two other carriers that aren’t letting the stubborn freight recession curtail their expansion plans are LTL truckers A. Duie Pyle and Estes Express Lines.
“Rates are relatively stable, and there is decent pricing discipline in the market,” notes John Luciani, chief operating officer of LTL solutions for Pyle, adding that over the first half of the year, the carrier’s shipment count per day was up about 11%. “Retail is probably driving a lot of the activity right now. Shipment size is down, while bill [of lading] count is up. [Retailers are] buying [and shipping] in smaller quantities as inventory levels continue to contract.”
At the same time, “customers are clawing back some of the accessorial [charges] and are really focused on minimizing costs where they can,” Luciani adds. And they are testing the market. “Customers who have volume are leveraging that. We are seeing some rate pressure from customers taking their business out to bid,” he notes.
That’s not stopping Pyle from growing its network. The Northeast-focused carrier has added 77 doors at its Maspeth, New York, facility to complement capacity at its New York City terminal in the Bronx. It also bought new terminal properties in Camp Hill and Erie, Pennsylvania; Rochester, New York; and Bridgeport, West Virginia. It will end the year with 34 terminals, and a workforce of 1,200 pickup and delivery drivers and 400 linehaul drivers serving the Northeast U.S.
Webb Estes, president and chief operating officer at LTL carrier Estes Express Lines, has a simple definition of a freight recession: “when freight [volume] is less than it was the year before.”
In the current environment, “it feels more like we just came off a mountaintop of demand. We were on a really big high for a couple of years,” he recalls. Now, Estes is dealing with a market where “we are trying to figure out what the new normal is.”
The last two years have brought unprecedented challenges for a company Webb’s great grandfather founded four generations ago, in 1931. “After [living] through the Covid onslaught, then a booming market, then YRC going out of business, and then a cyberattack, we feel we can handle whatever comes our way,” he notes. “We have built a gritty and resilient team that thrives on challenge.”
Estes was a big participant in the auction for YRC’s assets. The company ended up acquiring (by purchase or lease assumption) 36 terminal properties as well as purchasing 6,800 YRC trailers, which have nearly all been rebranded with Estes livery.
The company has added 24% more dock doors to its network over the past three years. So far this year, Estes has brought online an additional 452 doors and plans to get that number up to 1,430 by the end of the year. That’s from building and acquiring new terminals as well as expansions at existing facilities.
“We have been able to create the capacity we needed to respond to customers in the post-YRC environment,” Estes notes. The company will end the year with a network of 280 terminals supporting 22,000 employees operating 10,400 tractors and 40,000 trailers.
As for peak season, “the only nuance about this peak season is that it will be shorter,” Estes says. “Thanksgiving is on the 28th, so we have five fewer days [between Thanksgiving and Christmas] than last year. This year will have the shortest window between [the two holidays].”
LOOK AHEAD, NOT BACK
All downcycles eventually flip. Yet in the view of Jim Fields, chief operating officer for LTL carrier Pitt Ohio, the key is “to look forward, not back, regardless of what is happening to the economy.”
Fields and his team are focused on two primary objectives to improve the business and cement the support of Pitt Ohio’s customers: strategically applying technology that further digitizes the business—particularly automating back-office functions and eliminating wasteful manual work like rekeying data or scanning documents—and hiring and retaining the best team of people possible.
Even with technology increasingly automating many parts of trucking, “this is still a people business,” emphasizes Fields. “We want the best, most professional, safest drivers. Dock workers who take care of the freight as if it were their own. Managers and supervisors who help our employees grow and succeed, and who treat them with respect.
“We want to take advantage of the different skill sets of our employees to advance the capabilities of the company and the services we provide to customers,” Fields adds. “When we’re successful at that, we all win.”
The freight and logistics company Forward Air Corp. continues to come under pressure from investors who are dissatisfied with its disputed acquisition of logistics service provider Omni Logistics LLC seven months ago.
The fraught acquisition only went through after Dallas-based Omni prevailed in a court fight, forcing Forward Air tried to honor its offer to buy the firm for $3.2 billion despite subsequent efforts to back out of the deal.
Executives from the two firms say the intent of the merger was to create a combined company that would be the category leader in the expedited less than truckload (LTL) freight sector.
However, on Tuesday the financial firm Ancora Holdings Group LLC—which owns a 4% stake in the company, making it a top 10 shareholder—called the deal a debt-funded acquisition that has “wiped out a tremendous amount of shareholder value.” To repair that alleged damage, Ancora is urging the Forward Air board of directors to take the company private by accepting a bid from the private equity firm Clearlake Capital Group, which is already Forward Air's second-largest owner with a 13.8% stake.
And if board members do not explore the offer, Ancora threatened to mount an effort to replace them. “In the event such overwhelming consensus is ignored, we expect there will be a formidable campaign to replace several members of the Board – particularly those who pushed through this year’s disastrous acquisition – at the 2025 Annual Meeting of Shareholders,” the Ancora letter said. “While a sale may not be your first choice, prioritizing shareholders’ interests and protecting them from more permanent value destruction must be your top priority.”
