Ben Ames has spent 20 years as a journalist since starting out as a daily newspaper reporter in Pennsylvania in 1995. From 1999 forward, he has focused on business and technology reporting for a number of trade journals, beginning when he joined Design News and Modern Materials Handling magazines. Ames is author of the trail guide "Hiking Massachusetts" and is a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism.
“I am not betting on an official recession in the near term, but the most recent research pegs the risk over the next year as about one in three and it will be touch and go in 2023,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “In the meantime, a contracting economy short of a recession is not out of the question.”
The consumer outlook over the next few months remains favorable, providing a counterweight to the prospect of a downturn or whether it will meet the threshold of a recession, he said. “The economy is moving away from extremely strong growth toward moderate growth, but increased income from employment gains, rising wages and more hours worked is expected to support household spending,” Kleinhenz said.
According to the July issue of NRF’s Monthly Economic Review, U.S. job openings and quit rates suggest that the labor market remains tight, payroll growth remains sturdy despite a slowdown in May, and the unemployment rate has remained at 3.6%– just above a 50-year low seen before the pandemic – for three months in a row.
Those forces have combined to prop up retail sales, which were expected to drop in May but actually remained unchanged from April and grew 6.7% year over year. Those numbers come as consumers rebalance their spending as the covid pandemic eases its grip, driving increases in experiences—including restaurant sales and airline traffic—instead of physical goods.
Despite that moderate economic forecast from NRF, the transportation sector analysis firm ACT Research had a stormier prediction. The Columbus, Indiana-based firm today said that its analysts think the probability of a mild recession is now nearly as likely as that of their base-case scenario, which is a modest slowdown of topline freight growth.
ACT’s president and senior analyst, Kenny Vieth, acknowledged the healthy consumer spending figures that the NRF report had cited, but said trouble is in the wind.
“With the current head of steam that includes healthy consumer and business balance sheets, strong employment demand, and pent-up manufacturing sector activity, this inflation driven economic slowdown is on one hand somewhat unique,” Vieth said. “On the other, traditional recession predictors are in play: Fed rate hikes, high energy prices, negative exogenous events, and falling equity valuations come to mind. Some have called the current period of turbulence, unprecedented, and there is a growing consensus around the notion that we promote here: A slowdown is coming. We don’t know if it will be shallower or deeper.”
President-elect Donald Trump today picked Sean Duffy as his nomination to lead the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) for the next four years, choosing a former Republican U.S. Rep. for Wisconsin and current Fox News television host, according to published reports.
Duffy served in the U.S. House for nearly nine years after he found fame as a reality TV show cast member on a spinoff show from the MTV hit series “The Real World” and then as district attorney for a county in Wisconsin. As he named his choice for the potential cabinet slot, Trump noted that Duffy also met his wife on that television series, marrying a fellow actor who also went on to become a Fox News TV personality.
If Duffy earns confirmation by the U.S. Senate, he would become the second Fox News media employee after potential Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Duffy would replace current DOT Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a Biden Administration pick who succeeded former Trump Administration choice Elaine Chao, who resigned in the wake of the deadly January 6 riots following Trump’s election loss in 2020.
Following news of the nomination, trucking industry group the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) urged Duffy to concentrate on a handful of specific issues. “OOIDA and the 150,000 small business truckers we represent congratulate Representative Sean Duffy on his nomination as Secretary of Transportation,” OOIDA President Todd Spencer said in a statement. “We look forward to working with him in advancing the priorities of small business truckers across America, including expanding truck parking, fighting freight fraud, and rolling back unnecessary regulations. We encourage a swift confirmation in the Senate and look forward to working with the new administration.”
Likewise, the current Ranking Member of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, Rick Larsen (D-WA), said he hoped to work with Duffy to pass a bipartisan surface transportation bill in the next term.
“This Congress, the T&I Committee has advanced major bipartisan legislation to keep people and the economy moving, including the FAA Reauthorization Act, the Water Resources Development Act, and the Coast Guard Authorization Act,” Larsen said in an email. “Next Congress, I look forward to working with my T&I colleagues to build on this bipartisan work by passing a surface transportation bill—which Congress has consistently done for the past 25 years—that will create good-paying jobs and build a cleaner, greener, safer and more accessible transportation system across the country. Transportation policy has a long bipartisan history, and I look forward to continuing to maintain the tradition under Former Representative Sean Duffy’s leadership and working together to pass the next surface transportation authorization, creating more jobs, if he is confirmed as Secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation.”
That challenge is one of the reasons that fewer shoppers overall are satisfied with their shopping experiences lately, Lincolnshire, Illinois-based Zebra said in its “17th Annual Global Shopper Study.”th Annual Global Shopper Study.” While 85% of shoppers last year were satisfied with both the in-store and online experiences, only 81% in 2024 are satisfied with the in-store experience and just 79% with online shopping.
In response, most retailers (78%) say they are investing in technology tools that can help both frontline workers and those watching operations from behind the scenes to minimize theft and loss, Zebra said.
Just 38% of retailers currently use AI-based prescriptive analytics for loss prevention, but a much larger 50% say they plan to use it in the next 1-3 years. That was followed by self-checkout cameras and sensors (45%), computer vision (46%), and RFID tags and readers (42%) that are planned for use within the next three years, specifically for loss prevention.
Those strategies could help improve the brick and mortar shopping experience, since 78% of shoppers say it’s annoying when products are locked up or secured within cases. Adding to that frustration is that it’s hard to find an associate while shopping in stores these days, according to 70% of consumers. In response, some just walk out; one in five shoppers has left a store without getting what they needed because a retail associate wasn’t available to help, an increase over the past two years.
