The pragmatic futurist: interview with Shekar Natarajan
Shekar Natarajan not only foresees the future of supply chain management, he is helping to shape it by finding new and revolutionary ways to apply technology to solve business challenges.
Contributing Editor Toby Gooley is a writer and editor specializing in supply chain, logistics, and material handling, and a lecturer at MIT's Center for Transportation & Logistics. She previously was Senior Editor at DC VELOCITY and Editor of DCV's sister publication, CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly. Prior to joining AGiLE Business Media in 2007, she spent 20 years at Logistics Management magazine as Managing Editor and Senior Editor covering international trade and transportation. Prior to that she was an export traffic manager for 10 years. She holds a B.A. in Asian Studies from Cornell University.
If, in the future, a drone is taking inventory in your warehouse, autonomous robots are delivering groceries to your customers' kitchens, or you're delivering products to consumers before they even realize they need them, you might be taking advantage of innovations conceived and developed by Chandrashekar (Shekar) Natarajan and the teams of forward-thinking supply chain and engineering professionals he has led over the past 15 years.
From redesigning material handling systems and adapting autonomous vehicles for logistics applications to improving urban logistics and rethinking supply chain planning methodology (to name just a few examples), Natarajan can cite many achievements in his multifaceted career—and he's not even 40 years old yet.
A protegé of the late Richard Muther, a pioneering industrial engineer known as "the Father of Systematic Planning," Natarajan has been a supply chain executive at some of the best-known companies on the planet, including Coca-Cola Bottling Co., Alliance Rubber Co., PepsiCo, and Anheuser Busch. In addition, he has served in executive leadership roles at The Walt Disney Co., Walmart Inc., and Target Corp. His name is on hundreds of patents, and he's authored or co-authored four books on systematic planning and network design. Perhaps not surprisingly, Natarajan, who was honored as a DC Velocity Rainmaker in 2009, has earned a host of industry accolades, including the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) Supply Chain Innovation Award.
Currently, Natarajan is focusing on finding new ways to apply technology to solve business challenges and revolutionize how supply chains serve consumers. He recently spoke with DC Velocity Contributing Editor Toby Gooley about the future of supply chain technology and how supply chain professionals can prepare themselves and their companies to succeed in a constantly changing world.
Q: You advocate encouraging "productivity of the mind" in supply chain organizations. What do you mean by that, and why is it important?
A: Productivity of thinking is something you can actually measure as the ability to have situational awareness and react very quickly. People often address problems with mundane solutions if they don't have a structured way of thinking about them. If you have a framework for thinking about problems, it drives you to consider both the obvious and the non-obvious. This should increase situational awareness—anticipating what will happen before it happens and pre-positioning responses ahead of time.
Businesses today are evolving rapidly. The primary axes of change include time, networks, networks of networks, relationships with our customers, and the use of data in real time. And all of these are changing asynchronously. To take advantage of these changes, navigate them, and deal with threats, the productivity of our thinking must increase dramatically. We need to incorporate and implement our peoples' ideas and realign ourselves very quickly.
One way to do that is to think through more than one solution to a problem. What was contextually right at one point in time may be completely wrong two years later. If you have "A to B" and "B to A" scenarios, you will be better prepared for change. You will know how to respond because you have already thought through two opposite solutions for that scenario. When you have determined the right approach, you will have strategic options ready to execute. In this way, you can accelerate organizational change.
Another is to have all employees see themselves as a potential provider of personalized service; when that happens, hyperlocal opportunities quickly emerge. For example, an employee might deliver a package for a customer on the way home; another might offer a painting service for a customer who is apprehensive about doing the painting.
Q: When you were in the beverage industry, you were instrumental in improving product handling equipment and processes. Tell us about one solution that continues to have a significant impact.
A: At Coca-Cola Bottling Co., we developed the CooLift beverage-delivery system, which is now a standard throughout the industry. The specially designed carts and pallets make the job of moving beverages from truck to store much quicker, safer, and more efficient. We developed the solution by looking for a merchandising delivery system that reduced the risk of injury and could be used easily by anyone. We analyzed the whole supply chain as a system, deconstructed it, and identified where and how we could improve it.
