Freight carriers have had a tough road in 2019, experiencing financial pressures and deflationary markets, but the economic cycles are set to turn in 2020, according to an economic forecast from third party logistics provider (3PL) Coyote Logistics LLC.
The change would mean an end to shippers' easy street in 2019, where many enjoyed reduced transportation spend, thanks to high capacity, primary tender acceptance, and service levels. Instead, shippers can now expect to see spot rates begin to inflate again after six consecutive quarters of steep decline, the Chicago-based firm said in its "Coyote Curve Q4 2019 Market Update & Forecast."
If the forecast holds, it would mark the start of the fifth economic cycle in the past decade, following volatile spikes in spot market rates in 2008, 2010, 2014, and 2018, said Coyote, which is a unit of UPS Inc. Each of those peaks swiftly plunged back into sinking rates, roughly parallel to the movement of truckload demand, contract rates, and diesel fuel prices.
"Looking at the previous market cycles, we can clearly see the continuation of a pattern," Coyote said in a release. "As year-over-year rates inflated to historical highs in 2018, carriers bought a record amount of trucks. The oversupply (relative to demand) drove rates down until enough of the excess capacity was pushed back out of the market. Now year-over-year spot rates are trending back towards equilibrium, which will close out the fourth observed market cycle and begin the fifth."
Although the change is expected, it could still cause headaches for players on both sides of the freight equation, Coyote said.
According to Coyotes's model, neither spot nor contract rates will begin to expand until the first quarter of 2020. In the meantime, carriers could face growing concern over financial stability as their operating margins come under further duress. And shippers may start seeing an erosion of primary tender acceptance erosion rates by the second quarter of 2020, bringing them more unplanned exposure to the spot market.
Despite the turmoil, both shippers and carriers can take steps to account for the busy peak holiday season and to prepare for the challenges of 2020. Companies in both roles will benefit by playing the long game—sticking with trusted providers, prioritizing strategic business relationships, and following "shipper of choice" and "carrier of choice" strategies, Coyote said.
David Scheffrahn is the North American vice president of sales at Ocado Intelligent Automation, a part of the technology specialist Ocado Group. Although he began his career focusing on robotic solutions for semiconductor, electronics, and automotive manufacturers, Scheffrahn eventually moved on to the logistics sector, where he worked at Rethink Robotics, Seegrid, Plus One Robotics, and Dexterity before joining Ocado in 2023. He holds a degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Texas.
Q: How would you describe the current state of the automation industry?
A: Today, automation is available for nearly every task in the supply chain. Yet we know from industry analysts that only one-fourth of warehouses are “automated.” [The market research firm] Interact Analysis predicts that 27% of warehouses will be automated by 2027.So many warehouse operators still have the opportunity to embrace and benefit from automation.
Whether companies are just getting started with automation and could benefit from swapping out manual carts for automated ones or are looking for an end-to-end omnichannel fulfillment solution, there will be options available.
Q: You’ve worked in the robotics industry for the past 25 years. What changes have you seen in robotic design and applications during that time?
A: Believe it or not, robots pre-date me! I fell in love with robots right out of college. When I graduated in 1994, I was hired by a local robotics company, and one of my early jobs was to program robots to cut circuit boards into the correct shape to fit into cellphone housings. I was hooked for life. Back then, robots did exactly what you programmed them to do, very precisely, over and over.
In the mid-2000s, an explosion of software and sensor-based technologies started to give robots the capability to operate in environments that are much less structured, such as warehouses and fulfillment centers. Nowadays, robots can perform a wide range of tasks and movements, seemingly on the fly. They can interact with the world around them—and even people—because they can safely operate and adapt to changes in the environment.
Q: How are artificial intelligence and machine learning being applied to robotics?
A: Think of a robotic pick arm. Traditionally, it was trained and tested to always pick the same—or very similar—object or item set. Now, when we apply artificial intelligence, vision systems, and sensors to the same robotic arm, it can teach itself to handle new items without previous training or testing. Vision systems and sensors scan shapes and identify items to direct the arm on how to handle fragile products without damaging them or how to grasp an item with a new and different shape.
Q: Automation used to be a major investment. Has it become any easier for smaller companies to get started with automation?
A: A few years ago, automating was a choice. In 2024, the question isn’t whether you should automate, but rather what’s the right automation solution for your operations. Automated solutions can be big or they can be small, but they should always improve warehouse operations and be “right-sized” for the application.
Autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) are some of the most approachable automated solutions available for 3PLs or small and mid-sized warehouses. AMRs can be deployed quickly one at a time or by the dozen. They can integrate seamlessly with existing warehouse systems and infrastructure, and work safely alongside human pickers. Customers we have worked with report that deploying automated carts based on AMRs has doubled their productivity, improved accuracy by 40%, and reduced employee training time by 80%.
