The U.S. industrial property sector has firmly swung to a landlord's market. That means higher rents, fewer concessions, and tenants who'll take it and like it.
Mark Solomon joined DC VELOCITY as senior editor in August 2008, and was promoted to his current position on January 1, 2015. He has spent more than 30 years in the transportation, logistics and supply chain management fields as a journalist and public relations professional. From 1989 to 1994, he worked in Washington as a reporter for the Journal of Commerce, covering the aviation and trucking industries, the Department of Transportation, Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court. Prior to that, he worked for Traffic World for seven years in a similar role. From 1994 to 2008, Mr. Solomon ran Media-Based Solutions, a public relations firm based in Atlanta. He graduated in 1978 with a B.A. in journalism from The American University in Washington, D.C.
If current conditions in the U.S. industrial property market were a Bruce Springsteen song, they'd be called "Glory Days" after his 1984 classic hit. If the history of the market were a Springsteen song, it would be a lyric from his 2012 song "Wrecking Ball" that reads: "... And hard times come, and hard times go ..."
Few American industries have rebounded as resoundingly from the recent financial crisis and subsequent recession. From 2007 through 2010, capital dried up, demand plummeted, speculative development vanished, and deliveries headed toward 50-year lows. Millions of square feet sat vacant. The turnaround, when it commenced in 2011, was somewhat halting. But it picked up speed in 2012, coinciding with demand for large-scale buildings to support the burgeoning e-commerce trade, and the market has not looked back.
"Net absorption," which compares occupancy rates at the beginning and end of each reporting period—factoring in vacancies and new construction during the period—has been in positive territory for 20 consecutive quarters as of this writing. The nationwide occupancy rate, which ended last year at about 6.9 percent, could fall during 2015 to near 6 percent, which would be a multiyear low. JLL Inc. (formerly Jones Lang LaSalle), a real estate and logistics services firm, said that 15 of the top 50 U.S. markets it regularly surveys are already reporting vacancy rates below 6 percent.
Vacancy rates in California's Inland Empire, the vast warehousing and distribution center complex 120 miles east of Los Angeles, sit at 5.3 percent, compared with close to 20 percent at the worst of the downturn, according to JLL. The rate in the high-demand, capacity-constrained Southern California port area is hovering around 2 percent. Vacancies in Pennsylvania's Lehigh Valley, the gateway for goods moving into the Northeast and swaths of the Mid-Atlantic, are at 3 percent, an all-time low, according to CBRE Brokerage Services, a commercial brokerage firm. About 90 miles to the south in Carlisle, Pa., a regional node serving the Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas, vacancy rates are at 5.8 percent, according to CBRE.
In 2014, the Eastern and Central Pennsylvania markets—which total 216 million square feet and where goods can reach 40 percent of the U.S. population in one day's truck trip—reported positive net absorption of 17 million square feet. Vincent Ranalli, a CBRE senior vice president based in Wayne, Pa., outside of Philadelphia, called it the strongest one-year absorption rate he's seen in his 10 years there.
A CHANGING MARKET
Like all real estate, industrial property has its cycles. The two recessions of the past 15 years took their toll on the sector. But the current up cycle seems different from the others, experts said. For one thing, it is the first where e-commerce is playing a significant role in renting and leasing decisions. Foreign capital is also more visible; in April, a joint venture between the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund and San Francisco-based developer Prologis paid nearly $6 billion for the assets of Rosemont, Ill.-based KTR Capital Partners, which controls 322 U.S. properties with 60 million square feet. In December, Singapore's sovereign wealth fund paid $8.1 billion to buy Chicago-based developer Indcor Properties Inc., which had 117 million square feet under management.
Goosing the cycle is a change in the leasing behavior of "mom and pop"-type tenants. Until recently, many cautious smaller occupiers have taken on short-term extensions to maintain flexibility, according to Jack Rosenberg, national director, logistics and transportation, for Seattle-based Collier's International, which manages about 1.7 billion square feet worldwide. Now, emboldened by the brighter overall outlook, they are committing to longer-term leases, Rosenberg said.
To no one's surprise given the shift in fortunes, landlords' asking rents are on the rise. Rent increases are in the 3- to 5-percent range, though specific increases depend on the desirability of the property and the market. JLL, which regularly surveys conditions in its top 50 U.S. markets, said its data at the end of the first quarter showed that rents were rising in each market.
An industrial parcel that might have fetched $2.70 per square foot in 2010 (net of taxes and other expenses) can command around $3.95 today, according to estimates by Collier's. In markets like Southern California and the Dallas/Fort Worth "Metroplex," rents can run as high as $5 per square foot. "There is real rent growth, and it's as high as it's ever been," said Rosenberg.
FEWER GIVEAWAYS
Landlords are not only minting more coin; they're also making fewer concessions and are stingier with incentives than they've been in years. In the bad old days, it would be commonplace for landlords to concede six months to up to one year of free rent just to generate occupancy. Tenants could also get thousands of dollars worth of improvements as sweeteners. Today, tenants will be fortunate to win two months of free rent. And improvements that might have been equal to $10 a square foot several years ago have been reduced to $3 to $4 per square foot today. Craig Meyer, president of JLL's U.S. real estate business, said that incentives are down between 60 and 70 percent since the market has improved. In a growing number of cases, tenants are being asked to pick up the tab for specialized improvements to their space, according to Ranalli of CBRE.
