Hurricane season officially kicked off this month, and experts say this year is set to be a doozy. That means logistics and supply chain professionals should prepare for the business disruptions, challenges, and headaches that can accompany the stormy weather.
But logistics pros should be used to all this by now, given the intensifying weather threats around the world. Last year’s above-average Atlantic hurricane season ranked fourth for the most named storms in a year since 1950, according to the U.S. government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). There were 20 named storms in 2023, seven of which were hurricanes—and three of those intensified into major hurricanes. You may recall Hurricane Idalia, the category 4 storm that barreled through Florida last August, disrupting infrastructure across the Southeast. And who could forget Hurricane Ian the year before, which helped push 2022 into the record books as the third-costliest hurricane season on record?
NOAA hadn’t issued its 2024 storm predictions at press time, but other groups were already predicting a higher number of damaging events this year. In April, researchers at the University of Arizona said the 2024 hurricane season has the potential to be even worse than last year’s, predicting 11 hurricanes—five of which could be major hurricanes, meaning category 3, 4, or 5—and 21 named storms over the North Atlantic. The prediction targets the North Atlantic basin, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast.
Meteorologists from Colorado State University have predicted an “extremely active” hurricane season as well, forecasting 23 named storms, five of which could be major hurricanes. They issued their forecast for the Atlantic basin in early April.
For comparison, an average hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA.
Logistics and supply chain professionals are taking note, pushing preparation to the top of their risk management to-do lists. Extreme weather ranked as one of the biggest threats to supply chain operations in several recent surveys and reports, including the “2024 State of Transportation” report from industry tech provider Breakthrough, which offers sustainable fuel and freight solutions for shippers. The 500 shippers and carriers polled for the report said extreme weather events—such as intensifying winter weather across the United States, flooding in California, and fallout from hurricanes—are their number one transportation-related challenge this year, surpassing inflationary pressures and macroeconomic uncertainty, which were their top concerns a year earlier.
Such worries are shining a brighter light on corporate sustainability initiatives, as companies work to reduce their environmental impact: 98% of shippers surveyed by Breakthrough said their organization has set sustainability goals for transportation, and 63% said they plan to achieve specific sustainability certifications or goals, for example.
Another report, from risk assessment firm Moody’s, includes “natural disasters and climate risk” among the top 10 challenges facing global supply chains. Extreme weather ranks ninth on the list, which was published last October. In addition to the threat of business interruption, property damage is another key risk facing supply chains as volatile weather conditions intensify, according to the report. And as with the Breakthrough analysis, Moody’s researchers emphasize the opportunity for companies to meet sustainability targets as these issues move front and center: As concerns about the weather heat up, it only makes sense that businesses focus on becoming better stewards of the environment. What’s more, the report notes that companies can use climate data to develop risk mitigation strategies, which might include analyzing how business partners’ activities and facility locations expose your company to risk.
Some weather officials will be updating their predictions this month, but only time will tell just how turbulent this year’s hurricane season—which runs through Nov. 30—will be. Here’s hoping that the weather-related disruptions of the past few years have toughened us up for what may lie ahead.
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