One of the biggest consumer spending surges outside of the winter holiday peak is revving up as students prepare to go back to school, but its economic impact will be slightly smaller this year than its revenues in 2023, according to a forecast from the consulting firm Deloitte.
Back-to-school season is one of several retail spending spikes that has spread consumer shopping habits more broadly across the calendar than the traditional Christmas wave. Other prominent examples include Amazon’s Prime Day—taking place this week on July 16 and 17—and similar events in recent weeks from Walmart, JD.com, and Target.
Those events have a major impact on retail and logistics patterns, with the 2024 back-to-school season expected to reach a collective $31.3 billion, Deloitte said. The firm’s survey was conducted online using an independent research panel between May 22 and May 30, and surveyed 1,198 parents with at least one child attending school in grades K-12 this fall.
That total divides to approximately $586 per K-12 student, which is down $11 year-over-year compared to 2023, although it remains $57 higher than 2020.
Another change in 2024 is that families have started shopping earlier in July, as they look for savings to enable their spending on indulgences and extracurricular activities. In fact, spending on clothing and school supplies will remain unchanged, as surveyed parents plan to decrease their spending on technology products by 11% year-over-year while increasing spend on other categories like personal hygiene and educational furniture by 22%.
To find the best deals, those surveyed shoppers said they will prioritize retailers offering value and convenience, making mass merchants (77%) and online retailers (65%) top destinations. In search of deals, parents plan to shop across 4.7 retail formats on average, up from 3.9 in 2023, and may sacrifice loyalty to stay within budget.
One reason for those shifts is that the cost of school supplies has increased 24.5% over the past four years, Deloitte said, citing the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index). Deloitte's ConsumerSignals research finds that 73% of consumers are concerned about rising prices for everyday purchases, and plan to spend cautiously, focusing on value and convenience to find the best deals.
"We expect back-to-school spending to be flat to down modestly when adjusted for inflation, mainly driven by middle-income families juggling financial priorities and ongoing inflation perceptions,” Stephen Rogers, managing director, Deloitte Insights Consumer Industry Center, Deloitte Services LP, said in a release. “Retailers can expect headwinds to volume and loyalty as consumers seek to save money. However, wanting to please their kids, retailers will likely have opportunities to harness the indulgences parents are willing to make."