When I was with PepsiCo, the same "system" approach led to a host of other innovations, including geo-based delivery, automation of the manufacturing-to-merchandising processes, building orders like Lego bricks so they could be merchandised in minutes versus hours, centralizing and automating routing and dispatching, implementing reputational integrity systems to manage bad actors, and virtual control towers to handle the order flow on an exception basis. In this way, every one of our cumbersome processes got a facelift. As a result, we were able to launch several billion-dollar brands and simplify the work of thousands of field associates. I am grateful to the teams that enabled this and the executives who inspired us to think this way.
Q: Your name is on some 300 patents. What are some of the areas you've focused on?
A: My purpose in filing patents has been to support and protect my employer's business with respect to the future of logistics and commerce. Some of the subject areas that emerged in the past few years include autonomous vehicles—air, ground, on the road, and in the home; the last 100 feet into a consumer's home and in the kitchen; cognitive commerce, where data collection and analysis allows me to know you so well that even before you need something I will get it to you, which leapfrogs search altogether; just-in-time replenishment to the home according to values, affinities, and preferences held in the cloud, which obviates the need for ordering or in-home inventory; and hyperspectral imaging, which gauges a food product's internal qualities, and blockchains to ensure food safety and freshness.
Some others include temperature control and Internet of Things (IoT) systems that enable virtual control towers; engaging customers with virtual reality and augmented reality; virtual malls and the monetization of virtual space; moving "digital duplex" conversations with inanimate objects that are coded with information from the point of purchase to engage the consumer at the point of consumption; personalized business-to-person products, services, and communications; emotive and psychological measurement systems that can adapt the selling process to each customer in real time; algorithms that power gamified virtual planning towers; and continuous dynamic reconfiguration of the supply chain so that it is always optimized.
All of these have an underlying systemic implication for the supply chain's architecture and for the dynamic response networks that need to be created to enable them.
Q: How do you go about determining which technologies are important and where to apply them?
A: The jobs that must be done in commerce and logistics don't fundamentally change. Customers will always want to buy clothes, and we will always have to complete a financial transaction and provide the goods, for instance. But evolving technologies can overcome resource constraints, provide step-change cost advantages, and give us new opportunities to delight the customer. So, I look at the jobs we need to do and map to them the relevant technologies to create a framework of opportunities. As an example, if a package of pretzels can "talk" digitally to the customer and engage in the process of cooking, suddenly the concept of food logistics and brand packaging looks very different. New value gets unlocked for customers and brand companies.
Here's another example: When they are choosing clothes, customers are regularly at the mercy of the sizes and colors that are already available. The technology exists that would allow a customer to choose the style, fabric, size, color, and other options for the garment to be made to order and shipped out overnight. Then, the customer could have exactly what he or she wanted each time without the risk of the size or preferred color being out of stock.
Q: Any predictions about what will be the hot areas for supply chain in the next five to 10 years?
A: Yes, I think the following areas will be most important:
The Internet of Things will enable full visibility of the supply chain from factory to customer.
Blockchains will enable track and trace and will limit the influence of bad actors.
Logistics services will become available as Logistics as a Service (LaaS), where a third party provides platform-based turnkey solutions for end-to-end processes.
"Frenemy networks" will include competitors in a service offering.
Every supply chain job will change due to digitization, through such means as apps, advanced analytics, and cloud computing power.
"Networks of networks" will develop through the constant realignment of networks with new partners to enable value delivery.
We will see highly personalized business-to-individual (B2i) communications and commerce.
Robots and autonomous vehicles will play an increasingly significant role.
Q: Why is know-how about emerging sciences critical to businesses in general and supply chain organizations in particular? How will the roles of supply chain professionals evolve?
A: I firmly believe that a company must grow as fast as its market to survive in the long term. Since the rate of change in the markets is going up continuously, innovation and growth must be everyone's job, not just that of a select few.
Let me address this using an example. Today, a transportation leader is rewarded for securing the right contractual rates, managing drivers for safety and compliance, and executing on time and within budget. In a world of autonomous vehicles, there is no driver to manage, and the job of the transport leader is to ensure and build the right algorithms, manage the integrity of assets, and ensure good customer interactions. Because so much must change, being ahead of it is critical.
My experience has made me a firm believer in the ability of logistics to drive revenue and create new business models. Logistics can drive customer intimacy, operational excellence, and product leadership. Autonomous vehicles, for instance, will improve efficiency, but there are numerous ways they can be a source of revenue. Those that carry passengers can be mobile kiosks, making sales to passengers. And while they are carrying passengers, the trunks can be carrying packages for delivery.
