Last-mile providers navigate “the mother of all peaks”
Last-mile logistics had been experiencing a growth spurt leading into 2020. Then the pandemic—and the e-commerce explosion—put it on steroids. How will that change the dynamics of—and the demand for—last-mile service?
Gary Frantz is a contributing editor for DC Velocity and its sister publication, Supply Chain Xchange. He is a veteran communications executive with more than 30 years of experience in the transportation and logistics industries. He's served as communications director and strategic media relations counselor for companies including XPO Logistics, Con-way, Menlo Logistics, GT Nexus, Circle International Group, and Consolidated Freightways. Gary is currently principal of GNF Communications LLC, a consultancy providing freelance writing, editorial and media strategy services. He's a proud graduate of the Journalism program at California State University–Chico.
Last-mile deliveries, whether small packages; large, oversized “non-conveyable” goods; or big and bulky items like furniture and exercise equipment, have always been the most challenging and often most complex segment of the supply chain cycle. Already one of the strongest growth areas for freight, the last-mile market has exploded in the past eight months, the result of a pandemic-driven surge in residence-delivered goods of all types as consumers found themselves sequestered at home, with malls shuttered, offices dark, and shops closed down for the duration.
“As we’ve all seen, the pandemic has supercharged demand for more goods with the growth in e-commerce,” noted Erik Caldwell, president of last-mile logistics for Greenwich, Connecticut-based XPO Logistics, the largest provider of last-mile logistics service for heavy goods in North America, managing some 10 million deliveries and installations annually.
And with more people at home, the demand for final-mile delivery and installation has gone through the roof. “This year, we’ve seen the big and heavy delivery market grow to $13 billion, up from $8 billion in 2013,” with the market expected to reach some $16 billion to $18 billion by the end of 2023, Caldwell says. By then, online purchases are likely to make up some 40% of heavy-goods home delivery.
XPO’s last-mile network consists of 85 hubs in North America that are within 125 miles of 90% of the population, enabling daily delivery to 80% of ZIP codes, the company says. It dispatches more than 3,500 last-mile delivery trucks per day.
PARCEL “BLEED OVER” PUTS PRESSURE ON CAPACITY
The crush of e-commerce–ordered goods, and the resulting capacity constraints faced by major parcel carriers, is creating a “bleed over” of some shipments into traditional last-mile networks, notes John Hill, president and chief commercial officer of Glen Mills, Pennsylvania-based Pilot Freight Services, which among other offerings, provides last-mile delivery. With parcel carriers imposing surcharges and volume limits, particularly with larger, non-conveyable shipments, e-commerce shippers are looking for other options.
“This phenomenon is absolutely happening,” Hill says. “Large e-retailers [faced with volume limitations from parcel carriers] are going to other providers and saying ‘I know you are my heavyweight provider, but instead of 150 pounds and up, can you take my 100 or 75 [pound shipments],’” he notes. “That’s not easy to do because we have to protect our current customers and not inundate ourselves with [freight] that might come and go.”
Early in the pandemic, Hill and his team were preparing to retrench, scale down the business, and take care of employees. Yet he was surprised by the market’s quick turnaround. While traditional B2B (business-to-business) volumes slid in April, by May, an unexpected and sustained surge in e-commerce volume emerged—driving up demand for B2C (business-to-consumer) home deliveries. “We didn’t expect that … now we are moving more B2C traffic,” which took up the slack but came with some additional soft costs typical of residential deliveries.
Pilot has 65 locations in North America that offer the full range of what Hill calls “full mile” delivery services. Another 39 sites are a combination of some dedicated last-mile delivery operations and some multiclient warehouses that provide forward-stocking and staging. Pilot also runs several “back of store” operations for big-box retailers and e-tailers for fast delivery within a 100-mile radius.
A CONTINUOUS PEAK, THEN A FLOOD OF RETURNS
Virtually all last-mile providers agree that the market has been in a continuous “peak” since late March—thanks to the explosion in e-commerce as consumers began ordering all manner of staples online. The traditional holiday season has added even more pressure.
