Will last-mile providers survive a record peak season?
This year’s peak season is proving to be one of unprecedented challenges for providers of “big and bulky” last-mile delivery services, who are struggling with capacity issues amid soaring demand. What’s the outlook?
Gary Frantz is a contributing editor for DC Velocity and its sister publication, Supply Chain Xchange. He is a veteran communications executive with more than 30 years of experience in the transportation and logistics industries. He's served as communications director and strategic media relations counselor for companies including XPO Logistics, Con-way, Menlo Logistics, GT Nexus, Circle International Group, and Consolidated Freightways. Gary is currently principal of GNF Communications LLC, a consultancy providing freelance writing, editorial and media strategy services. He's a proud graduate of the Journalism program at California State University–Chico.
One of the surprising developments from the pandemic was how quickly consumers took to online shopping for all manner of goods and services. Sheltering and working at home, unable to go to their favorite store to touch and feel the merchandise, their reluctance to buy online evaporated. That trend was particularly notable among the baby boomer generation. Once they became comfortable with the experience, the idea of having that order delivered to the home in the next day or two became not just acceptable but expected—for just about anything.
The result was an explosion in last-mile deliveries to the home. And not only of small parcels and packages. It also fueled a surge in the so-called large-format “big and bulky” items that required not just basic dropoff, but also “over-the-threshold white-glove” delivery services in the consumer’s home that included assembly and installation—for items like furniture; appliances and mattresses; desks, chairs, and computers for newly organized home offices; and exercise equipment.
It’s a segment of the transportation industry that some believe has the most compelling prospects for growth. “The market will continue to have a need for big and bulky deliveries; it will be a growth area,” notes Satish Jindel, president of transportation data analytics firm ShipMatrix, “particularly as consumers are more and more comfortable ordering online and the conversion [to e-commerce from brick-and-mortar retail] continues to take place.”
One industry estimate of the heavy-goods delivery market calls it a $13 billion business currently, with 33% of that revenue from orders placed online. Several years down the road, researchers project that number will grow to $16 billion, with 38% of that revenue from online sales.
SPEED BUMPS AHEAD
The surge in demand has retailers, e-tailers, and their last-mile providers scrambling across many fronts. As the 2021 peak season begins to hit its December stride, challenges with capacity, product availability, and delays due to supply chain bottlenecks and port congestion all are conspiring to make this holiday season one where consumers are more likely to see coal in their stockings than presents under the tree.
“The market for capacity is definitely tight, and we’ve experienced increased carrier costs like the rest of the industry,” notes Erik Caldwell, president of last mile for transport and logistics giant XPO. “With supply chains strained everywhere, we are working more closely with our customers than ever before. We’re forecasting together, planning together, and working with them to be as open and transparent on timing for them and the end-consumer.” XPO operates North America’s largest network for big and bulky last-mile deliveries. It has 85 locations, some 1,800 carriers, and access to about 4,400 trucks. For the 12 months ending Sept. 30, XPO’s last-mile operation made over 11 million deliveries for customers such as Ikea and Peloton.
Likewise, Jeff Abeson, vice president of Ryder Last Mile, notes that his company is “not immune to what is going on” in the industry. “Most certainly, the sheer amount of volume is creating some challenges,” he says. A shortage of delivery contractors also is requiring more creativity in recruiting and retention. “It is a competitive market, and we have to be very attractive to get them to come in and support our business,” he notes.
Nevertheless, Abeson believes that the large-format home-delivery market continues to present opportunities and will only continue to grow, given how consumers have embraced online buying and won’t be going back. With more than 100 locations, the Ryder Last Mile network can cover 95% of the U.S., including Puerto Rico and Hawaii, within a two-day time frame.
Abeson believes players who have the network resources, expertise, and technology to ensure consistent, efficient deliveries and a superior customer experience will thrive. “The interesting part, and maybe a touch ironic, [is that] making deliveries that cross the threshold into the home has actually become a little easier [during the pandemic],” he says. That’s largely a result of the Covid-driven shift to remote work, he explains, noting that because consumers are working from home more often, “they are more available to take deliveries.” As a result, “our scheduling has actually become more efficient,” he says.
A recurring challenge in today’s stressed supply chains: getting all the pieces of an order together for final delivery, Abeson notes. A dining room table comes into the warehouse on Tuesday. Two chairs arrive on Thursday. The other four chairs don’t arrive until Monday. “So, we have [a partial order] sitting in the warehouse that we can’t deliver, and we don’t want to [make a delivery] twice,” which requires extra allocation of space and labor—and detracts from the overall consumer experience.