An upgrade of its supply chain visibility software by project44 will help to drive adoption of electronic bill of lading (eBOL) data across the less-than-truckload (LTL) industry, the Chicago-based firm said today.
For every pick-up request processed by project44, eBOL data will be automatically sent to carriers – without customers needing to build new API endpoints. By enabling customers to seamlessly adopt the new eBOL standards, project44 says it is advancing the National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) LTL Digital Council's vision of industry-wide digitization and improved supply chain efficiency.
Historically, shippers, carriers and logistics service providers (LSPs) relied on paper bills of lading, requiring the manual transfer of information into a digital format. That error-prone process can result in limited real-time visibility, reduced tracking quality, freight delays, and high overhead costs due to billing complexity and disputes. But using eBOL instead enables shippers/LSPs and carriers to exchange accurate, concise data hours earlier – mitigating exceptions upstream, decreasing delays, and automating billing processes, project44 said.
"project44 has been instrumental in digitizing the LTL shipment lifecycle, helping to drive efficiency, accuracy, and operational excellence for the entire LTL ecosystem," Paul Dugent, executive director of the Digital LTL Council, said in a release. "Their adoption and promotion of the standard electronic Bill of Lading (eBOL) is a notable example of this progress, as they currently have the highest number of customer shipping locations leveraging eBOL among adopters. We also appreciate project44's role in establishing the original LTL Digital Council, which has since evolved into the industry group the NMFTA now stewards."
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Transcript to come
About this week's guest
John Lash is the group vice president of product strategy at e2open, where he is responsible for creating the long-term vision for a connected supply chain that aims to help large companies serve more people more efficiently with fewer resources. Previously, he led product marketing, including analyst relations, competitive intelligence and environmental, social, and governance (ESG)-related product initiatives.
Lash has held leadership positions in the environmental sustainability, technology, and data communications industries, with more than 30 years of experience in business development, strategy, sales, marketing, and mergers and acquisitions.
Government regulations and the push for a greener supply chain were top issues at SMC3 Connections, an industry event held in Colorado this week.
A record 550 people turned out for the meeting, held at The Broadmoor in Colorado Springs. The conference featured three days of networking events, presentations, and workshops focused trucking, logistics, and supply chain issues.
Among the featured speakers was former U.S. Secretary of Transportation James H. Burnley, IV, who spoke to members on day three of the event. Burnley served as Secretary of Transportation under President Ronald Reagan from 1987 to 1989.
Citing a burdensome regulatory environment, Burnley urged attendees to get involved in issues that affect their businesses—promoting a “loud but measured” approach to advocating for sound business policies.
“What is happening in Washington will affect your bottom line,” he said. “It already does … and the only way you can guard against it getting as bad [as possible] is to be outspoken. It’s worth the trouble to have your views known. If you don’t and you get bad outcomes—that’s partly your responsibility.
“You will find them [policymakers] doing things out of outright ignorance [of your business] or that philosophically are inconsistent with free market values that I think probably everyone in the room shares. You’ve got to make your voices heard.”
Commenting on the country’s political climate, Burnley said it’s likely Republicans will gain a narrow majority in the Senate this November, which could help ease some of the regulatory pressures facing the industry.
Burnley’s presentation was part of SMC3’s leadership series of interviews with industry experts on the latest trends, business strategies, corporate culture, and technologies shaping the future of trucking and supply chain management. The leadership series also included interviews with Satish Jindel of SJ Consulting Group, Jay Silberkleit of XPO, and Rebecca Brewster of the American Transportation Research Institute.
Another headline presentation on day three featured Jim Mullen of the Clean Freight Coalition, who discussed the many legislative and regulatory environmental challenges facing the industry—including state and federal mandates for transitioning to zero-emission, battery electric vehicles.
Mullen outlined the purpose behind the Clean Freight Coalition, which was formed just over a year ago to represent trucking carriers, manufacturers, and dealers in the move to lower transportation industry emissions. Mullen said the group’s main purpose is to educate industry stakeholders, the public, and policymakers about the trucking industry’s efforts to become better stewards of the environment—in the past and for the future. He pointed to the industry’s progress to date: Truck engines manufactured today emit 98% less nitrogen oxide and particulate matter than those built 35 years ago, according to Clean Freight Coalition data. The group also advocates “sound policies toward zero-emission trucks”—which includes cautioning against the current one-pronged approach favoring battery-electric vehicles.
“We believe timelines by [the federal government and states such as California] are too aggressive and unattainable, so we are pushing back on those regulations,” Mullen said, referring to recent proposals that would tighten emissions standards and put more battery-powered trucks on the road.
Mullen referenced a recent Clean Freight Coalition study that points to the high cost of electrifying the nation’s truck fleet as opposed to implementing alternative solutions, such as biodiesel, renewable natural gas, and hydrogen fuel cell technology.
“Most folks want to do the right thing … they all want to have cleaner trucks,” Mullen said. “We’re really trying to get the word out to policy makers and stakeholders that there are alternative solutions—that are better for the environment and that [are available] today.”