Lift Truck Roundtable: An inside look at a volatile market

Roundtable participants:

MARTIN BOYD, CMO, Big Joe Forklifts

SHANNON CURTIS, Senior Manager, Technology Solutions & Marketing, The Raymond Corporation

LOREN SWAKOW, Managing Director, Noblelift North America

Q: HOW DO YOU VIEW THE CURRENT LIFT TRUCK MARKET?

Shannon Curtis – Raymond: Consumers are clamoring for innovation in the food supply chain sphere in 2025. From a greater emphasis on convenience to a renewed desire for operational efficiency and security, new preferences call for a shift from tried-and-true procedures to innovative business models that champion modernization—the adoption of which can help organizations stand out as technological and cultural leaders in the new year and beyond.

Loren Swakow – Noblelift: I think it is still a strong and viable market—[there are] always new opportunities. When the new additional tariffs come in, we shall see how that affects the total market. I think the demand for used equipment will go up. Users will have X amount of dollars to invest in equipment, and if the Chinese, Canadian, and/or Mexican product [costs] gets pushed higher, the user does not necessarily have more money available. I am not sure sales of American-made lift trucks will increase.

Martin Boyd – Big Joe: It’s safe to say the industrial lift truck market has been somewhat volatile the last five years, with the market reaching all-time highs during the pandemic years, [then experiencing] massive swings downward these past two. While most lift truck OEMs enjoyed the spike in sales, the enormous demand put a significant strain on the supply chain, pushing leadtimes out to unprecedented levels while simultaneously driving up costs. The significant market decline is something no CEO in this industry would boast about. The fall we are experiencing today is better viewed as a normalization or correction to a market that was way overinflated.

With all the pent-up demand from the excessive orders due to the elongated pandemic leadtimes, we are now experiencing an abundance of stock on hand at both the OEM and distribution levels. On the surface, a market that’s quickly becoming half of what it was two years ago looks catastrophic. However, when you compare it to what’s happened over the past 15 years, today’s market still looks relatively healthy.

Q: WILL 2025 AND THE HOPES OF LOWER INTEREST RATES SPUR INVESTMENTS IN NEW INDUSTRIAL TRUCKS?

Loren Swakow – Noblelift: It will not hurt, but I do not think interest rates hinder sales. One point [in the interest rate] in either direction has a small impact on the payment. A rate reduction can be used as a marketing tool, though. If rates decline, dealers can go back over their outstanding quotes, refigure the payments, and present a new monthly cost to the user.

Martin Boyd – Big Joe: There are many factors, including interest rates, that play a role in the level of investment in industrial truck fleets. Most significant of those factors is consumer confidence. Logically, when consumers are confident, they buy more, which means manufacturers will have to make more and lift trucks will have to move more.

While inflation and high interest rates have surely stifled consumer confidence these past four years, there are signs that a new, more business-friendly administration will work in conjunction with lower interest rates to help drive up consumer confidence. Lower interest rates will work hand in hand with that resurgence in consumer confidence to help drive more investment in industrial equipment.

Q: WILL THE NEW ADMINISTRATION’S PROPOSED TARIFFS HURT OR HELP YOUR BRANDS?

Martin Boyd – Big Joe: The industrial lift truck market is one that is very global in nature, with a complex supply chain and operations scattered throughout the world. The tariffs that are being proposed on countries like Canada, Mexico, and China will undoubtedly have an impact on the industrial market, depending on the manufacturer. All lift truck manufacturers will experience varying levels of impact due to the tariffs, but tariffs are designed to incentivize companies to re-evaluate their supply chains and bring more manufacturing capacity back to the United States, which is a good thing.

Loren Swakow – Noblelift: As we represent a Chinese manufacturer, the tariff increase will have an effect. We are currently paying 25%. An additional 10% (as of the last reports) is manageable. It is a world economy. Adding the tariff just adds cost to the product here in the U.S. China does not pay it; the dealers do. We have no choice but to pass on this added cost. To reduce the costs of tariffs, manufacturers will move production to a country that does not have a tariff. Even though labor costs will be higher, it will not add more than the proposed tariff to the cost of the machine.

The factory will look for new countries to manufacture in as well. If tariffs had come in at 60% per campaign promises, it would have been disastrous. We probably would have moved manufacturing to Vietnam or another Asian country immediately.

