Struggles ahead for truckers as market softens, pricing power swings back to shippers
The last two years have invigorated the bottom lines of the nation’s trucking fleets. As inflation powers ahead, consumers switch spending from goods to services, and supply chains remain disrupted, is the trucking profit party about to end?
Gary Frantz is a contributing editor for DC Velocity and its sister publication CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly, and a veteran communications executive with more than 30 years of experience in the transportation and logistics industries. He's served as communications director and strategic media relations counselor for companies including XPO Logistics, Con-way, Menlo Logistics, GT Nexus, Circle International Group, and Consolidated Freightways. Gary is currently principal of GNF Communications LLC, a consultancy providing freelance writing, editorial and media strategy services. He's a proud graduate of the Journalism program at California State University–Chico.
The U.S. economy, whipsawed by high inflation and persistent supply chain disruptions yet still with unemployment in the low single digits, is signaling a shift for truckers. After two full years of strong demand and tight capacity driving higher freight rates, some leading indicators are foreshadowing softer demand and the prospect of muted freight volumes that could swing the pricing pendulum back in favor of shippers—and potentially send some truckers reeling into bankruptcy.
Are the ominous dark clouds of a freight recession just over the horizon, or are we seeing only a passing thunderstorm as the market adjusts and finds its way back to a new form of normal? For the nation’s trucking services, that depends on which part of the freight sandbox you’re playing in.
“We are clearly seeing a [truckload] market normalization in process,” says Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at freight consultancy FTR Transportation Intelligence. “So far it is pretty stable. Earlier this year, we started to see contract players finally get enough capacity to bring down tender rejections and handle a lot more of the volume [under contract rates]. And that’s led to spot rates coming down.”
Vise thinks the market still has “an elevated level of spot-market volume relative to the norm.” He sees that as a shift with some legs, citing the maturation of digital brokerage technology and the proliferation of digital freight platforms that can quickly and accurately find and book available capacity—and keep truckers rolling.
“That allows intermediaries to have access to and manage capacity like an asset-based carrier, so they can compete for contract freight,” he says. “I’m not sure the terms ‘spot’ and ‘contract’ have the same meaning anymore,” he adds.
And while he believes “[truckload] spot rates have a lot more softening to do,” he says he doesn’t see “a lot of [early] relief for shippers on contracts. Not a whole lot of carriers are receptive to [price reductions] at this point, especially since their expenses are through the roof. Freight continues to be very strong even with inflation.”
Nevertheless, Vise sees spot rates through the latter part of this year and into next year experiencing “low double-digit declines.” He expects contract rates to eventually follow next year but “not really what I would call precipitous,” estimating low single-digit declines with 2023 contract bids.
RISING COSTS PUT PRESSURE ON RATES
Yet even as the market appears to soften, some truckload carriers are still rejecting hundreds of loads a week. A case in point is North American truckload operator CFI. “There are pockets out there that are a bit looser than they have been in the past, but overall, we’re not strained for load count,” says Greg Orr, executive vice president of U.S. truckload for TFI and president of CFI, which has 93% of its business under contract. “We are being told by our customers they expect to have a normal third- and fourth-quarter push. No one is telling us anything that says red flags are being thrown up.”
He notes that for CFI, with its heavy emphasis on contract shippers, rates are holding steady, and the carrier is securing increases. “From my perspective, shippers are willing to take some type of modest increase to lock in that committed capacity instead of playing the spot market,” he says.
Orr adds that shippers well recognize that operating costs for truck lines continue to escalate, with little relief in sight. “Not only diesel fuel, but think of all the other petroleum products used in a truck, and costs for maintenance, servicing, tires, and other parts,” he says, noting that some vendors have increased prices three and four times over the past 12 months. Costs for new trucks and trailers continue to climb incrementally year over year.
And the cost inflation doesn’t stop there. “Then there is investing in our employees,” Orr adds. “We increased driver pay to ensure we compete effectively for qualified drivers. And we just rolled out a 10-plus percent increase for our independent contractor program to secure supplemental capacity.”
