Prepare, prevent, and protect: interview with Greg Vecchi
It’s the scenario no one wants to think about: an active shooter on the premises. But statistics show that businesses are the second most common site for such attacks to occur. Former FBI special agent Greg Vecchi shares how to mitigate the risk of a workplace shooting and what to do if the unthinkable happens.
David Maloney has been a journalist for more than 35 years and is currently the group editorial director for DC Velocity and Supply Chain Quarterly magazines. In this role, he is responsible for the editorial content of both brands of Agile Business Media. Dave joined DC Velocity in April of 2004. Prior to that, he was a senior editor for Modern Materials Handling magazine. Dave also has extensive experience as a broadcast journalist. Before writing for supply chain publications, he was a journalist, television producer and director in Pittsburgh. Dave combines a background of reporting on logistics with his video production experience to bring new opportunities to DC Velocity readers, including web videos highlighting top distribution and logistics facilities, webcasts and other cross-media projects. He continues to live and work in the Pittsburgh area.
Hardly a week goes by when we don’t hear about a mass shooting somewhere in America. And while businesses are statistically among the most common sites for shootings to occur, most companies don’t have the security protocols in place to prevent a motivated person from entering a facility and committing violent acts. They simply assume it could never happen to them.
But when it comes to dealing with attacks, prevention and preparation are a better bet than denial. That’s where Gregory Vecchi comes in. As director of training at the crisis management firm SafeDefend LLC, he develops and deploys training programs for threat assessment, prevention, and response, with the end goal of helping businesses thwart attackers or at least mitigate the harm they can do.
Vecchi, who holds a Ph.D. in conflict analysis and resolution from Nova Southeastern University in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, is a retired supervisory special agent and former chief of the FBI Behavioral Science Unit. During his career, he investigated Russian organized crime, international drug trafficking, international and domestic terrorism, and violent crime, and gained extensive experience assessing and interacting with violent offenders.
Vecchi also has a great deal of experience in teaching and training. He is currently a professor of criminal justice, criminology, and homeland security at Keiser University in Fort Lauderdale, where he develops and teaches courses at the master’s and doctoral levels. In addition, he conducts advanced law enforcement training in threat assessment, crisis negotiation, firearms, and defensive tactics and has served as an instructor at the FBI National Academy in Quantico, Virginia.
Vecchi spoke recently to DC Velocity Group Editorial Director David Maloney about workplace violence, including steps businesses can take to mitigate the risk and what to do in the case of an attack.
Q: We hear of mass shootings nearly every day in the news. Are these incidents actually on the rise or are they simply receiving more media attention than in years past?
A: I think it’s a combination of both, actually, and it is important to understand how these incidents happen. What we learned in the FBI is that every offender is a little bit different, and you have to understand the offender in order to best prepare yourself to deal with that offender. You’re trying to prevent violence, or you’re trying to respond to a very specific type of violence. It’s essentially a predator who is targeting other people or institutions in retaliation for a perceived wrong.
Q: DC Velocity focuses on warehousing, distribution, and manufacturing operations. Can you point to any incidents in these types of facilities?
A: There have been a number in your area of commerce. In fact, businesses are the second most probable location where one of these attacks is going to happen. Open spaces are number one, and schools are number three.
These attacks are obviously the worst type of violence. It’s workplace homicide, and it has increased 11% since 2014. In 2008, there was a plastics factory killing that took place in Kentucky. One of the plant’s current employees had a disagreement with a supervisor over wearing safety glasses and using a phone while on the job. He came in to work and killed the supervisor. Then he turned around and shot a coworker with whom he’d had a previous dispute in the back of the head. I think in total there were about nine or 10 people killed in that manufacturing plant. So yes, it happens.
Q: What motivates these folks to walk into a facility and begin shooting? Is it related to personal disputes between people? Is it a gripe that a worker has against the company? Or is it just spilling over from other kinds of violence, and it just happens to end at the facility?
A: It’s all of the above, but you’re dealing with a specific type of predator—someone who is preying on other people. There are three general types of predators that come to mind. The first is the process predator. This is the serial-killer-type person, the one who likes to kill people and enjoys violence. More than likely, that’s not going to be your guy in these facilities. The second is the resource predator, such as a bank robber who’s looking to take something that’s valuable. That’s also typically not what you deal with in these facilities.