Supply chain leaders need to be alert to these opportunities and be able to capitalize upon them. To do that, they must think as businesspeople—more like a general manager and less like a transaction-focused logistics manager.
Progress in generative AI (GenAI) is poised to impact business procurement processes through advancements in three areas—agentic reasoning, multimodality, and AI agents—according to Gartner Inc.
Those functions will redefine how procurement operates and significantly impact the agendas of chief procurement officers (CPOs). And 72% of procurement leaders are already prioritizing the integration of GenAI into their strategies, thus highlighting the recognition of its potential to drive significant improvements in efficiency and effectiveness, Gartner found in a survey conducted in July, 2024, with 258 global respondents.
Gartner defined the new functions as follows:
Agentic reasoning in GenAI allows for advanced decision-making processes that mimic human-like cognition. This capability will enable procurement functions to leverage GenAI to analyze complex scenarios and make informed decisions with greater accuracy and speed.
Multimodality refers to the ability of GenAI to process and integrate multiple forms of data, such as text, images, and audio. This will make GenAI more intuitively consumable to users and enhance procurement's ability to gather and analyze diverse information sources, leading to more comprehensive insights and better-informed strategies.
AI agents are autonomous systems that can perform tasks and make decisions on behalf of human operators. In procurement, these agents will automate procurement tasks and activities, freeing up human resources to focus on strategic initiatives, complex problem-solving and edge cases.
As CPOs look to maximize the value of GenAI in procurement, the study recommended three starting points: double down on data governance, develop and incorporate privacy standards into contracts, and increase procurement thresholds.
“These advancements will usher procurement into an era where the distance between ideas, insights, and actions will shorten rapidly,” Ryan Polk, senior director analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Procurement leaders who build their foundation now through a focus on data quality, privacy and risk management have the potential to reap new levels of productivity and strategic value from the technology."
Businesses are cautiously optimistic as peak holiday shipping season draws near, with many anticipating year-over-year sales increases as they continue to battle challenging supply chain conditions.
That’s according to the DHL 2024 Peak Season Shipping Survey, released today by express shipping service provider DHL Express U.S. The company surveyed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to gauge their holiday business outlook compared to last year and found that a mix of optimism and “strategic caution” prevail ahead of this year’s peak.
Nearly half (48%) of the SMEs surveyed said they expect higher holiday sales compared to 2023, while 44% said they expect sales to remain on par with last year, and just 8% said they foresee a decline. Respondents said the main challenges to hitting those goals are supply chain problems (35%), inflation and fluctuating consumer demand (34%), staffing (16%), and inventory challenges (14%).
But respondents said they have strategies in place to tackle those issues. Many said they began preparing for holiday season earlier this year—with 45% saying they started planning in Q2 or earlier, up from 39% last year. Other strategies include expanding into international markets (35%) and leveraging holiday discounts (32%).
Sixty percent of respondents said they will prioritize personalized customer service as a way to enhance customer interactions and loyalty this year. Still others said they will invest in enhanced web and mobile experiences (23%) and eco-friendly practices (13%) to draw customers this holiday season.
That challenge is one of the reasons that fewer shoppers overall are satisfied with their shopping experiences lately, Lincolnshire, Illinois-based Zebra said in its “17th Annual Global Shopper Study.”th Annual Global Shopper Study.” While 85% of shoppers last year were satisfied with both the in-store and online experiences, only 81% in 2024 are satisfied with the in-store experience and just 79% with online shopping.
In response, most retailers (78%) say they are investing in technology tools that can help both frontline workers and those watching operations from behind the scenes to minimize theft and loss, Zebra said.
Just 38% of retailers currently use AI-based prescriptive analytics for loss prevention, but a much larger 50% say they plan to use it in the next 1-3 years. That was followed by self-checkout cameras and sensors (45%), computer vision (46%), and RFID tags and readers (42%) that are planned for use within the next three years, specifically for loss prevention.
Those strategies could help improve the brick and mortar shopping experience, since 78% of shoppers say it’s annoying when products are locked up or secured within cases. Adding to that frustration is that it’s hard to find an associate while shopping in stores these days, according to 70% of consumers. In response, some just walk out; one in five shoppers has left a store without getting what they needed because a retail associate wasn’t available to help, an increase over the past two years.
