Susan Lacefield has been working for supply chain publications since 1999. Before joining DC VELOCITY, she was an associate editor for Supply Chain Management Review and wrote for Logistics Management magazine. She holds a master's degree in English.
There’s a photo from 1971 that John Kent, professor of supply chain management at the University of Arkansas, likes to show. It’s of a shaggy-haired 18-year-old named Glenn Cowan grinning at three-time world table tennis champion Zhuang Zedong, while holding a silk tapestry Zhuang had just given him. Cowan was a member of the U.S. table tennis team who participated in the 1971 World Table Tennis Championships in Nagoya, Japan. Story has it that one morning, he overslept and missed his bus to the tournament and had to hitch a ride with the Chinese national team and met and connected with Zhuang.
Cowan and Zhuang’s interaction led to an invitation for the U.S. team to visit China. At the time, the two countries were just beginning to emerge from a 20-year period of decidedly frosty relations, strict travel bans, and trade restrictions. The highly publicized trip signaled a willingness on both sides to renew relations and launched the term “pingpong diplomacy.”
Kent, who is a senior fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations, believes the photograph is a good reminder that some 50-odd years ago, the economies of the United States and China were not as tightly interwoven as they are today. At the time, the Nixon administration was looking to form closer political and economic ties between the two countries in hopes of reducing chances of future conflict (and to weaken alliances among Communist countries).
The signals coming out of Washington and Beijing are now, of course, much different than they were in the early 1970s. Instead of advocating for better relations, political rhetoric focuses on the need for the U.S. to “decouple” from China. Both Republicans and Democrats have warned that the U.S. economy is too dependent on goods manufactured in China. They see this dependency as a threat to economic strength, American jobs, supply chain resiliency, and national security.
Supply chain professionals, however, know that extricating ourselves from our reliance on Chinese manufacturing is easier said than done. Many pundits push for a “China + 1” strategy, where companies diversify their manufacturing and sourcing options beyond China. But in reality, that “plus one” is often a Chinese company operating in a different country or a non-Chinese manufacturer that is still heavily dependent on material or subcomponents made in China.
This is the problem when supply chain decisions are made on a global scale without input from supply chain professionals. In an article in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Kent argues that, “The discussions on supply chains mainly take place between government officials who typically bring many other competing issues and agendas to the table. Corporate entities—the individuals and companies directly impacted by supply chains—tend to be under-represented in the conversation.”
Kent is a proponent of what he calls “supply chain diplomacy,” where experts from academia and industry from the U.S. and China work collaboratively to create better, more efficient global supply chains. Take, for example, the “Peace Beans” project that Kent is involved with. This project, jointly formed by Zhejiang University and the Bush China Foundation, proposes balancing supply chains by exporting soybeans from Arkansas to tofu producers in China’s Yunnan province, and, in return, importing coffee beans grown in Yunnan to coffee roasters in Arkansas. Kent believes the operation could even use the same transportation equipment.
The benefits of working collaboratively—instead of continuing to build friction in the supply chain through tariffs and adversarial relationships—are numerous, according to Kent and his colleagues. They believe it would be much better if the two major world economies worked together on issues like global inflation, climate change, and artificial intelligence.
And such relations could play a significant role in strengthening world peace, particularly in light of ongoing tensions over Taiwan. Because, as Kent writes, “The 19th-century idea that ‘When goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will’ is as true today as ever. Perhaps more so.”
Global trade will see a moderate rebound in 2025, likely growing by 3.6% in volume terms, helped by companies restocking and households renewing purchases of durable goods while reducing spending on services, according to a forecast from trade credit insurer Allianz Trade.
The end of the year for 2024 will also likely be supported by companies rushing to ship goods in anticipation of the higher tariffs likely to be imposed by the coming Trump administration, and other potential disruptions in the coming quarters, the report said.