Mostly, what you’re going to deal with in your context is what I like to call the grievance predator. This is someone who feels they were wronged by a person or maybe by the business itself. It’s someone who feels persecuted, isolated, or bullied—perhaps because of a difference in ideology. And almost always, there’s some significant loss in their life.
Q: Are there warning signs employers should look for?
A: Yes, there are specific warning behaviors. And actually, this is really the centerpiece of a prevention program in this regard. You know, there’s the bumper sticker slogan—“See something, say something”—and it really does point to what you need to do. One thing you have to realize is that these attacks don’t just happen on the spot. There’s no “snap effect.” If you look at the case after the attack, you’ll find that almost always, the person has a grievance that reaches a crisis stage, where they’re no longer able to cope with the situation.
You’ll probably see that they’ve tried to remedy the situation, and that it wasn’t remedied, and that the crisis escalated to the point where they saw violence as the only answer. It typically results in homicidal violence against the person they feel has wronged them, or maybe even the whole organization itself. So, everyone could be a target.
Q: What happens once they determine in their mind that violence is the only way to resolve the issue?
A: They then move on to researching and formulating a plan. They collect maps, they figure out the best time and place to target the person or persons who wronged them. And then they select their weapons. They might create hit lists. And finally, they actually get the gun or the knife or the ammo. They may also do feasibility checks or dry runs before actually launching the attack.
There’s essentially something like 10 steps in there, of which eight take place before the attack. Understand that these types of offenders are almost always current or former employees—someone you know, oftentimes someone you liked very much—but they are people who are in crisis. When someone reaches a crisis state, their behavior changes. Their normal behavior—the behavior that you see every single day—is going to change, and you will see anomalies or things that don’t quite fit.
Q: From what you just said, it seems that most of these attacks are planned with a lot of forethought, as opposed to somebody who just grabs a gun out of the car and comes in and starts shooting. It seems to be rather deliberate?
A: It is absolutely deliberate. Almost every single time, they prepare and they consider their plan. And they really do try to fix the problem for themselves first. In 2018, there was an incident at the Capital Gazette newspaper in Maryland. The guy’s grievance was that they had published something that made him look bad.
The story he objected to had been published around 2012. He initially tried to address the situation by writing letters to the editor, calling the writer, calling the police, trying to sue the paper for defamation, and all this stuff. It was six years before he finally decided he couldn’t take it anymore. And then he planned and carefully executed his attack on the newsroom, which resulted in five deaths.
Q: Are there basic preventive measures we can take to better secure our facilities?
A: There’s a lot you can do. First and foremost is to establish a threat assessment team. These are people at the HR level—or it could be at a supervisory level—who have special training to identify someone who might be on that pathway to violence and intervene. They understand how to make sense of these warning behaviors to hopefully get in front of it before anything happens.
Another thing you can do is to conduct a vulnerability and risk assessment, which entails looking at which buildings are vulnerable, and what are the most likely days and times for an attack to occur. And then, of course, there are mitigation and physical security measures, such as door locks, visitor controls, and things like that.
Q: What should employees do if there’s an active shooter on the premises?
A: Of course, we can’t prevent all incidents. And so, when it does happen, you should have a system in place to notify authorities and other workers. You should also train your employees on how to evade and escape the offender, as well as how to engage the offender.
Notification is important, but not more important than safety. Obviously, you want to try to call 911 and try to get help. The problem there is that the notification is almost too late, because the attack is already underway. Maybe you hear gunfire or people screaming. If that happens, the most important thing to do is to look after your own safety and the safety of others. The way we break it down is run, hide, and fight.
Q: Can you describe those actions in more detail?
A: Yes. So, the way I look at it is to have a Plan A, Plan B, and Plan C. Plan A is “escape.” You want to move yourself away from the offender. First and foremost, you have to know your workplace. You have to know where the escape routes and alternate exits are. Then before you try to escape, you have to look around to make sure the way is clear and that you’re not walking or running into danger. If you’re going to leave, leave everything behind, have nothing in your hands, put your cell phone and keys in your pocket, and leave as quickly and as quietly as possible.