IT’S ALL IN THE RELATIONSHIPS
Like the other carrier executives interviewed for this story, Todd Soiefer, executive vice president of corporate development at Pilot Freight Services, acknowledges the difficulties presented by rising volumes, but he says he’s confident his company is up to the challenge. Soiefer leads Pilot’s last-mile service team. As the second-largest white-glove home delivery company in the market, Pilot Last Mile dispatches some 1,200 teams per day nationwide. Its network includes 65 company stations with Pilot-branded equipment and employees, as well as other Pilot-managed crews operating from some 100 customer locations.
Soiefer says Pilot has ample capacity to handle surging peak season shipping. “We can flex up our fleet with our carriers” and quickly deploy added capacity to meet peak demand, he notes.
“We have very long-standing relationships with our carrier base and are in all the major metro areas,” he adds. For last-mile trucking providers, the advantage to working with a large organization like Pilot, says Soiefer, is “access to multiple customers to keep the crews working.”
He also cites the importance of “treating people right,” referring to the truck drivers his company depends on. “We treat everyone like it is a family company,” he says. That includes not only offering competitive compensation, Soiefer notes, but also doing what he calls “the little things.” “When [the driver] shows up for a load, it’s ready. They don’t have to wait,” their route is organized, orders staged, and appointments for the day scheduled and confirmed. “We communicate extensively and try to make sure [negative] things don’t happen.”
And while he says it’s an “arm’s length relationship” with the company’s contract carriers, Pilot strives to build loyalty by helping small operators build their business. “We find some of these companies when they are small; they put a few trucks with us, they are able to grow to 15–20 trucks, and that generates loyalty leading to long-term relationships,” Soiefer says. He adds that Pilot doesn’t stand in the way of delivery providers working for other clients. “If they want to run five trucks with us and some with others, that’s fine,” he says.
TECHNOLOGY DRIVES MARKET CHANGE
At the same time it’s coping with record demand, the last-mile delivery market is undergoing a digital transformation—one driven largely by the emergence and adoption of powerful mobile-based technology for scheduling, routing, optimization, and engaging directly with the customer.
“In my 20 years of experience in last mile, [technology] is the part of the business that has changed the most,” says XPO’s Caldwell. “It amazes me how quiet the sites are without all the telephone scheduling and constant chatter on handheld radios for dispatch updates.”
He sees the industry quickly moving away from phone calls, with voicemail a relic of the past. “Everything is communicated to the end-customer via text or email,” from scheduling appointments to delivery updates, he notes. GPS tracking provides real-time information that “can alert customers when the delivery is 30 minutes away,” he adds. “Calls from customers about deliveries are down about 20% from the past year, which indicates our process is becoming more efficient,” Caldwell says.
And while large operators like XPO, Pilot, and Ryder offer comprehensive technology solutions used by many last-mile delivery contractors, those systems typically are built to support delivery orders within that company’s ecosystem. That’s left many final-mile white glove carriers, most of whom work with multiple shippers, retailers, and other distribution and logistics providers (and by extension, their various systems), standing on the sidelines of the digital revolution, says Krishna Vattipalli, founder and CEO of software developer Imaginnovate. What the market has lacked until now, he says, is a single system designed to help these carriers manage their business and seamlessly exchange information.
To fill that gap, Imaginnovate earlier this year launched Fleet Enable, a cloud-hosted mobile-app–focused suite of software tools that Vattipalli calls “the first software solution designed expressly for the operating needs of big and bulky white-glove delivery providers.” Offered on a subscription basis, Fleet Enable streamlines the full scope of a last-mile carrier’s planning, operating, and financial administration workflows andenables it to connect—through EDI (electronic data interchange) feeds, APIs (application programming interfaces), and other means—to the multiple third-party service providers and retailers for which it’s taking orders and making across-the-threshold deliveries. Vattipalli believes the addressable market is the more than 10,000 carriers who do last-mile white-glove deliveries, 80% of which are independent contractors with fleets of 50 to100 trucks and delivery teams.
Fleet Enable already has a supporter in Lorri Fairchild, vice president at Leigh-David Logistics, which specializes in complex white-glove deliveries. “This software will create efficiencies for our team in receiving, scheduling, load optimization, customer updates, accounting functions, and more. It is everything we had spent years looking for,” she says.