Q: What is the next frontier in robotic design and applications?
A: The use of 3D printing is opening up new opportunities in robotic design. I think we’ll see that technique used more because of the resulting benefits.
Robots made via 3D printing are lighter, which, in turn, means the grids used in automated storage and retrieval systems (AS/RS)—like the Ocado Storage & Retrieval System (OSRS)—can be lighter. Lighter grids are easier and quicker to assemble. But more importantly, in Ocado Intelligent Automation’s solution, they can provide 33% more vertical storage capacity within the OSRS than heavier grids. The more cubic density in an AS/RS, the more warehouse operators can conserve footprint, lower real-estate costs, and scale inventory.
Q: How is Ocado Intelligent Automation expanding its offerings for the supply chain industry?
A: Ocado Group has been developing automated technology for more than 20 years. In 2023, it formed Ocado Intelligent Automation (OIA), the division I work in, to bring automation solutions to intralogistics (supply chain activities that take place within a warehouse) and to sectors beyond online grocery, which is where the company got its start.
Online grocery is one of the most demanding e-commerce environments—with needs that are very analogous to the fulfillment and logistics requirements of the health-care, retail, consumer packaged goods, and third-party logistics sectors. I can’t wait to see how these sectors benefit from OIA technology and robotics in the coming years. It’s going to be impressive!
There’s a photo from 1971 that John Kent, professor of supply chain management at the University of Arkansas, likes to show. It’s of a shaggy-haired 18-year-old named Glenn Cowan grinning at three-time world table tennis champion Zhuang Zedong, while holding a silk tapestry Zhuang had just given him. Cowan was a member of the U.S. table tennis team who participated in the 1971 World Table Tennis Championships in Nagoya, Japan. Story has it that one morning, he overslept and missed his bus to the tournament and had to hitch a ride with the Chinese national team and met and connected with Zhuang.
Cowan and Zhuang’s interaction led to an invitation for the U.S. team to visit China. At the time, the two countries were just beginning to emerge from a 20-year period of decidedly frosty relations, strict travel bans, and trade restrictions. The highly publicized trip signaled a willingness on both sides to renew relations and launched the term “pingpong diplomacy.”
Kent, who is a senior fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations, believes the photograph is a good reminder that some 50-odd years ago, the economies of the United States and China were not as tightly interwoven as they are today. At the time, the Nixon administration was looking to form closer political and economic ties between the two countries in hopes of reducing chances of future conflict (and to weaken alliances among Communist countries).
The signals coming out of Washington and Beijing are now, of course, much different than they were in the early 1970s. Instead of advocating for better relations, political rhetoric focuses on the need for the U.S. to “decouple” from China. Both Republicans and Democrats have warned that the U.S. economy is too dependent on goods manufactured in China. They see this dependency as a threat to economic strength, American jobs, supply chain resiliency, and national security.
Supply chain professionals, however, know that extricating ourselves from our reliance on Chinese manufacturing is easier said than done. Many pundits push for a “China + 1” strategy, where companies diversify their manufacturing and sourcing options beyond China. But in reality, that “plus one” is often a Chinese company operating in a different country or a non-Chinese manufacturer that is still heavily dependent on material or subcomponents made in China.
This is the problem when supply chain decisions are made on a global scale without input from supply chain professionals. In an article in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Kent argues that, “The discussions on supply chains mainly take place between government officials who typically bring many other competing issues and agendas to the table. Corporate entities—the individuals and companies directly impacted by supply chains—tend to be under-represented in the conversation.”
Kent is a proponent of what he calls “supply chain diplomacy,” where experts from academia and industry from the U.S. and China work collaboratively to create better, more efficient global supply chains. Take, for example, the “Peace Beans” project that Kent is involved with. This project, jointly formed by Zhejiang University and the Bush China Foundation, proposes balancing supply chains by exporting soybeans from Arkansas to tofu producers in China’s Yunnan province, and, in return, importing coffee beans grown in Yunnan to coffee roasters in Arkansas. Kent believes the operation could even use the same transportation equipment.
The benefits of working collaboratively—instead of continuing to build friction in the supply chain through tariffs and adversarial relationships—are numerous, according to Kent and his colleagues. They believe it would be much better if the two major world economies worked together on issues like global inflation, climate change, and artificial intelligence.
And such relations could play a significant role in strengthening world peace, particularly in light of ongoing tensions over Taiwan. Because, as Kent writes, “The 19th-century idea that ‘When goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will’ is as true today as ever. Perhaps more so.”