“And just like we’re seeing the mother of all peaks today, we’re expecting the “mother of all returns” season come January,” comments XPO’s Caldwell. He believes there is a natural connection between the rise of e-commerce and the business of returns. According to Caldwell, XPO’s network has centers dedicated to returns, which typically manage the pickup of the item and the return to the original manufacturer. He notes that about 10% of XPO’s last-mile deliveries involve managing some type of return—“either the homeowner decides they don’t want the new product, or we remove an old item when we install the new one.”
Scott Leveridge, president, U.S., for North American final-mile provider TForce Logistics, categorizes the last-mile market into three segments: small package, heavier non-conveyable, and big and bulky. He echoes the experience of other providers that the pandemic has brought about a “huge explosion” in small-package volume as consumers ramped up their online ordering.
It’s also driving increasingly severe capacity constraints among large national parcel carriers, who, Leveridge says, “have gotten really picky about what they will and will not handle,” especially with non-conveyable goods. As non-conveyables are rejected, that’s created secondary opportunities for last-mile carriers to take on more of these heavier, larger, and sometimes odd-shaped shipments, which often exceed 150 pounds.
TForce Logistics operates in over 50 U.S. markets, maintains some 2.5 million square feet of warehouse space, and deploys 6,000 drivers. The company also has 23 operating sites in Canada with 300,000 square feet of warehousing and cross-dock space, and 2,000 drivers. “We call it an urban cross-dock,” Leveridge says of TForce’s facilities. “Ninety-eight percent of the inventory that goes through our building came in tonight and it’s gone in the morning. We are the final-mile launch point to get the product to that end-consumer quickly.”
A CHANGE IN MIX
Like other last-mile providers, TForce has seen its mix change. Mostly gone is retail replenishment. Replacing that and then some has been e-commerce–driven consumer home deliveries, across all three segments. “There is no question e-commerce has grown and continues to do so,” Leveridge says. “Quite frankly, we have cut off some customers for peak, and we are scheduling new starts for Q1.”
An unexpected source of new last-mile deliveries for TForce: meal kits. “People are not eating out as much, and that’s really accelerated the meal-kit industry,” Leveridge says. Companies like Hello Fresh, Plated, and Blue Apron are thriving. Some restaurants have pivoted from inside dining to fully prepared and delivered meal kits. Consumers watching celebrity chefs on YouTube are ordering online and having kits delivered with all the ingredients for that chef’s recipes of the week.
The last significant shift Leveridge has seen has been a rise in store-to-door deliveries, particularly in the home improvement space. “More and more e-commerce orders are being fulfilled at local stores, where we send a truck and do the last-mile delivery to the customer,” he notes. For one big-box home improvement brand, TForce supports final-mile expedited delivery for some 500 stores in 40 markets.
THE GYM COMES HOME
Like other segments of the last-mile logistics market, the “big and bulky” piece has been on a roller coaster ride this year.
“This business has always been tough,” Jeff Abeson, vice president of Miami, Florida-based Ryder Last Mile, says of home delivery of large-format goods. “Going across the threshold into some of the most private spaces of people’s homes, such as delivering [and assembling] a crib into a bedroom for a baby yet to be born …. there’s a lot of emotions that go into it,” he observes. “These are [often] fairly large financial purchases. The level of attention and care, being respectful of the homeowner, are really relevant and always will be.”
The pandemic initially slowed the volume of home delivery and installation work, as both consumers and delivery companies struggled to cope with the realities of Covid-19. “Safety [has been] the utmost concern for our employees and also for the end-consumer,” emphasized Abeson. He says Ryder is in compliance with CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) guidelines and has instituted multiple safety practices, including contactless delivery, social distancing, and extensive use of protective gear and disinfectants.
