Maersk’s overall view of the coming year is that the global economy is expected to grow modestly, with the possibility of higher inflation caused by lingering supply chain issues, continued geopolitical tensions, and fiscal policies such as new tariffs. Geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions could threaten global stability, climate change action will continue to shape international cooperation, and the ongoing security issue in the Red Sea is expected to continue into 2025.
Those are difficult challenges, but according to Maersk, a vital part of logistics planning is understanding where risk and weak spots might be and finding ways to dampen the impact of inevitable hurdles.
They include:
1. Build a resilient supply chain As opposed to simply maintaining traditional network designs, Maersk says it is teaming with Hapag-Lloyd to implement a new East-West network called Gemini, beginning in February, 2025. The network will use leaner mainliners and shuttles together, allowing for isolation of port disruptions, minimizing the impact of disruptions to supply chains and routes. More broadly, companies should work with an integrated logistics partner that has multiple solutions—be they by air, truck, barge or rail—allowing supply chains to adapt around issues, while still meeting consumer demands.
2. Implementing technological advances
A key component in ensuring more resilience against disruptions is working with a supply chain supplier that offers advanced real-time tracking systems and AI-powered analytics to provide comprehensive visibility across supply chains. An AI-powered dashboard of analytics can provide end-to-end visibility of shipments, tasks, and updates, enabling efficient logistics management without the need to chase down data. Also, forecasting tools can give predictive analytics to optimize inventory, reduce waste, and enhance efficiency. And incorporating Internet of Things (IoT) into digital solutions can enable live tracking of containers to monitor shipments.
3. Preparing for anything, instead of everything Contingency planning was a big theme for 2024, and remains so for 2025. That need is highlighted by geopolitical instability, climate change and volatility, and changes to tariffs and legislation. So in 2025, businesses should seek to partner with a logistics partner that offers risk and disruption navigation through pre-planned procedures, risk assessments, and alternative solutions.
4. Diversifying all aspects of the supply chain Supply chains have felt the impact of disruption throughout 2024, with the situation in the Red Sea resulting in all shipping having to avoid the Suez Canal, and instead going around the Cape of Good Hope. This has increased demand throughout the year, resulting in businesses trying to move cargo earlier to ensure they can meet customer needs, and even considering nearshoring. As regionalization has become more prevalent, businesses can use nearshoring to diversify suppliers and reduce their dependency on single sources. By ensuring that these suppliers and manufacturers are closer to the consumer market, businesses can keep production costs lower as well as have more ease of reaching markets and avoid delay-related risks from global disruptions. Utilizing options closer to market can also allow companies to better adapt to changes in consumer needs and behavior. Finally, some companies may also find it useful to stock critical materials for future, to act as a buffer against unexpected delays and/or issues relating to trade embargoes.
5. Understanding tariffs, legislation and regulations 2024 was year of customs regulations in EU. And tariffs are expected in the U.S. as well, once the new Trump Administration takes office. However, consistent with President-elect Trump’s first term, threats of increases are often used as a negotiating tool. So companies should take a wait and see approach to U.S. customs, even as they cope with the certainty that further EU customs are set to come into play.
Global trade will see a moderate rebound in 2025, likely growing by 3.6% in volume terms, helped by companies restocking and households renewing purchases of durable goods while reducing spending on services, according to a forecast from trade credit insurer Allianz Trade.
The end of the year for 2024 will also likely be supported by companies rushing to ship goods in anticipation of the higher tariffs likely to be imposed by the coming Trump administration, and other potential disruptions in the coming quarters, the report said.
However, that tailwind for global trade will likely shift to a headwind once the effects of a renewed but contained trade war are felt from the second half of 2025 and in full in 2026. As a result, Allianz Trade has throttled back its predictions, saying that global trade in volume will grow by 2.8% in 2025 (reduced by 0.2 percentage points vs. its previous forecast) and 2.3% in 2026 (reduced by 0.5 percentage points).