“ALL THE TRUCKS ARE FULL”
As peak season surges on, carriers who find themselves running short on capacity have limited options. “Right now, you have to think about how to maximize capacity use with what you have because you can’t add capacity. All the trucks are full,” says ShipMatrix’s Jindel. “There are no vans to lease. Trucks are not being produced.” And congestion among ports, rails, and truckers is throwing a wrench into everything, “It’s ruined [shippers’ and carriers’] ability to plan and forecast what they will get and when.”
Yet for those who are prepared, opportunity often presents itself out of seeming chaos. “We live for peak season. We spend all year planning for it,” says XPO’s Caldwell. “This is what we do—deliver Christmas.”
Autonomous forklift maker Cyngn is deploying its DriveMod Tugger model at COATS Company, the largest full-line wheel service equipment manufacturer in North America, the companies said today.
By delivering the self-driving tuggers to COATS’ 150,000+ square foot manufacturing facility in La Vergne, Tennessee, Cyngn said it would enable COATS to enhance efficiency by automating the delivery of wheel service components from its production lines.
“Cyngn’s self-driving tugger was the perfect solution to support our strategy of advancing automation and incorporating scalable technology seamlessly into our operations,” Steve Bergmeyer, Continuous Improvement and Quality Manager at COATS, said in a release. “With its high load capacity, we can concentrate on increasing our ability to manage heavier components and bulk orders, driving greater efficiency, reducing costs, and accelerating delivery timelines.”
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but it follows another deployment of DriveMod Tuggers with electric automaker Rivian earlier this year.
Manufacturing and logistics workers are raising a red flag over workplace quality issues according to industry research released this week.
A comparative study of more than 4,000 workers from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia found that manufacturing and logistics workers say they have seen colleagues reduce the quality of their work and not follow processes in the workplace over the past year, with rates exceeding the overall average by 11% and 8%, respectively.
The study—the Resilience Nation report—was commissioned by UK-based regulatory and compliance software company Ideagen, and it polled workers in industries such as energy, aviation, healthcare, and financial services. The results “explore the major threats and macroeconomic factors affecting people today, providing perspectives on resilience across global landscapes,” according to the authors.
According to the study, 41% of manufacturing and logistics workers said they’d witnessed their peers hiding mistakes, and 45% said they’ve observed coworkers cutting corners due to apathy—9% above the average. The results also showed that workers are seeing colleagues take safety risks: More than a third of respondents said they’ve seen people putting themselves in physical danger at work.
The authors said growing pressure inside and outside of the workplace are to blame for the lack of diligence and resiliency on the job. Internally, workers say they are under pressure to deliver more despite reduced capacity. Among the external pressures, respondents cited the rising cost of living as the biggest problem (39%), closely followed by inflation rates, supply chain challenges, and energy prices.
“People are being asked to deliver more at work when their resilience is being challenged by economic and political headwinds,” Ideagen’s CEO Ben Dorks said in a statement announcing the findings. “Ultimately, this is having a determinantal impact on business productivity, workplace health and safety, and the quality of work produced, as well as further reducing the resilience of the nation at large.”
Respondents said they believe technology will eventually alleviate some of the stress occurring in manufacturing and logistics, however.
“People are optimistic that emerging tech and AI will ultimately lighten the load, but they’re not yet feeling the benefits,” Dorks added. “It’s a gap that now, more than ever, business leaders must look to close and support their workforce to ensure their staff remain safe and compliance needs are met across the business.”
The “2024 Year in Review” report lists the various transportation delays, freight volume restrictions, and infrastructure repair costs of a long string of events. Those disruptions include labor strikes at Canadian ports and postal sites, the U.S. East and Gulf coast port strike; hurricanes Helene, Francine, and Milton; the Francis Scott key Bridge collapse in Baltimore Harbor; the CrowdStrike cyber attack; and Red Sea missile attacks on passing cargo ships.
“While 2024 was characterized by frequent and overlapping disruptions that exposed many supply chain vulnerabilities, it was also a year of resilience,” the Project44 report said. “From labor strikes and natural disasters to geopolitical tensions, each event served as a critical learning opportunity, underscoring the necessity for robust contingency planning, effective labor relations, and durable infrastructure. As supply chains continue to evolve, the lessons learned this past year highlight the increased importance of proactive measures and collaborative efforts. These strategies are essential to fostering stability and adaptability in a world where unpredictability is becoming the norm.”
In addition to tallying the supply chain impact of those events, the report also made four broad predictions for trends in 2025 that may affect logistics operations. In Project44’s analysis, they include:
More technology and automation will be introduced into supply chains, particularly ports. This will help make operations more efficient but also increase the risk of cybersecurity attacks and service interruptions due to glitches and bugs. This could also add tensions among the labor pool and unions, who do not want jobs to be replaced with automation.