The biggest lift he’s seen has been in home fitness equipment. “With peoples’ aversion to going to public gyms, they have brought the gyms home to themselves,” he says. “Nobody expected this demand in home fitness products,” which typically are large and bulky and require a two-person crew for delivery.
Nevertheless, Covid has presented some unique challenges. “[Sometimes] when we go into homes, our drivers actually don’t feel comfortable because consumers might not be as diligent” about wearing masks, social distancing, and other safety practices. “It [can be] a somewhat challenging environment.”
Ryder Last Mile’s network consists of more than 120 locations throughout the U.S. that the company says can reach 99% of the U.S. population in two days or less. The company utilizes a network of trusted carriers for deliveries of big and bulky goods, and offers four tiers of service, including white glove.
A NEED FOR NATIONWIDE SOLUTIONS
Craig Stoffel heads up Werner Final Mile as vice president, global logistics for Omaha, Nebraska-based Werner Enterprises, one of the nation’s largest transportation and logistics companies. With some 175 last-mile service locations in the U.S. and 40 in Canada, the company offers traditional curbside and over-the-threshold final-mile delivery as well as “room of choice” and white glove service with assembly. “Once product arrives at the local station, we get it out [to the customer] the same day or next day,” Stoffel says.
Werner’s final-mile model is an integrated solution that leverages Werner technology with third-party professionals and assets in the household-goods moving and storage business. “These are crews experienced in dealing with the intricacies of in-home deliveries and all the nuances that go with that,” Stoffel notes. He adds that Werner Final Mile offers such advantages as a national network footprint that covers major metro populations and secondary communities; fast response and shorter travel times with experienced crews already in and familiar with local neighborhoods; and leading-edge delivery and visibility technology.
Stoffel has seen growth come from large-format brand-name retailers, e-tailers, and consumer goods brands—who are already familiar with Werner as a transportation enterprise—as well as many companies new to nationwide consumer-direct selling who have quickly upped their e-commerce game to survive the pandemic.
“They may have previously done local BOPIS [buy online/pick up in store], but with the pandemic, store traffic has disappeared,” he notes. “Now they are seeking an integrated, nationwide delivery solution that will get goods to consumers at home wherever that may be, from wherever the nearest fulfillment site is, which could be a former brick-and-mortar location. As long as they have a shopping cart on their website and a button for delivery, we can spin up an efficient and reliable final-mile solution for them,” Stoffel says.
There’s a photo from 1971 that John Kent, professor of supply chain management at the University of Arkansas, likes to show. It’s of a shaggy-haired 18-year-old named Glenn Cowan grinning at three-time world table tennis champion Zhuang Zedong, while holding a silk tapestry Zhuang had just given him. Cowan was a member of the U.S. table tennis team who participated in the 1971 World Table Tennis Championships in Nagoya, Japan. Story has it that one morning, he overslept and missed his bus to the tournament and had to hitch a ride with the Chinese national team and met and connected with Zhuang.
Cowan and Zhuang’s interaction led to an invitation for the U.S. team to visit China. At the time, the two countries were just beginning to emerge from a 20-year period of decidedly frosty relations, strict travel bans, and trade restrictions. The highly publicized trip signaled a willingness on both sides to renew relations and launched the term “pingpong diplomacy.”
Kent, who is a senior fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations, believes the photograph is a good reminder that some 50-odd years ago, the economies of the United States and China were not as tightly interwoven as they are today. At the time, the Nixon administration was looking to form closer political and economic ties between the two countries in hopes of reducing chances of future conflict (and to weaken alliances among Communist countries).
The signals coming out of Washington and Beijing are now, of course, much different than they were in the early 1970s. Instead of advocating for better relations, political rhetoric focuses on the need for the U.S. to “decouple” from China. Both Republicans and Democrats have warned that the U.S. economy is too dependent on goods manufactured in China. They see this dependency as a threat to economic strength, American jobs, supply chain resiliency, and national security.