AS COSTS RISE, A FOCUS ON SERVICE
For the less-than-truckload (LTL) side of the business, the story is similar in some respects, particularly with respect to rising operating costs. “There is nothing in our business that is not inflationary,” noted Fritz Holzgrefe, president and chief executive officer of LTL carrier Saia. Yet the demand picture remains relatively strong in LTL. Some 65% to 70% of Saia’s business is industrial-oriented versus retail. In the second quarter, shipments at Saia were up 1.8%, while tonnage per workday was up 2.2%.
Pricing remains firm as well. Holzgrefe says that contract renewals in the second quarter came with an average 11% increase. “Customers … see many of the same things we do; they respect and understand the inflationary pressures,” he notes. Asking for a rate increase is never easy, but Saia’s focus on quality and service helps temper the discussion, Holzgrefe says. “We recognize that for the customer, it’s hard to absorb a rate increase,” he notes, “but let’s talk about what your claims ratio is and your on-time service. That’s where we excel, and it makes the pricing conversation not quite as challenging.”
He added that Saia continues to invest to build out its network. The carrier already has opened five new terminals this year, added two more in August, and will open another five to seven over the balance of the year.
Looking out at the remainder of the year, Holzgrefe says the focus for Saia is to “continue to take care of the customer and execute our business plan. As we grow, regardless of the economic environment, the customer has to have a great experience.” He believes that as supply chains continue to recover and overcome disruption, “the middle mile will be pretty critical and LTL benefits from that. We’re in a good place.”
TURNING CHALLENGES INTO OPPORTUNITY
It’s a similar story at LTL competitor Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL). “We still characterize demand as strong,” says Adam Satterfield, ODFL’s chief financial officer. And while ODFL’s July’s tonnage was down slightly compared with last year, it likely represented a swing back to traditional seasonal trends where freight volumes tend to soften in July and August before picking up again in September. “[July] was more likely a reflection of what’s going on with the economy and demand for our customers’ products,” Satterfield said. “Feedback we are hearing is all positive with respect to their needs from us.”
As for the rate environment, “it continues to hold steady [and] has been favorable for some time in LTL,” he noted. That’s been crucial in a market where cost inflation is chipping away at margins. “We have to make our best efforts to operate efficiently and keep cost inflation per shipment as low as we can to make sure pricing is somewhat in line with the market,” Satterfield explained.
That also supports ODFL’s aggressive strategy of “expanding capacity in a meaningful way that resonates with our customers,” he said. Over the past 10 years, ODFL has invested some $2 billion to grow its service center network, increasing door capacity just over 50% during that timeframe. Its capex (capital expenditure) budget for 2022 is running at about $835 million, with $300 million allocated for real estate (service centers) and $485 million for equipment, including rolling stock.
Currently, ODFL’s network of 255 service centers has about 15% to 20% excess capacity, Satterfield notes. “Our target is 25%, so we want to continue adding capacity consistently, regardless of what the macro environment looks like.”
Going forward, Satterfield points to the eventual normalization of supply chains—and the opportunities that presents for LTL carriers. “Practically every customer I speak with talks about supply chain challenges they continue to face,” he notes. Parts and components needed to finish products on backlog. Inventories in the wrong place at the wrong time that need to be rebalanced. “That helps us in a way,” he says, noting that even as the economy slows, those challenges become opportunity for LTL carriers. “That’s why more importance is placed on service quality, and there is no other carrier in LTL that offers the level of service we do.”
THE TECH EDGE
Other trucking markets are dealing with different realities. One example is the flatbed market. “Post pandemic, we saw an absolute deluge of freight. It really elevated things for flatbed and was a very robust environment,” recalled Evan Pohaski, founder and CEO of JLE, which operates a 380-truck flatbed fleet in North America.
Flatbed is particularly sensitive to changes in the housing and construction markets. Pohaski saw things begin to shift as spring turned to summer this year. “We’ve got this really squirrely situation where there is the war in Ukraine, interest rates going up, and consumers making the transition from buying goods for the home back into services. That’s taking the wind out of the sails for flatbed,” he says, noting in particular that as interest rates rise, that puts a damper on freight volumes for housing and industrial shippers. All of which is driving a retrenchment in demand.