Statistically, if you can keep at least eight feet of distance between you and the attacker and move in a zigzag pattern, rather than running away from the attacker in a straight line, your chances of survival go way up. And, of course, once you get outside, you want to keep moving until you find a safe location. It’s not like a fire drill where you go out in the parking lot and gather in a group, because there could be a second offender out there.
If you’re moving out, make sure that you don’t stop to help wounded people. If you stop to help someone, it could result in injury or death to you and that wounded person or anyone else you’re trying to help.
Q: What if you’re not able to escape. What are the options then?
A: If you can’t escape, then you go to Plan B, and that’s evasion, barricading, and lockdown. The most important thing here is to have a door that locks from the inside. We have found no reported cases of an active shooter hurting or killing someone who successfully locked themself inside a room and moved away from the door.
Next, you want to move heavy things in front of the door as an additional barricade and also as cover in the event he starts shooting, since there is no guarantee that the bullets won’t go through the door or through a window. You want to cover the windows, move off to the safest area away from the door, which really depends on the location. You should turn off the lights and silence your phones.
And remember the difference between cover and concealment. Cover is protection from gunfire, and concealment is protection from observation.
Q: And if you can’t escape or hide, what do you do then?
A: If Plan B doesn’t work, you have Plan C, and that’s the last-ditch effort, where you have to fight and engage the attacker. We would never expect an employee to go after an attacker. That’s not their job. But let’s say you were barricaded and the door didn’t lock or the attacker got through the door and started to enter the room. We’re talking about protecting the threshold of the door—or the window, if they’re trying to enter that way. You want to stay as far away as possible, but be prepared to engage. And that’s when you would employ your protection tools.
Ideally, you want to have things like pepper spray and a baton, and maybe a strobe flashlight to blind him. But really anything could work—coffee cups, fire extinguishers, heavy tools, or blunt objects. You essentially need to have a plan. If there are five people in the room, everyone should be assigned a job before the attacker enters. Someone’s going to take the hand with the gun, another takes the head, someone takes the other hand, and someone takes the groin. The idea is that if any body part or weapon crosses that threshold, you do everything you can to stop it and you don’t stop until that threat has ended.
Q: How does your company, SafeDefend, help companies prepare for what they hope will never happen?
A: SafeDefend has a singular focus on notifying and protecting people, both in schools and in workplaces. We prepare them with the protection necessary to deal with an active shooter—an active killer situation. SafeDefend is like a fire alarm system for active shooters. And like a fire alarm, it’s hardwired with biometric readers and is solely focused on that type of an attack.
When a threat occurs, an authorized person in the system places a finger on the biometric reader. It automatically notifies 911 within seconds and also provides notification through email and text to everyone in the building—all employees, contractors, custodians, administrators, whoever you want to be notified. It tells everybody in the building not only who set off the alarm, but also where the alarm is located, such as the room number, the floor number, and the nearest exit, which provides police with a starting point when they arrive.
Since I came to SafeDefend, I’ve been building not just a better response piece, but also bringing in my threat assessment experience on how to identify potential offenders before they get violent, based on behavior. And that’s the kind of the end-to-end piece that I bring to SafeDefend and that I’m most proud of.
Artificial intelligence (AI) and data science were hot business topics in 2024 and will remain on the front burner in 2025, according to recent research published in AI in Action, a series of technology-focused columns in the MIT Sloan Management Review.
In Five Trends in AI and Data Science for 2025, researchers Tom Davenport and Randy Bean outline ways in which AI and our data-driven culture will continue to shape the business landscape in the coming year. The information comes from a range of recent AI-focused research projects, including the 2025 AI & Data Leadership Executive Benchmark Survey, an annual survey of data, analytics, and AI executives conducted by Bean’s educational firm, Data & AI Leadership Exchange.
The five trends range from the promise of agentic AI to the struggle over which C-suite role should oversee data and AI responsibilities. At a glance, they reveal that:
Leaders will grapple with both the promise and hype around agentic AI. Agentic AI—which handles tasks independently—is on the rise, in the form of generative AI bots that can perform some content-creation tasks. But the authors say it will be a while before such tools can handle major tasks—like make a travel reservation or conduct a banking transaction.