Supply chain professionals, however, know that extricating ourselves from our reliance on Chinese manufacturing is easier said than done. Many pundits push for a “China + 1” strategy, where companies diversify their manufacturing and sourcing options beyond China. But in reality, that “plus one” is often a Chinese company operating in a different country or a non-Chinese manufacturer that is still heavily dependent on material or subcomponents made in China.
This is the problem when supply chain decisions are made on a global scale without input from supply chain professionals. In an article in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Kent argues that, “The discussions on supply chains mainly take place between government officials who typically bring many other competing issues and agendas to the table. Corporate entities—the individuals and companies directly impacted by supply chains—tend to be under-represented in the conversation.”
Kent is a proponent of what he calls “supply chain diplomacy,” where experts from academia and industry from the U.S. and China work collaboratively to create better, more efficient global supply chains. Take, for example, the “Peace Beans” project that Kent is involved with. This project, jointly formed by Zhejiang University and the Bush China Foundation, proposes balancing supply chains by exporting soybeans from Arkansas to tofu producers in China’s Yunnan province, and, in return, importing coffee beans grown in Yunnan to coffee roasters in Arkansas. Kent believes the operation could even use the same transportation equipment.
The benefits of working collaboratively—instead of continuing to build friction in the supply chain through tariffs and adversarial relationships—are numerous, according to Kent and his colleagues. They believe it would be much better if the two major world economies worked together on issues like global inflation, climate change, and artificial intelligence.
And such relations could play a significant role in strengthening world peace, particularly in light of ongoing tensions over Taiwan. Because, as Kent writes, “The 19th-century idea that ‘When goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will’ is as true today as ever. Perhaps more so.”
Hyster-Yale Materials Handling today announced its plans to fulfill the domestic manufacturing requirements of the Build America, Buy America (BABA) Act for certain portions of its lineup of forklift trucks and container handling equipment.
That means the Greenville, North Carolina-based company now plans to expand its existing American manufacturing with a targeted set of high-capacity models, including electric options, that align with the needs of infrastructure projects subject to BABA requirements. The company’s plans include determining the optimal production location in the United States, strategically expanding sourcing agreements to meet local material requirements, and further developing electric power options for high-capacity equipment.
As a part of the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the BABA Act aims to increase the use of American-made materials in federally funded infrastructure projects across the U.S., Hyster-Yale says. It was enacted as part of a broader effort to boost domestic manufacturing and economic growth, and mandates that federal dollars allocated to infrastructure – such as roads, bridges, ports and public transit systems – must prioritize materials produced in the USA, including critical items like steel, iron and various construction materials.
Hyster-Yale’s footprint in the U.S. is spread across 10 locations, including three manufacturing facilities.
“Our leadership is fully invested in meeting the needs of businesses that require BABA-compliant material handling solutions,” Tony Salgado, Hyster-Yale’s chief operating officer, said in a release. “We are working to partner with our key domestic suppliers, as well as identifying how best to leverage our own American manufacturing footprint to deliver a competitive solution for our customers and stakeholders. But beyond mere compliance, and in line with the many areas of our business where we are evolving to better support our customers, our commitment remains steadfast. We are dedicated to delivering industry-leading standards in design, durability and performance — qualities that have become synonymous with our brands worldwide and that our customers have come to rely on and expect.”
In a separate move, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) also gave its approval for the state to advance its Heavy-Duty Omnibus Rule, which is crafted to significantly reduce smog-forming nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from new heavy-duty, diesel-powered trucks.
Both rules are intended to deliver health benefits to California citizens affected by vehicle pollution, according to the environmental group Earthjustice. If the state gets federal approval for the final steps to become law, the rules mean that cars on the road in California will largely be zero-emissions a generation from now in the 2050s, accounting for the average vehicle lifespan of vehicles with internal combustion engine (ICE) power sold before that 2035 date.