Yet based on conversations with customers, Pohaski says he’s confident that as the economy moves into the back half of the year, “there will be a floor on rate compression because the structural costs of the business have gone up for everyone.” And while 90% of his business is longer-term contract customers versus “you call/we haul” spot moves, it’s a much faster-paced market where agility and flexibility coupled with accurate, timely capacity and pricing information is key. That’s an area where Pohaski believes JLE has an edge.
Today’s shippers are armed with better technologies, and carriers have to match that in the systems and platforms they use to rate, route, and run the business. It’s where JLE has heavily invested and built its own proprietary tools, Pohaski says. As a result, “we are more confident in engaging with a more fluid and dynamic rating structure. We have contract customers changing rates sometimes on a daily basis. [Our systems] represent the fair market value in any given lane at any given time. That provides our drivers (80% of whom are independent contractors) with that level of timeliness and transparency they need. That’s one of our biggest value propositions.”
DISPATCHES FROM THE DRAY AREA
Another subset of the trucking market is container drayage. Trac Intermodal is the nation’s largest provider of marine chassis, deploying nearly 200,000 chassis at over 600 locations that provide drayage of marine containers to and from ports to intermodal yards, warehouses, and other locations. Trac does not operate the chassis itself; it provides procurement, fleet management, maintenance and servicing, and leasing of chassis to end-users.
Trac will set up a private chassis pool in a dedicated commercial arrangement with an ocean carrier or beneficial cargo owner. It also operates other pools where an independent trucker can pick up a chassis and use it for as little as a day or a week.
The key for chassis pool operators is getting as many “turns” per week or month as possible. A chassis dwelling on the street for a week or more means it can’t be returned and reissued. Congestion at the ports, delays at intermodal railyards, and shippers keeping boxes on chassis at warehouses too long are the biggest challenges chassis fleet operators face in keeping the chassis supply chain flowing smoothly, notes Val Noel, Trac’s executive vice president and chief operating officer.
“We have seen an uptick in both long-term terminal and street dwell,” he says. Chassis are sitting for an extended time out on the street, saddled with containers left unloaded due to labor and capacity issues at warehouses. He adds that shippers who have embraced “just in case” stocking practices have created inventory surpluses, which also impacts chassis return and reuse. “You don’t want to have product due in the store in November sitting in a container in June,” he notes.
One solution has been working with ports to establish “off terminal” distribution yards, which gets chassis out of ports and makes them available to more users in a central place. Trac established three such yards with the Port of New York & New Jersey. That allowed the chassis “to be used exclusively for pickup and delivery of cargo, not trapped in the marine terminal,” while supporting “better asset availability and utilization,” said Noel. That interoperability and flexibility to move any type of container “checked a lot of boxes people in our industry are clamoring for around change,” he noted.
If anything, the second half of the year will be a period that demands patience and perseverance as a shifting economy, inflation, rising interest rates, and other factors impact trucking operators. The biggest challenge? “If you are a small trucker, it’s staying alive,” says Jason Seidl, managing director at investment firm Cowen & Co. “If you have made it this far, you are battered and bruised. If you are a large trucker, the challenges are what they have always been: How do you ultimately maximize profit and grow?”
Penske said today that its facility in Channahon, Illinois, is now fully operational, and is predominantly powered by an onsite photovoltaic (PV) solar system, expected to generate roughly 80% of the building's energy needs at 200 KW capacity. Next, a Grand Rapids, Michigan, location will be also active in the coming months, and Penske's Linden, New Jersey, location is expected to go online in 2025.
And over the coming year, the Pennsylvania-based company will add seven more sites under its power purchase agreement with Sunrock Distributed Generation, retrofitting them with new PV solar systems which are expected to yield a total of roughly 600 KW of renewable energy. Those additional sites are all in California: Fresno, Hayward, La Mirada, National City, Riverside, San Diego, and San Leandro.
On average, four solar panel-powered Penske Truck Leasing facilities will generate an estimated 1-million-kilowatt hours (kWh) of renewable energy annually and will result in an emissions avoidance of 442 metric tons (MT) CO2e, which is equal to powering nearly 90 homes for one year.
"The initiative to install solar systems at our locations is a part of our company's LEED-certified facilities process," Ivet Taneva, Penske’s vice president of environmental affairs, said in a release. "Investing in solar has considerable economic impacts for our operations as well as the environmental benefits of further reducing emissions related to electricity use."