The time has come to measure results from generative AI experiments. The authors say very few companies are carefully measuring productivity gains from AI projects—particularly when it comes to figuring out what their knowledge-based workers are doing with the freed-up time those projects provide. Doing so is vital to profiting from AI investments.
The reality about data-driven culture sets in. The authors found that 92% of survey respondents feel that cultural and change management challenges are the primary barriers to becoming data- and AI-driven—indicating that the shift to AI is about much more than just the technology.
Unstructured data is important again. The ability to apply Generative AI tools to manage unstructured data—such as text, images, and video—is putting a renewed focus on getting all that data into shape, which takes a whole lot of human effort. As the authors explain “organizations need to pick the best examples of each document type, tag or graph the content, and get it loaded into the system.” And many companies simply aren’t there yet.
Who should run data and AI? Expect continued struggle. Should these roles be concentrated on the business or tech side of the organization? Opinions differ, and as the roles themselves continue to evolve, the authors say companies should expect to continue to wrestle with responsibilities and reporting structures.
Shippers today are praising an 11th-hour contract agreement that has averted the threat of a strike by dockworkers at East and Gulf coast ports that could have frozen container imports and exports as soon as January 16.
The agreement came late last night between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) representing some 45,000 workers and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) that includes the operators of port facilities up and down the coast.
Details of the new agreement on those issues have not yet been made public, but in the meantime, retailers and manufacturers are heaving sighs of relief that trade flows will continue.
“Providing certainty with a new contract and avoiding further disruptions is paramount to ensure retail goods arrive in a timely manner for consumers. The agreement will also pave the way for much-needed modernization efforts, which are essential for future growth at these ports and the overall resiliency of our nation’s supply chain,” Gold said.
The next step in the process is for both sides to ratify the tentative agreement, so negotiators have agreed to keep those details private in the meantime, according to identical statements released by the ILA and the USMX. In their joint statement, the groups called the six-year deal a “win-win,” saying: “This agreement protects current ILA jobs and establishes a framework for implementing technologies that will create more jobs while modernizing East and Gulf coasts ports – making them safer and more efficient, and creating the capacity they need to keep our supply chains strong. This is a win-win agreement that creates ILA jobs, supports American consumers and businesses, and keeps the American economy the key hub of the global marketplace.”
The breakthrough hints at broader supply chain trends, which will focus on the tension between operational efficiency and workforce job protection, not just at ports but across other sectors as well, according to a statement from Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, a freight booking and payment platform. Port automation was the major sticking point leading up to this agreement, as the USMX pushed for technologies to make ports more efficient, while the ILA opposed automation or semi-automation that could threaten jobs.
"This is a six-year détente in the tech-versus-labor tug-of-war at U.S. ports," Levine said. “Automation remains a lightning rod—and likely one we’ll see in other industries—but this deal suggests a cautious path forward."
Editor's note: This story was revised on January 9 to include additional input from the ILA, USMX, and Freightos.
Logistics industry growth slowed in December due to a seasonal wind-down of inventory and following one of the busiest holiday shopping seasons on record, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) report, released this week.
The monthly LMI was 57.3 in December, down more than a percentage point from November’s reading of 58.4. Despite the slowdown, economic activity across the industry continued to expand, as an LMI reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The LMI researchers said the monthly conditions were largely due to seasonal drawdowns in inventory levels—and the associated costs of holding them—at the retail level. The LMI’s Inventory Levels index registered 50, falling from 56.1 in November. That reduction also affected warehousing capacity, which slowed but remained in expansion mode: The LMI’s warehousing capacity index fell 7 points to a reading of 61.6.
December’s results reflect a continued trend toward more typical industry growth patterns following recent years of volatility—and they point to a successful peak holiday season as well.
“Retailers were clearly correct in their bet to stock [up] on goods ahead of the holiday season,” the LMI researchers wrote in their monthly report. “Holiday sales from November until Christmas Eve were up 3.8% year-over-year according to Mastercard. This was largely driven by a 6.7% increase in e-commerce sales, although in-person spending was up 2.9% as well.”