The same logic applies to Allianz Trade’s forecast for export prices in U.S. dollars, which the firm has now revised downward to predict growth reaching 2.3% in 2025 (reduced by 1.7 percentage points) and 4.1% in 2026 (reduced by 0.8 percentage points).
In the meantime, the rush to frontload imports into the U.S. is giving freight carriers an early Christmas present. According to Allianz Trade, data released last week showed Chinese exports rising by a robust 6.7% y/y in November. And imports of some consumer goods that have been threatened with a likely 25% tariff under the new Trump administration have outperformed even more, growing by nearly 20% y/y on average between July and September.
Declaring that it is furthering its mission to advance supply chain excellence across the globe, the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) today announced the launch of seven new International Roundtables.
The new groups have been established in Mexico City, Monterrey, Guadalajara, Toronto, Panama City, Lisbon, and Sao Paulo. They join CSCMP’s 40 existing roundtables across the U.S. and worldwide, with each one offering a way for members to grow their knowledge and practice professional networking within their state or region. Overall, CSCMP roundtables produce over 200 events per year—such as educational events, networking events, or facility tours—attracting over 6,000 attendees from 3,000 companies worldwide, the group says.
“The launch of these seven Roundtables is a testament to CSCMP’s commitment to advancing supply chain innovation and fostering professional growth globally,” Mark Baxa, President and CEO of CSCMP, said in a release. “By extending our reach into Latin America, Canada and enhancing our European Union presence, and beyond, we’re not just growing our community—we’re strengthening the global supply chain network. This is how we equip the next generation of leaders and continue shaping the future of our industry.”
The new roundtables in Mexico City and Monterrey will be inaugurated in early 2025, following the launch of the Guadalajara Roundtable in 2024, said Javier Zarazua, a leader in CSCMP’s Latin America initiatives.
“As part of our growth strategy, we have signed strategic agreements with The Logistics World, the largest logistics publishing company in Latin America; Tec Monterrey, one of the largest universities in Latin America; and Conalog, the association for Logistics Executives in Mexico,” Zarazua said. “Not only will supply chain and logistics professionals benefit from these strategic agreements, but CSCMP, with our wealth of content, research, and network, will contribute to enhancing the industry not only in Mexico but across Latin America.”
Likewse, the Lisbon Roundtable marks the first such group in Portugal and the 10th in Europe, noted Miguel Serracanta, a CSCMP global ambassador from that nation.
North American manufacturers have begun stockpiling goods to buffer against the impact of potential tariffs threatened by incoming Trump Administration, building up safety stocks to guard against higher imported costs, according to a report from New Jersey business software firm GEP.
That surge in orders has sparked a jump in production, shrinking the level of spare capacity in global supply chains to its lowest level since June, the firm said in its “GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index.” By the numbers, that index rose to -0.20 in November, from -0.39 the month before, based on GEP’s measurement of demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs from its monthly survey of 27,000 businesses.
Another impact of the trend has been to trigger a surge in procurement activity by manufacturers in Asia—especially China—as new orders rebounded sharply. Only India reported a greater rise in raw material purchases than China in November. And preparations to ramp up production even further were evidenced data showing factory procurement activity across Asia rising at its fastest pace for three-and-a-half years, GEP said.
In sharp contrast, Europe's industrial recession worsened in November, in large part due to Germany's deepening manufacturing downturn. Factories in that region went deeper into retrenchment mode, as demand for inputs from manufacturers in Europe was its weakest since December 2023.
"In November, U.S. manufacturers, particularly in the consumer goods sector, increased their safety stocks to help blunt any immediate tariff increases," John Piatek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "In contrast, Chinese manufacturers are getting busier as a result of government stimulus and growth in exports, led by automotives and technology products. Strategically, many global companies have a wait-and-hope approach, while simultaneously planning to remake their global supply chains to respond to a tariff and trade war in 2025 and beyond."