Q: THE MARKET HAS BEEN MOVING TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN RECENT YEARS. DO YOU THINK THIS WILL CONTINUE, OR WILL THE ADVENT OF A MORE FOSSIL FUEL-FRIENDLY ADMINISTRATION DRIVE MORE DEMAND FOR INTERNAL COMBUSTION (IC) TRUCKS?

Loren Swakow – Noblelift: The states have a bigger say in this than the federal government. Look at California as an example. With the advent of lithium as a safe and effective power solution, and with the price of lithium batteries coming down, I think [the use of] electric vehicles will continue to expand. Total cost of ownership is already much lower on electric when compared to IC product.

We continue to see electric product increasing every year. It is more sustainable, and it has now reached a point where cost is not a barrier to entry. Power and force have been overcome; we produce an electric rough-terrain lift truck that has a 50-degree gradeability.

Users will look at their own requirements, costs, etc., before deciding on IC or electric. I do not think the new administration will be able to justify the additional cost needed to use IC products. Electric is the future of material handling.

Martin Boyd – Big Joe: As anyone involved with the industrial lift truck market knows, California has been the driving force behind the electrification of the market, forcing organizations that operate in that state away from lift trucks that run on fossil fuels. While there have been no changes in the stringent regulations being imposed by the California Zero Emission Forklift Initiative, which essentially prohibits the sale of most spark-ignited internal combustion forklifts starting in 2026, there are many that expect an easing of such regulations.

Yet, aside from the legislative pressures, there continues to be a strong value proposition for making the switch to electric. Technological advancements in lift truck systems, battery technology, and charging platforms have all combined to make moving to electric more feasible than ever before; we are one of the only westernized nations who still use combustion engine equipment indoors. This is a welcome change for both warehouse employees and the environment.

Shannon Curtis – Raymond: The industry is embracing alternative fuel and energy sources. One viable option is lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) with certification from Underwriters Laboratories. While lithium-ion technology is already a proven solution in the industry, offering superior performance and longer life spans than traditional lead-acid batteries, The Raymond Corporation sees UL-compliant LIBs playing a pivotal role in meeting new regulatory standards. These batteries not only help reduce emissions but also improve the operational efficiency of the material handling, manufacturing, and warehousing industries.

Q: LIFT TRUCKS ARE USED FOR MANY TASKS, BUT ARE THERE ANY APPLICATIONS THAT ARE OF PARTICULAR INTEREST TO CUSTOMERS?

Shannon Curtis – Raymond: Today, organizations are aiming innovations in lift truck technologies to increase uptime, improve speed and mobility, streamline diagnostic procedures, and lower operating and energy costs—dramatically cutting consumption without reducing productivity. And it’s not just the forklift technologies that are evolving. The systems that warehouse managers rely on to manage and maintain their trucks—including operator-assist and data collection technologies—are also growing increasingly advanced.

Loren Swakow – Noblelift: E-commerce has fueled growth in the last few years. I believe it is here to stay. If anything, it will expand. All these products come from warehouses that need material handling machines. Every product we touch, including food, is probably moved at one point by a lift truck. We need to move products from one location to another, and trucks must be loaded and then unloaded at their destination. Lift trucks perform this function.

We are seeing continued expansion of Class III product [electric hand trucks and hand/rider trucks]. Walkie products move material but cannot stack it. Companies are realizing most of their need is for movement. For example, [a company may] have always used three lift trucks [that can both move and stack product] in its warehouse, when it only needs to have one truck [that’s capable of both moving and stacking product] along with two trucks [that just] move material, which includes loading and unloading at the dock.

Martin Boyd – Big Joe: Labor constraints today have been a significant challenge for operations that require the use of lift trucks. With the massive movement to e-commerce, there is a much higher need for lift truck operators in warehousing and distribution environments. The lack of skilled labor has really pressured companies to invest in technologies that help operations accomplish more with less. As a result, more and more operations are looking to [incorporate] various levels of automation into their industrial lift truck fleets.

Q: DO YOU SEE ROBOTICS SOLUTIONS AS COMPETITIVE WITH FORKLIFTS OR COMPLEMENTARY TO THEM?

Martin Boyd – Big Joe: For many years, the industrial lift truck manufacturers viewed automation and AGV [automatic guided vehicle] companies as competitors, but we’ve experienced a significant change in thinking over the past decade. What was a threat has now become a strength for the lift truck manufacturers. Almost all lift truck manufacturers today have expanded their technology capabilities to such a level that they are now able to offer automated versions of their standard equipment with improved ROI [return on investment] calculations.