Overall, Penske Truck Leasing operates and maintains more than 437,000 vehicles and serves its customers from nearly 1,000 maintenance facilities and more than 2,500 truck rental locations across North America.
That challenge is one of the reasons that fewer shoppers overall are satisfied with their shopping experiences lately, Lincolnshire, Illinois-based Zebra said in its “17th Annual Global Shopper Study.”th Annual Global Shopper Study.” While 85% of shoppers last year were satisfied with both the in-store and online experiences, only 81% in 2024 are satisfied with the in-store experience and just 79% with online shopping.
In response, most retailers (78%) say they are investing in technology tools that can help both frontline workers and those watching operations from behind the scenes to minimize theft and loss, Zebra said.
Just 38% of retailers currently use AI-based prescriptive analytics for loss prevention, but a much larger 50% say they plan to use it in the next 1-3 years. That was followed by self-checkout cameras and sensors (45%), computer vision (46%), and RFID tags and readers (42%) that are planned for use within the next three years, specifically for loss prevention.
Those strategies could help improve the brick and mortar shopping experience, since 78% of shoppers say it’s annoying when products are locked up or secured within cases. Adding to that frustration is that it’s hard to find an associate while shopping in stores these days, according to 70% of consumers. In response, some just walk out; one in five shoppers has left a store without getting what they needed because a retail associate wasn’t available to help, an increase over the past two years.
The survey also identified additional frustrations faced by retailers and associates:
challenges with offering easy options for click-and-collect or returns, despite high shopper demand for them
the struggle to confirm current inventory and pricing
lingering labor shortages and increasing loss incidents, even as shoppers return to stores
“Many retailers are laying the groundwork to build a modern store experience,” Matt Guiste, Global Retail Technology Strategist, Zebra Technologies, said in a release. “They are investing in mobile and intelligent automation technologies to help inform operational decisions and enable associates to do the things that keep shoppers happy.”
The survey was administered online by Azure Knowledge Corporation and included 4,200 adult shoppers (age 18+), decision-makers, and associates, who replied to questions about the topics of shopper experience, device and technology usage, and delivery and fulfillment in store and online.
Supply chains are poised for accelerated adoption of mobile robots and drones as those technologies mature and companies focus on implementing artificial intelligence (AI) and automation across their logistics operations.
That’s according to data from Gartner’s Hype Cycle for Mobile Robots and Drones, released this week. The report shows that several mobile robotics technologies will mature over the next two to five years, and also identifies breakthrough and rising technologies set to have an impact further out.
Gartner’s Hype Cycle is a graphical depiction of a common pattern that arises with each new technology or innovation through five phases of maturity and adoption. Chief supply chain officers can use the research to find robotic solutions that meet their needs, according to Gartner.
Gartner, Inc.
The mobile robotic technologies set to mature over the next two to five years are: collaborative in-aisle picking robots, light-cargo delivery robots, autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) for transport, mobile robotic goods-to-person systems, and robotic cube storage systems.
“As organizations look to further improve logistic operations, support automation and augment humans in various jobs, supply chain leaders have turned to mobile robots to support their strategy,” Dwight Klappich, VP analyst and Gartner fellow with the Gartner Supply Chain practice, said in a statement announcing the findings. “Mobile robots are continuing to evolve, becoming more powerful and practical, thus paving the way for continued technology innovation.”
Technologies that are on the rise include autonomous data collection and inspection technologies, which are expected to deliver benefits over the next five to 10 years. These include solutions like indoor-flying drones, which utilize AI-enabled vision or RFID to help with time-consuming inventory management, inspection, and surveillance tasks. The technology can also alleviate safety concerns that arise in warehouses, such as workers counting inventory in hard-to-reach places.
“Automating labor-intensive tasks can provide notable benefits,” Klappich said. “With AI capabilities increasingly embedded in mobile robots and drones, the potential to function unaided and adapt to environments will make it possible to support a growing number of use cases.”
Humanoid robots—which resemble the human body in shape—are among the technologies in the breakthrough stage, meaning that they are expected to have a transformational effect on supply chains, but their mainstream adoption could take 10 years or more.