Retailers are under pressure from threats on two fronts heading into January as they frontload cargo imports in a bid to avoid the potential pain of a resumed East and Gulf coast dockworker strike and of broad tariffs being proposed by the incoming Trump administration, according to a report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
The report forecasts that the nation’s major container ports are expected to see a continued surge in imports through next spring, as importers rush to beat the impact of a container port strike as soon as January 15 and of tariff hikes as soon as January 20, researchers said.
“Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy and retailers are doing what they can to avoid the impact of either for as long as they can,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a release. “We hope that both can be avoided, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent step to mitigate the impact on our industry, consumers and the nation’s economy. We call on both parties at the ports to return to the table, get a deal done and avoid a strike. And we call on the incoming administration to use tariffs in a strategic manner rather than a broad-based approach impacting everyday consumer goods.”
By the numbers, U.S. ports covered by NRF and Hackett’s “Global Port Tracker” report handled 2.25 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in October, although the Port of Miami has yet to report final data. That was down 1.2% from September but up 9.3% year over year.
Ports have not yet reported November’s numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.17 million TEU, up 14.4% year over year. December is forecast at 2.14 million TEU, up 14.3% year over year. That would bring 2024 to 25.6 million TEU, up 14.8% from 2023. In comparison, before the October strike and November’s elections, November had been forecast at 1.91 million TEU and December at 1.88 million TEU, while the total for 2024 was forecast at 24.9 million TEU.
The report provides data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
Asia Pacific origin markets are continuing to contribute an outsize share of worldwide air cargo growth this year, generating more than half (56%) of the global +12% year-on-year (YoY) increase in tonnages in the first 10 months of 2024, according to an analysis by WorldACD Market Data.
The region’s strong contribution this year means Asia Pacific’s share of worldwide outbound tonnages overall has risen two percentage points to 41% from 39% last year, well ahead of Europe on 24%, Central & South America on 14%, Middle East & South Asia (MESA) with 9% of global volumes, North America’s 8%, and Africa’s 4%.
Not only does the Asia Pacific region have the largest market share, but it also has the fastest growth, Netherlands-based WorldACD said. After origin Asia Pacific with its 56% share of global tonnage growth this year, Europe came in as the second origin region accounting for a much lower 17% of global tonnage growth. That was followed closely by the MESA region, which contributed 14% of outbound tonnage growth this year despite its small size, bolstered by traffic shifting to air this year due to continuing disruptions to the region’s ocean freight markets caused by violence in the vital Red Sea corridor to the Suez Canal.
The types of freight that are driving Asia Pacific dominance in air freight exports begin with “general cargo” contributing almost two thirds (64%) of this year’s growth, boosted by large volumes of e-commerce traffic flying consolidated as general cargo. After that, “special cargo” generated 36%, with 80% of that portion consisting of the vulnerables/high-tech product category.
Among the top 5 individual airport or city origin growth markets, the world’s busiest air cargo gateway Hong Kong also remained the biggest single generator of YoY outbound growth in October, as it has for much of this year. Hong Kong’s +15% YoY tonnage increase generated around twice the growth in absolute chargeable weight of second-placed Miami, even though the latter had recorded +31% YoY growth compared with its tonnages in October last year. Dubai was the third-biggest outbound growth market, thanks to its +45% YoY increase in October, closely followed by Shanghai and Tokyo.
And on the inverse side of the that trendline, the top 5 YoY decreases in inbound tonnages were recorded in Teheran, Beirut, Beijing, Dhaka, and Zaragoza. Notably, Teheran’s and Beirut’s inbound tonnages almost completely wiped out as most commercial flights to and from Iran and Lebanon were suspended last month amid Middle East violence; tonnages at both airports were down by -96%, YoY, in October. Other location that saw steep declines included Dhaka, Beirut and Zaragoza – affected by political unrest, conflict, and flooding, respectively –followed by China’s Qingdao and Mexico’s Guadalajara.