Loren Swakow – Noblelift: They are complementary. Most AGV solutions are based on a forklift of some type. We will just be building different types of forklifts. The goal of robotics is to take out the labor cost of the driver. The operator is by far the most expensive component of material handling.

Support of your AGV will determine the success of the project. Dealer networks will be the key here. There are more and more companies getting into the AGV market, but can they support it after the sale?

Repetitive moves or long distances are the easiest [places] to remove the driver from the equation. If the unit goes down because of programming or mechanics, you must be able to get it back up operating as soon as possible. Dealer network and aftersales support should be a major component of the decision to take advantage of the benefits of AGV material handling.

Shannon Curtis – Raymond: Robots have been used in warehouses for decades, but in recent years, “cobots” have become even more complementary in the warehouse and instrumental in providing great levels of efficiency. From improved security and increased productivity to increased accuracy and lower costs, cobots are becoming an increasingly important part of warehouse operations.

Q: TODAY’S INDUSTRIAL TRUCKS OFFER MORE SAFETY FEATURES THAN EVER BEFORE. WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SAFETY DEVELOPMENTS OF THE PAST FIVE YEARS?

Shannon Curtis – Raymond: One of the most significant advancements in warehouse operations involves the implementation of virtual reality (VR) simulators. The technology can help new forklift operators develop the skills they need to succeed on the warehouse floor without impacting day-to-day operations, while also serving as a reinforcement tool for experienced operators. VR simulators serve as flexible, scalable teaching tools that rely on advanced technology to help workforces become more efficient and expand operator skills, creating optimized conditions for all employees.

In addition, training reinforcement offerings—like integrated equipment detection and notification systems and operator tether systems—can similarly help warehouse operators improve their work environment. Systems like these use intelligent speed limitations, real-time object detection, operator notifications, and more to improve employee awareness of their environment even in high-traffic areas.

Martin Boyd – Big Joe: With advancements in technology, all lift truck manufacturers are playing their part in developing new technologies that allow for the safe operation of their equipment. While there are various means in which manufacturers have applied these technologies, there is no substitute for a sound operator safety training program. [Ensuring that your operators receive the proper training] will always be the number-one way to reduce the likelihood of workplace incidents involving lift trucks. In addition to having fully trained operators, many manufacturers offer optional operator-assistance systems that may improve workplace safety for both the operator and those working around lift trucks.

Loren Swakow – Noblelift: When I started in this business, we were selling used trucks without overhead guards. They were produced without them. The load backrest was not a given. Seat belts were nonexistent.

There have been so many great advancements in safety, it is hard to pick just one. We are incorporating AI [artificial intelligence] into our equipment now. This will recognize a person in the area and warn the driver. Besides changing the physical attributes of the lift truck to make it safer for the operator, we will see more and more technology and AI in the pursuit of making it safer for the pedestrian.

Q: WHAT ARE THE ADVANTAGES OF LEASING VERSUS BUYING FOR COMPANIES LOOKING TO ACQUIRE NEW TRUCKS?

Loren Swakow – Noblelift: This is an age-old question. It really depends on the user. It is a function of cash flow and cash balances in each company. Leases can be expensed, while purchases need to be capitalized. Not only are we looking at the cash position, but we also now need to review our profit position. The user needs a lift truck, but does he need to capitalize it because profit is low, or does he need to expense it to decrease his profit and reduce the taxes on the company?

Every company is different, [but either way,] you will have outflow of cash and a new lift truck on the floor producing for you. The question is which method benefits the organization the most.

Shannon Curtis – Raymond: Today’s electric forklifts offer performance that meets the needs of the most common lift truck applications, but with dramatically reduced maintenance requirements and with data collection capabilities that are quickly becoming essential to facility and resource optimization. Although the total cost of ownership of electric products is typically lower than for internal combustion products, the higher upfront initial purchase cost of switching to electric-powered equipment may have been a barrier in the past. Currently available governmental incentives and supplier programs, like leasing, make battery power—specifically, the traditionally more expensive lithium-ion power—even easier to justify.

Martin Boyd – Big Joe: When it comes to the lease vs. buy decision, each organization needs to evaluate several factors when considering what’s right for their application and company.

In leasing, you enjoy a lower cost per month and can be flexible on the terms of the lease. If you have a high-use environment, where you may need to renew equipment more often, leasing clearly has its advantages. In addition, a lease is often treated as an operating expense on the income statement, while a financed forklift is considered an asset on the balance sheet with depreciation expense recorded each period.