“For supply chains with high-volume and predictable processes, humanoid robots have the potential to enhance or supplement the supply chain workforce,” Klappich also said. “However, while the pace of innovation is encouraging, the industry is years away from general-purpose humanoid robots being used in more complex retail and industrial environments.”
An eight-year veteran of the Georgia company, Hakala will begin his new role on January 1, when the current CEO, Tero Peltomäki, will retire after a long and noteworthy career, continuing as a member of the board of directors, Cimcorp said.
According to Hakala, automation is an inevitable course in Cimcorp’s core sectors, and the company’s end-to-end capabilities will be crucial for clients’ success. In the past, both the tire and grocery retail industries have automated individual machines and parts of their operations. In recent years, automation has spread throughout the facilities, as companies want to be able to see their entire operation with one look, utilize analytics, optimize processes, and lead with data.
“Cimcorp has always grown by starting small in the new business segments. We’ve created one solution first, and as we’ve gained more knowledge of our clients’ challenges, we have been able to expand,” Hakala said in a release. “In every phase, we aim to bring our experience to the table and even challenge the client’s initial perspective. We are interested in what our client does and how it could be done better and more efficiently.”
Although many shoppers will
return to physical stores this holiday season, online shopping remains a driving force behind peak-season shipping challenges, especially when it comes to the last mile. Consumers still want fast, free shipping if they can get it—without any delays or disruptions to their holiday deliveries.
One disruptor that gets a lot of headlines this time of year is package theft—committed by so-called “porch pirates.” These are thieves who snatch parcels from front stairs, side porches, and driveways in neighborhoods across the country. The problem adds up to billions of dollars in stolen merchandise each year—not to mention headaches for shippers, parcel delivery companies, and, of course, consumers.
Given the scope of the problem, it’s no wonder online shoppers are worried about it—especially during holiday season. In its annual report on package theft trends, released in October, the
security-focused research and product review firm Security.org found that:
17% of Americans had a package stolen in the past three months, with the typical stolen parcel worth about $50. Some 44% said they’d had a package taken at some point in their life.
Package thieves poached more than $8 billion in merchandise over the past year.
18% of adults said they’d had a package stolen that contained a gift for someone else.
Ahead of the holiday season, 88% of adults said they were worried about theft of online purchases, with more than a quarter saying they were “extremely” or “very” concerned.
But it doesn’t have to be that way. There are some low-tech steps consumers can take to help guard against porch piracy along with some high-tech logistics-focused innovations in the pipeline that can protect deliveries in the last mile. First, some common-sense advice on avoiding package theft from the Security.org research:
Install a doorbell camera, which is a relatively low-cost deterrent.
Bring packages inside promptly or arrange to have them delivered to a secure location if no one will be at home.
Consider using click-and-collect options when possible.
If the retailer allows you to specify delivery-time windows, consider doing so to avoid having packages sit outside for extended periods.
These steps may sound basic, but they are by no means a given: Fewer than half of Americans consider the timing of deliveries, less than a third have a doorbell camera, and nearly one-fifth take no precautions to prevent package theft, according to the research.
Tech vendors are stepping up to help. One example is
Arrive AI, which develops smart mailboxes for last-mile delivery and pickup. The company says its Mailbox-as-a-Service (MaaS) platform will revolutionize the last mile by building a network of parcel-storage boxes that can be accessed by people, drones, or robots. In a nutshell: Packages are placed into a weatherproof box via drone, robot, driverless carrier, or traditional delivery method—and no one other than the rightful owner can access it.
Although the platform is still in development, the company already offers solutions for business clients looking to secure high-value deliveries and sensitive shipments. The health-care industry is one example: Arrive AI offers secure drone delivery of medical supplies, prescriptions, lab samples, and the like to hospitals and other health-care facilities. The platform provides real-time tracking, chain-of-custody controls, and theft-prevention features. Arrive is conducting short-term deployments between logistics companies and health-care partners now, according to a company spokesperson.
The MaaS solution has a pretty high cool factor. And the common-sense best practices just seem like solid advice. Maybe combining both is the key to a more secure last mile—during peak shipping season and throughout the year as well.