However, that tailwind for global trade will likely shift to a headwind once the effects of a renewed but contained trade war are felt from the second half of 2025 and in full in 2026. As a result, Allianz Trade has throttled back its predictions, saying that global trade in volume will grow by 2.8% in 2025 (reduced by 0.2 percentage points vs. its previous forecast) and 2.3% in 2026 (reduced by 0.5 percentage points).
The same logic applies to Allianz Trade’s forecast for export prices in U.S. dollars, which the firm has now revised downward to predict growth reaching 2.3% in 2025 (reduced by 1.7 percentage points) and 4.1% in 2026 (reduced by 0.8 percentage points).
In the meantime, the rush to frontload imports into the U.S. is giving freight carriers an early Christmas present. According to Allianz Trade, data released last week showed Chinese exports rising by a robust 6.7% y/y in November. And imports of some consumer goods that have been threatened with a likely 25% tariff under the new Trump administration have outperformed even more, growing by nearly 20% y/y on average between July and September.
Declaring that it is furthering its mission to advance supply chain excellence across the globe, the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) today announced the launch of seven new International Roundtables.
The new groups have been established in Mexico City, Monterrey, Guadalajara, Toronto, Panama City, Lisbon, and Sao Paulo. They join CSCMP’s 40 existing roundtables across the U.S. and worldwide, with each one offering a way for members to grow their knowledge and practice professional networking within their state or region. Overall, CSCMP roundtables produce over 200 events per year—such as educational events, networking events, or facility tours—attracting over 6,000 attendees from 3,000 companies worldwide, the group says.
“The launch of these seven Roundtables is a testament to CSCMP’s commitment to advancing supply chain innovation and fostering professional growth globally,” Mark Baxa, President and CEO of CSCMP, said in a release. “By extending our reach into Latin America, Canada and enhancing our European Union presence, and beyond, we’re not just growing our community—we’re strengthening the global supply chain network. This is how we equip the next generation of leaders and continue shaping the future of our industry.”
The new roundtables in Mexico City and Monterrey will be inaugurated in early 2025, following the launch of the Guadalajara Roundtable in 2024, said Javier Zarazua, a leader in CSCMP’s Latin America initiatives.
“As part of our growth strategy, we have signed strategic agreements with The Logistics World, the largest logistics publishing company in Latin America; Tec Monterrey, one of the largest universities in Latin America; and Conalog, the association for Logistics Executives in Mexico,” Zarazua said. “Not only will supply chain and logistics professionals benefit from these strategic agreements, but CSCMP, with our wealth of content, research, and network, will contribute to enhancing the industry not only in Mexico but across Latin America.”
Likewse, the Lisbon Roundtable marks the first such group in Portugal and the 10th in Europe, noted Miguel Serracanta, a CSCMP global ambassador from that nation.
North American manufacturers have begun stockpiling goods to buffer against the impact of potential tariffs threatened by incoming Trump Administration, building up safety stocks to guard against higher imported costs, according to a report from New Jersey business software firm GEP.
That surge in orders has sparked a jump in production, shrinking the level of spare capacity in global supply chains to its lowest level since June, the firm said in its “GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index.” By the numbers, that index rose to -0.20 in November, from -0.39 the month before, based on GEP’s measurement of demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs from its monthly survey of 27,000 businesses.
Another impact of the trend has been to trigger a surge in procurement activity by manufacturers in Asia—especially China—as new orders rebounded sharply. Only India reported a greater rise in raw material purchases than China in November. And preparations to ramp up production even further were evidenced data showing factory procurement activity across Asia rising at its fastest pace for three-and-a-half years, GEP said.
In sharp contrast, Europe's industrial recession worsened in November, in large part due to Germany's deepening manufacturing downturn. Factories in that region went deeper into retrenchment mode, as demand for inputs from manufacturers in Europe was its weakest since December 2023.