And those results came during a compressed peak shopping cycle.
“The increase in spending came despite the shorter holiday season due to the late Thanksgiving,” the researchers also wrote, citing National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates that U.S. shoppers spent just short of a trillion dollars in November and December, making it the busiest holiday season of all time.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
As U.S. small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face an uncertain business landscape in 2025, a substantial majority (67%) expect positive growth in the new year compared to 2024, according to a survey from DHL.
However, the survey also showed that businesses could face a rocky road to reach that goal, as they navigate a complex environment of regulatory/policy shifts and global market volatility. Both those issues were cited as top challenges by 36% of respondents, followed by staffing/talent retention (11%) and digital threats and cyber attacks (2%).
Against that backdrop, SMEs said that the biggest opportunity for growth in 2025 lies in expanding into new markets (40%), followed by economic improvements (31%) and implementing new technologies (14%).
As the U.S. prepares for a broad shift in political leadership in Washington after a contentious election, the SMEs in DHL’s survey were likely split evenly on their opinion about the impact of regulatory and policy changes. A plurality of 40% were on the fence (uncertain, still evaluating), followed by 24% who believe regulatory changes could negatively impact growth, 20% who see these changes as having a positive impact, and 16% predicting no impact on growth at all.
That uncertainty also triggered a split when respondents were asked how they planned to adjust their strategy in 2025 in response to changes in the policy or regulatory landscape. The largest portion (38%) of SMEs said they remained uncertain or still evaluating, followed by 30% who will make minor adjustments, 19% will maintain their current approach, and 13% who were willing to significantly adjust their approach.
The overall national industrial real estate vacancy rate edged higher in the fourth quarter, although it still remains well below pre-pandemic levels, according to an analysis by Cushman & Wakefield.
Vacancy rates shrunk during the pandemic to historically low levels as e-commerce sales—and demand for warehouse space—boomed in response to massive numbers of people working and living from home. That frantic pace is now cooling off but real estate demand remains elevated from a long-term perspective.
“We've witnessed an uptick among firms looking to lease larger buildings to support their omnichannel fulfillment strategies and maintain inventory for their e-commerce, wholesale, and retail stock. This trend is not just about space, but about efficiency and customer satisfaction,” Jason Tolliver, President, Logistics & Industrial Services, said in a release. “Meanwhile, we're also seeing a flurry of activity to support forward-deployed stock models, a strategy that keeps products closer to the market they serve and where customers order them, promising quicker deliveries and happier customers.“
The latest figures show that industrial vacancy is likely nearing its peak for this cooling cycle in the coming quarters, Cushman & Wakefield analysts said.
Compared to the third quarter, the vacancy rate climbed 20 basis points to 6.7%, but that level was still 30 basis points below the 10-year, pre-pandemic average. Likewise, overall net absorption in the fourth quarter—a term for the amount of newly developed property leased by clients—measured 36.8 million square feet, up from the 33.3 million square feet recorded in the third quarter, but down 20% on a year-over-year basis.
In step with those statistics, real estate developers slowed their plans to erect more buildings. New construction deliveries continued to decelerate for the second straight quarter. Just 85.3 million square feet of new industrial product was completed in the fourth quarter, down 8% quarter-over-quarter and 48% versus one year ago.
Likewise, only four geographic markets saw more than 20 million square feet of completions year-to-date, compared to 10 markets in 2023. Meanwhile, as construction starts remained tempered overall, the under-development pipeline has continued to thin out, dropping by 36% annually to its lowest level (290.5 million square feet) since the third quarter of 2018.
Despite the dip in demand last quarter, the market for industrial space remains relatively healthy, Cushman & Wakefield said.
“After a year of hesitancy, logistics is entering a new, sustained growth phase,” Tolliver said. “Corporate capital is being deployed to optimize supply chains, diversify networks, and minimize potential risks. What's particularly encouraging is the proactive approach of retailers, wholesalers, and 3PLs, who are not just reacting to the market, but shaping it. 2025 will be a year characterized by this bias for action.”