“This might read like checking a bureaucratic box, but EPA’s approval is a critical step forward in protecting our lungs from pollution and our wallets from the expenses of combustion fuels,” Paul Cort, director of Earthjustice’s Right To Zero campaign, said in a release. “The gradual shift in car sales to zero-emissions models will cut smog and household costs while growing California’s clean energy workforce. Cutting truck pollution will help clear our skies of smog. EPA should now approve the remaining authorization requests from California to allow the state to clean its air and protect its residents.”
However, the truck drivers' industry group Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) pushed back against the federal decision allowing the Omnibus Low-NOx rule to advance. "The Omnibus Low-NOx waiver for California calls into question the policymaking process under the Biden administration's EPA. Purposefully injecting uncertainty into a $588 billion American industry is bad for our economy and makes no meaningful progress towards purported environmental goals," (OOIDA) President Todd Spencer said in a release. "EPA's credibility outside of radical environmental circles would have been better served by working with regulated industries rather than ramming through last-minute special interest favors. We look forward to working with the Trump administration's EPA in good faith towards achievable environmental outcomes.”
Editor's note:This article was revised on December 18 to add reaction from OOIDA.
A Canadian startup that provides AI-powered logistics solutions has gained $5.5 million in seed funding to support its concept of creating a digital platform for global trade, according to Toronto-based Starboard.
The round was led by Eclipse, with participation from previous backers Garuda Ventures and Everywhere Ventures. The firm says it will use its new backing to expand its engineering team in Toronto and accelerate its AI-driven product development to simplify supply chain complexities.
According to Starboard, the logistics industry is under immense pressure to adapt to the growing complexity of global trade, which has hit recent hurdles such as the strike at U.S. east and gulf coast ports. That situation calls for innovative solutions to streamline operations and reduce costs for operators.
As a potential solution, Starboard offers its flagship product, which it defines as an AI-based transportation management system (TMS) and rate management system that helps mid-sized freight forwarders operate more efficiently and win more business. More broadly, Starboard says it is building the virtual infrastructure for global trade, allowing freight companies to leverage AI and machine learning to optimize operations such as processing shipments in real time, reconciling invoices, and following up on payments.
"This investment is a pivotal step in our mission to unlock the power of AI for our customers," said Sumeet Trehan, Co-Founder and CEO of Starboard. "Global trade has long been plagued by inefficiencies that drive up costs and reduce competitiveness. Our platform is designed to empower SMB freight forwarders—the backbone of more than $20 trillion in global trade and $1 trillion in logistics spend—with the tools they need to thrive in this complex ecosystem."
Global trade will see a moderate rebound in 2025, likely growing by 3.6% in volume terms, helped by companies restocking and households renewing purchases of durable goods while reducing spending on services, according to a forecast from trade credit insurer Allianz Trade.
The end of the year for 2024 will also likely be supported by companies rushing to ship goods in anticipation of the higher tariffs likely to be imposed by the coming Trump administration, and other potential disruptions in the coming quarters, the report said.
However, that tailwind for global trade will likely shift to a headwind once the effects of a renewed but contained trade war are felt from the second half of 2025 and in full in 2026. As a result, Allianz Trade has throttled back its predictions, saying that global trade in volume will grow by 2.8% in 2025 (reduced by 0.2 percentage points vs. its previous forecast) and 2.3% in 2026 (reduced by 0.5 percentage points).
The same logic applies to Allianz Trade’s forecast for export prices in U.S. dollars, which the firm has now revised downward to predict growth reaching 2.3% in 2025 (reduced by 1.7 percentage points) and 4.1% in 2026 (reduced by 0.8 percentage points).
In the meantime, the rush to frontload imports into the U.S. is giving freight carriers an early Christmas present. According to Allianz Trade, data released last week showed Chinese exports rising by a robust 6.7% y/y in November. And imports of some consumer goods that have been threatened with a likely 25% tariff under the new Trump administration have outperformed even more, growing by nearly 20% y/y on average between July and September.