The survey also identified additional frustrations faced by retailers and associates:
challenges with offering easy options for click-and-collect or returns, despite high shopper demand for them
the struggle to confirm current inventory and pricing
lingering labor shortages and increasing loss incidents, even as shoppers return to stores
“Many retailers are laying the groundwork to build a modern store experience,” Matt Guiste, Global Retail Technology Strategist, Zebra Technologies, said in a release. “They are investing in mobile and intelligent automation technologies to help inform operational decisions and enable associates to do the things that keep shoppers happy.”
The survey was administered online by Azure Knowledge Corporation and included 4,200 adult shoppers (age 18+), decision-makers, and associates, who replied to questions about the topics of shopper experience, device and technology usage, and delivery and fulfillment in store and online.
An eight-year veteran of the Georgia company, Hakala will begin his new role on January 1, when the current CEO, Tero Peltomäki, will retire after a long and noteworthy career, continuing as a member of the board of directors, Cimcorp said.
According to Hakala, automation is an inevitable course in Cimcorp’s core sectors, and the company’s end-to-end capabilities will be crucial for clients’ success. In the past, both the tire and grocery retail industries have automated individual machines and parts of their operations. In recent years, automation has spread throughout the facilities, as companies want to be able to see their entire operation with one look, utilize analytics, optimize processes, and lead with data.
“Cimcorp has always grown by starting small in the new business segments. We’ve created one solution first, and as we’ve gained more knowledge of our clients’ challenges, we have been able to expand,” Hakala said in a release. “In every phase, we aim to bring our experience to the table and even challenge the client’s initial perspective. We are interested in what our client does and how it could be done better and more efficiently.”
Although many shoppers will
return to physical stores this holiday season, online shopping remains a driving force behind peak-season shipping challenges, especially when it comes to the last mile. Consumers still want fast, free shipping if they can get it—without any delays or disruptions to their holiday deliveries.
One disruptor that gets a lot of headlines this time of year is package theft—committed by so-called “porch pirates.” These are thieves who snatch parcels from front stairs, side porches, and driveways in neighborhoods across the country. The problem adds up to billions of dollars in stolen merchandise each year—not to mention headaches for shippers, parcel delivery companies, and, of course, consumers.
Given the scope of the problem, it’s no wonder online shoppers are worried about it—especially during holiday season. In its annual report on package theft trends, released in October, the
security-focused research and product review firm Security.org found that:
17% of Americans had a package stolen in the past three months, with the typical stolen parcel worth about $50. Some 44% said they’d had a package taken at some point in their life.
Package thieves poached more than $8 billion in merchandise over the past year.
18% of adults said they’d had a package stolen that contained a gift for someone else.
Ahead of the holiday season, 88% of adults said they were worried about theft of online purchases, with more than a quarter saying they were “extremely” or “very” concerned.
But it doesn’t have to be that way. There are some low-tech steps consumers can take to help guard against porch piracy along with some high-tech logistics-focused innovations in the pipeline that can protect deliveries in the last mile. First, some common-sense advice on avoiding package theft from the Security.org research:
Install a doorbell camera, which is a relatively low-cost deterrent.
Bring packages inside promptly or arrange to have them delivered to a secure location if no one will be at home.
Consider using click-and-collect options when possible.
If the retailer allows you to specify delivery-time windows, consider doing so to avoid having packages sit outside for extended periods.
These steps may sound basic, but they are by no means a given: Fewer than half of Americans consider the timing of deliveries, less than a third have a doorbell camera, and nearly one-fifth take no precautions to prevent package theft, according to the research.
Tech vendors are stepping up to help. One example is
Arrive AI, which develops smart mailboxes for last-mile delivery and pickup. The company says its Mailbox-as-a-Service (MaaS) platform will revolutionize the last mile by building a network of parcel-storage boxes that can be accessed by people, drones, or robots. In a nutshell: Packages are placed into a weatherproof box via drone, robot, driverless carrier, or traditional delivery method—and no one other than the rightful owner can access it.
Although the platform is still in development, the company already offers solutions for business clients looking to secure high-value deliveries and sensitive shipments. The health-care industry is one example: Arrive AI offers secure drone delivery of medical supplies, prescriptions, lab samples, and the like to hospitals and other health-care facilities. The platform provides real-time tracking, chain-of-custody controls, and theft-prevention features. Arrive is conducting short-term deployments between logistics companies and health-care partners now, according to a company spokesperson.
The MaaS solution has a pretty high cool factor. And the common-sense best practices just seem like solid advice. Maybe combining both is the key to a more secure last mile—during peak shipping season and throughout the year as well.
The Boston-based enterprise software vendor Board has acquired the California company Prevedere, a provider of predictive planning technology, saying the move will integrate internal performance metrics with external economic intelligence.
According to Board, the combined technologies will integrate millions of external data points—ranging from macroeconomic indicators to AI-driven predictive models—to help companies build predictive models for critical planning needs, cutting costs by reducing inventory excess and optimizing logistics in response to global trade dynamics.
That is particularly valuable in today’s rapidly changing markets, where companies face evolving customer preferences and economic shifts, the company said. “Our customers spend significant time analyzing internal data but often lack visibility into how external factors might impact their planning,” Jeff Casale, CEO of Board, said in a release. “By integrating Prevedere, we eliminate those blind spots, equipping executives with a complete view of their operating environment. This empowers them to respond dynamically to market changes and make informed decisions that drive competitive advantage.”