The survey also identified additional frustrations faced by retailers and associates:
challenges with offering easy options for click-and-collect or returns, despite high shopper demand for them
the struggle to confirm current inventory and pricing
lingering labor shortages and increasing loss incidents, even as shoppers return to stores
“Many retailers are laying the groundwork to build a modern store experience,” Matt Guiste, Global Retail Technology Strategist, Zebra Technologies, said in a release. “They are investing in mobile and intelligent automation technologies to help inform operational decisions and enable associates to do the things that keep shoppers happy.”
The survey was administered online by Azure Knowledge Corporation and included 4,200 adult shoppers (age 18+), decision-makers, and associates, who replied to questions about the topics of shopper experience, device and technology usage, and delivery and fulfillment in store and online.
An eight-year veteran of the Georgia company, Hakala will begin his new role on January 1, when the current CEO, Tero Peltomäki, will retire after a long and noteworthy career, continuing as a member of the board of directors, Cimcorp said.
According to Hakala, automation is an inevitable course in Cimcorp’s core sectors, and the company’s end-to-end capabilities will be crucial for clients’ success. In the past, both the tire and grocery retail industries have automated individual machines and parts of their operations. In recent years, automation has spread throughout the facilities, as companies want to be able to see their entire operation with one look, utilize analytics, optimize processes, and lead with data.
“Cimcorp has always grown by starting small in the new business segments. We’ve created one solution first, and as we’ve gained more knowledge of our clients’ challenges, we have been able to expand,” Hakala said in a release. “In every phase, we aim to bring our experience to the table and even challenge the client’s initial perspective. We are interested in what our client does and how it could be done better and more efficiently.”
Although many shoppers will
return to physical stores this holiday season, online shopping remains a driving force behind peak-season shipping challenges, especially when it comes to the last mile. Consumers still want fast, free shipping if they can get it—without any delays or disruptions to their holiday deliveries.
One disruptor that gets a lot of headlines this time of year is package theft—committed by so-called “porch pirates.” These are thieves who snatch parcels from front stairs, side porches, and driveways in neighborhoods across the country. The problem adds up to billions of dollars in stolen merchandise each year—not to mention headaches for shippers, parcel delivery companies, and, of course, consumers.
Given the scope of the problem, it’s no wonder online shoppers are worried about it—especially during holiday season. In its annual report on package theft trends, released in October, the
security-focused research and product review firm Security.org found that:
17% of Americans had a package stolen in the past three months, with the typical stolen parcel worth about $50. Some 44% said they’d had a package taken at some point in their life.
Package thieves poached more than $8 billion in merchandise over the past year.
18% of adults said they’d had a package stolen that contained a gift for someone else.
Ahead of the holiday season, 88% of adults said they were worried about theft of online purchases, with more than a quarter saying they were “extremely” or “very” concerned.
But it doesn’t have to be that way. There are some low-tech steps consumers can take to help guard against porch piracy along with some high-tech logistics-focused innovations in the pipeline that can protect deliveries in the last mile. First, some common-sense advice on avoiding package theft from the Security.org research:
Install a doorbell camera, which is a relatively low-cost deterrent.
Bring packages inside promptly or arrange to have them delivered to a secure location if no one will be at home.
Consider using click-and-collect options when possible.
If the retailer allows you to specify delivery-time windows, consider doing so to avoid having packages sit outside for extended periods.
These steps may sound basic, but they are by no means a given: Fewer than half of Americans consider the timing of deliveries, less than a third have a doorbell camera, and nearly one-fifth take no precautions to prevent package theft, according to the research.
Tech vendors are stepping up to help. One example is
Arrive AI, which develops smart mailboxes for last-mile delivery and pickup. The company says its Mailbox-as-a-Service (MaaS) platform will revolutionize the last mile by building a network of parcel-storage boxes that can be accessed by people, drones, or robots. In a nutshell: Packages are placed into a weatherproof box via drone, robot, driverless carrier, or traditional delivery method—and no one other than the rightful owner can access it.
Although the platform is still in development, the company already offers solutions for business clients looking to secure high-value deliveries and sensitive shipments. The health-care industry is one example: Arrive AI offers secure drone delivery of medical supplies, prescriptions, lab samples, and the like to hospitals and other health-care facilities. The platform provides real-time tracking, chain-of-custody controls, and theft-prevention features. Arrive is conducting short-term deployments between logistics companies and health-care partners now, according to a company spokesperson.
The MaaS solution has a pretty high cool factor. And the common-sense best practices just seem like solid advice. Maybe combining both is the key to a more secure last mile—during peak shipping season and throughout the year as well.