Hyster-Yale Materials Handling today announced its plans to fulfill the domestic manufacturing requirements of the Build America, Buy America (BABA) Act for certain portions of its lineup of forklift trucks and container handling equipment.
That means the Greenville, North Carolina-based company now plans to expand its existing American manufacturing with a targeted set of high-capacity models, including electric options, that align with the needs of infrastructure projects subject to BABA requirements. The company’s plans include determining the optimal production location in the United States, strategically expanding sourcing agreements to meet local material requirements, and further developing electric power options for high-capacity equipment.
As a part of the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the BABA Act aims to increase the use of American-made materials in federally funded infrastructure projects across the U.S., Hyster-Yale says. It was enacted as part of a broader effort to boost domestic manufacturing and economic growth, and mandates that federal dollars allocated to infrastructure – such as roads, bridges, ports and public transit systems – must prioritize materials produced in the USA, including critical items like steel, iron and various construction materials.
Hyster-Yale’s footprint in the U.S. is spread across 10 locations, including three manufacturing facilities.
“Our leadership is fully invested in meeting the needs of businesses that require BABA-compliant material handling solutions,” Tony Salgado, Hyster-Yale’s chief operating officer, said in a release. “We are working to partner with our key domestic suppliers, as well as identifying how best to leverage our own American manufacturing footprint to deliver a competitive solution for our customers and stakeholders. But beyond mere compliance, and in line with the many areas of our business where we are evolving to better support our customers, our commitment remains steadfast. We are dedicated to delivering industry-leading standards in design, durability and performance — qualities that have become synonymous with our brands worldwide and that our customers have come to rely on and expect.”
In a separate move, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) also gave its approval for the state to advance its Heavy-Duty Omnibus Rule, which is crafted to significantly reduce smog-forming nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from new heavy-duty, diesel-powered trucks.
Both rules are intended to deliver health benefits to California citizens affected by vehicle pollution, according to the environmental group Earthjustice. If the state gets federal approval for the final steps to become law, the rules mean that cars on the road in California will largely be zero-emissions a generation from now in the 2050s, accounting for the average vehicle lifespan of vehicles with internal combustion engine (ICE) power sold before that 2035 date.
“This might read like checking a bureaucratic box, but EPA’s approval is a critical step forward in protecting our lungs from pollution and our wallets from the expenses of combustion fuels,” Paul Cort, director of Earthjustice’s Right To Zero campaign, said in a release. “The gradual shift in car sales to zero-emissions models will cut smog and household costs while growing California’s clean energy workforce. Cutting truck pollution will help clear our skies of smog. EPA should now approve the remaining authorization requests from California to allow the state to clean its air and protect its residents.”
However, the truck drivers' industry group Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) pushed back against the federal decision allowing the Omnibus Low-NOx rule to advance. "The Omnibus Low-NOx waiver for California calls into question the policymaking process under the Biden administration's EPA. Purposefully injecting uncertainty into a $588 billion American industry is bad for our economy and makes no meaningful progress towards purported environmental goals," (OOIDA) President Todd Spencer said in a release. "EPA's credibility outside of radical environmental circles would have been better served by working with regulated industries rather than ramming through last-minute special interest favors. We look forward to working with the Trump administration's EPA in good faith towards achievable environmental outcomes.”
Editor's note:This article was revised on December 18 to add reaction from OOIDA.
A Canadian startup that provides AI-powered logistics solutions has gained $5.5 million in seed funding to support its concept of creating a digital platform for global trade, according to Toronto-based Starboard.
The round was led by Eclipse, with participation from previous backers Garuda Ventures and Everywhere Ventures. The firm says it will use its new backing to expand its engineering team in Toronto and accelerate its AI-driven product development to simplify supply chain complexities.
According to Starboard, the logistics industry is under immense pressure to adapt to the growing complexity of global trade, which has hit recent hurdles such as the strike at U.S. east and gulf coast ports. That situation calls for innovative solutions to streamline operations and reduce costs for operators.
As a potential solution, Starboard offers its flagship product, which it defines as an AI-based transportation management system (TMS) and rate management system that helps mid-sized freight forwarders operate more efficiently and win more business. More broadly, Starboard says it is building the virtual infrastructure for global trade, allowing freight companies to leverage AI and machine learning to optimize operations such as processing shipments in real time, reconciling invoices, and following up on payments.
"This investment is a pivotal step in our mission to unlock the power of AI for our customers," said Sumeet Trehan, Co-Founder and CEO of Starboard. "Global trade has long been plagued by inefficiencies that drive up costs and reduce competitiveness. Our platform is designed to empower SMB freight forwarders—the backbone of more than $20 trillion in global trade and $1 trillion in logistics spend—with the tools they need to thrive in this complex ecosystem."