"In November, U.S. manufacturers, particularly in the consumer goods sector, increased their safety stocks to help blunt any immediate tariff increases," John Piatek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "In contrast, Chinese manufacturers are getting busier as a result of government stimulus and growth in exports, led by automotives and technology products. Strategically, many global companies have a wait-and-hope approach, while simultaneously planning to remake their global supply chains to respond to a tariff and trade war in 2025 and beyond."
As another potential strike looms at East and Gulf coast ports, nervous retailers are calling on dockworkers union the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) to reach an agreement with port management group the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) before their current labor contract expires on January 15.
The latest call for a quick solution came from the American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA), which cheered President-elect Donald Trump for his published comments yesterday indicating that he supports the 45,000 dockworkers’ opposition to increased automation for handling shipping containers.
In response, AAFA’s president and CEO, Steve Lamar, issued a statement urging both sides to avoid the major disruption to the American economy that could be caused by a protracted strike. "We urge the ILA to formally return to the negotiating table to finalize a contract with USMX that builds on the well-deserved tentative agreement of a 61.5 percent salary increase. Like our messages to President Biden, we urge President-elect Trump to continue his work to strengthen U.S. docks — by meeting with USMX and continuing work with the ILA — to secure a deal before the January 15 deadline with resolution on the issue of automation,” Lamar said.
While the East and Gulf ports are currently seeing a normal December calm post retail peak and prior to the Lunar New Year, the U.S. West Coast ports are still experiencing significant import volumes, the ITS report said. That high volume may be the result of inventory being pulled forward due to market apprehension about potential tariffs that could come with the beginning of the Trump administration, as well as retailers already compensating for the potential port strike.
“The volumes coming from Asia on the trans-Pacific trade routes are not overwhelming the supply of capacity as spot rates at origin are not being pushed higher,” Paul Brashier, Vice President of Global Supply Chain for ITS Logistics, said in a release. “For the time being, everything seems balanced. That said, if the US West Coast continues to be a release valve for a potential ILA strike supply chain disruption, there is a high risk that both West Coast Port and Rail operations could become overwhelmed.”
We are now into the home stretch of the holiday shopping season—the biggest retail bonanza of the year. By now, many shoppers have already made their purchases and are putting the final touches on their gifts. Some of us procrastinators have not even started. Isn’t that why online shopping was invented?
Here are some interesting facts about Americans’ holiday shopping patterns. The National Retail Federation estimates that consumer spending for the holidays will average $902 per person. Some $641 of that will be for gifts, with the remainder spent on food, decorations, and other holiday items.
Many of those purchases will be online, where more than 21% of all consumer transactions now occur. A recent report from DHL eCommerce reveals that 61% of U.S. shoppers buy online at least once a week, and 84% browse online one or more times a week.
We also buy a range of goods that way—63% buy clothing and footwear through e-commerce sites, according to the DHL report. Next most popular were consumer electronics at 33%, followed by health supplements at 30%.
That first category is interesting, because apparel and footwear are also among the most widely returned items, especially when bought as gifts. Either they don’t fit properly, or they aren’t quite what the recipients had in mind—which means that each January, retailers must cope with a flood of returns.
Of course, returns are not a seasonal phenomenon; consumers return goods—particularly those bought online—year round. Between 25% and 35% of all goods purchased via e-commerce are returned, depending on whose figures you believe. By comparison, only 8% to 9% of products bought in stores, where we can see the actual items and try on clothing and shoes, end up being returned.
Try-ons are not possible with apparel sold online, which leads to the common practice of “bracketing,” where customers order an item in multiple sizes, pick the one that fits best, and send back the rest. The seller typically absorbs the reverse logistics costs—and those costs can be significant. The retail value of returned consumer items totals around $745 billion each year. According to Narvar, a company that helps retailers manage the post-purchase customer experience, more than 90% of returned products have nothing wrong with them. They simply weren’t wanted or needed.
So as you make those final holiday selections, help your fellow supply chain professionals. Choose your gifts wisely to reduce the chances they’ll be returned. And remember, gift cards are always nice.