The new administration in the United States introduces a lot of uncertainty, with talks of major tariffs for numerous countries as well as talks of US freight getting preferential treatment through the Panama Canal. If these things do come to fruition, expect to see shifts in global trade patterns and sourcing.
Natural disasters will continue to become more frequent and more severe, as exhibited by the wildfires in Los Angeles and the winter storms throughout the southern states in the U.S. As a result, expect companies to invest more heavily in sustainability to mitigate climate change.
The peace treaty announced on Wednesday between Isael and Hamas in the Middle East could support increased freight volumes returning to the Suez Canal as political crisis in the area are resolved.
The French transportation visibility provider Shippeo today said it has raised $30 million in financial backing, saying the money will support its accelerated expansion across North America and APAC, while driving enhancements to its “Real-Time Transportation Visibility Platform” product.
The funding round was led by Woven Capital, Toyota’s growth fund, with participation from existing investors: Battery Ventures, Partech, NGP Capital, Bpifrance Digital Venture, LFX Venture Partners, Shift4Good and Yamaha Motor Ventures. With this round, Shippeo’s total funding exceeds $140 million.
Shippeo says it offers real-time shipment tracking across all transport modes, helping companies create sustainable, resilient supply chains. Its platform enables users to reduce logistics-related carbon emissions by making informed trade-offs between modes and carriers based on carbon footprint data.
"Global supply chains are facing unprecedented complexity, and real-time transport visibility is essential for building resilience” Prashant Bothra, Principal at Woven Capital, who is joining the Shippeo board, said in a release. “Shippeo’s platform empowers businesses to proactively address disruptions by transforming fragmented operations into streamlined, data-driven processes across all transport modes, offering precise tracking and predictive ETAs at scale—capabilities that would be resource-intensive to develop in-house. We are excited to support Shippeo’s journey to accelerate digitization while enhancing cost efficiency, planning accuracy, and customer experience across the supply chain.”
Donald Trump has been clear that he plans to hit the ground running after his inauguration on January 20, launching ambitious plans that could have significant repercussions for global supply chains.
As Mark Baxa, CSCMP president and CEO, says in the executive forward to the white paper, the incoming Trump Administration and a majority Republican congress are “poised to reshape trade policies, regulatory frameworks, and the very fabric of how we approach global commerce.”
The paper is written by import/export expert Thomas Cook, managing director for Blue Tiger International, a U.S.-based supply chain management consulting company that focuses on international trade. Cook is the former CEO of American River International in New York and Apex Global Logistics Supply Chain Operation in Los Angeles and has written 19 books on global trade.
In the paper, Cook, of course, takes a close look at tariff implications and new trade deals, emphasizing that Trump will seek revisions that will favor U.S. businesses and encourage manufacturing to return to the U.S. The paper, however, also looks beyond global trade to addresses topics such as Trump’s tougher stance on immigration and the possibility of mass deportations, greater support of Israel in the Middle East, proposals for increased energy production and mining, and intent to end the war in the Ukraine.
In general, Cook believes that many of the administration’s new policies will be beneficial to the overall economy. He does warn, however, that some policies will be disruptive and add risk and cost to global supply chains.
In light of those risks and possible disruptions, Cook’s paper offers 14 recommendations. Some of which include:
Create a team responsible for studying the changes Trump will introduce when he takes office;
Attend trade shows and make connections with vendors, suppliers, and service providers who can help you navigate those changes;
Consider becoming C-TPAT (Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism) certified to help mitigate potential import/export issues;
Adopt a risk management mindset and shift from focusing on lowest cost to best value for your spend;
Increase collaboration with internal and external partners;
Expect warehousing costs to rise in the short term as companies look to bring in foreign-made goods ahead of tariffs;
Expect greater scrutiny from U.S. Customs and Border Patrol of origin statements for imports in recognition of attempts by some Chinese manufacturers to evade U.S. import policies;
Reduce dependency on China for sourcing; and
Consider manufacturing and/or sourcing in the United States.
Cook advises readers to expect a loosening up of regulations and a reduction in government under Trump. He warns that while some world leaders will look to work with Trump, others will take more of a defiant stance. As a result, companies should expect to see retaliatory tariffs and duties on exports.
Cook concludes by offering advice to the incoming administration, including being sensitive to the effect retaliatory tariffs can have on American exports, working on federal debt reduction, and considering promoting free trade zones. He also proposes an ambitious water works program through the Army Corps of Engineers.