Ranalli said most tenants that are doing well enough to make major investments in industrial space aren't balking at the higher rents or the loss in negotiating leverage. In particular, e-tailers experiencing rapid growth will pay up for a modern well-equipped building to support their fulfillment operations, he said. "Tenants have accepted this, so you pay the price to get the deal done," he said.
That doesn't mean tenants are jumping at the first property they see. A multiyear commitment, combined with the expense of leasing a 500,000 to 1 million-square-foot building that may cost between $50 million and $100 million to construct, is cause for tenant selectivity. Increasingly, cream-of-the-crop "Class A" buildings are being built with 36 feet of "clear ceiling" height, up from 32 feet, in order to accommodate e-commerce companies that want multistory mezzanines and higher picking modules, according to Ranalli. Top properties are also coming equipped with deeper truck courts for better vehicle maneuverability as well as more trailer positions and additional car parking to accommodate the influx of workers and equipment, he said.
Lease durations have also been lengthened as landlords look to lock in better contract terms. Ranalli said landlords increasingly insist on a minimum five-year commitment. At the depths of the recession, the best landlords could hope for were two- to three-year terms, he said. Ironically, longer lease durations may be a better deal for tenants occupying custom-designed properties if they are putting up stakes in markets with significant construction activity that might lead to oversupply, according to Jim Clewlow, chief investment officer of CenterPoint Properties, a firm that specializes in developing transportation and logistics projects.
The roster of industrial property executives is stocked with folks who've been in the business for decades and have seen their share of downdrafts. Another down cycle awaits, but it's unlikely to occur before late 2016 or 2017. Spec development, which has remained relatively subdued even as the overall market has strengthened, is starting to accelerate. The Inland Empire has 20 million square feet of property going up. About 8.4 million square feet are under construction in Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The Pennsylvania properties are expected to be delivered by the end of this year or early next.
At some point, demand will reach a crescendo, developers will scramble like the dickens to loosen what's been a tight supply market, the U.S. economy may slow, and the flood of space will then put tenants back in the driver's seat. JLL's "property clock," which analyzes its 50 key markets at their various cycles, shows that markets like Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, and California's Silicon Valley are peaking. However, those markets are in the early stages of the cycle. Until the clock runs out on those and other big markets, landlords will remain firmly behind the wheel.
Most of the apparel sold in North America is manufactured in Asia, meaning the finished goods travel long distances to reach end markets, with all the associated greenhouse gas emissions. On top of that, apparel manufacturing itself requires a significant amount of energy, water, and raw materials like cotton. Overall, the production of apparel is responsible for about 2% of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions, according to a report titled
Taking Stock of Progress Against the Roadmap to Net Zeroby the Apparel Impact Institute. Founded in 2017, the Apparel Impact Institute is an organization dedicated to identifying, funding, and then scaling solutions aimed at reducing the carbon emissions and other environmental impacts of the apparel and textile industries.
The author of this annual study is researcher and consultant Michael Sadowski. He wrote the first report in 2021 as well as the latest edition, which was released earlier this year. Sadowski, who is also executive director of the environmental nonprofit
The Circulate Initiative, recently joined DC Velocity Group Editorial Director David Maloney on an episode of the “Logistics Matters” podcast to discuss the key findings of the research, what companies are doing to reduce emissions, and the progress they’ve made since the first report was issued.
A: While companies in the apparel industry can set their own sustainability targets, we realized there was a need to give them a blueprint for actually reducing emissions. And so, we produced the first report back in 2021, where we laid out the emissions from the sector, based on the best estimates [we could make using] data from various sources. It gives companies and the sector a blueprint for what we collectively need to do to drive toward the ambitious reduction [target] of staying within a 1.5 degrees Celsius pathway. That was the first report, and then we committed to refresh the analysis on an annual basis. The second report was published last year, and the third report came out in May of this year.
Q: What were some of the key findings of your research?
A: We found that about half of the emissions in the sector come from Tier Two, which is essentially textile production. That includes the knitting, weaving, dyeing, and finishing of fabric, which together account for over half of the total emissions. That was a really important finding, and it allows us to focus our attention on the interventions that can drive those emissions down.
Raw material production accounts for another quarter of emissions. That includes cotton farming, extracting gas and oil from the ground to make synthetics, and things like that. So we now have a really keen understanding of the source of our industry’s emissions.
Q: Your report mentions that the apparel industry is responsible for about 2% of global emissions. Is that an accurate statistic?
A: That’s our best estimate of the total emissions [generated by] the apparel sector. Some other reports on the industry have apparel at up to 8% of global emissions. And there is a commonly misquoted number in the media that it’s 10%. From my perspective, I think the best estimate is somewhere under 2%.
We know that globally, humankind needs to reduce emissions by roughly half by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050 to hit international goals. [Reaching that target will require the involvement of] every facet of the global economy and every aspect of the apparel sector—transportation, material production, manufacturing, cotton farming. Through our work and that of others, I think the apparel sector understands what has to happen. We have highlighted examples of how companies are taking action to reduce emissions in the roadmap reports.
Q: What are some of those actions the industry can take to reduce emissions?
A: I think one of the positive developments since we wrote the first report is that we’re seeing companies really focus on the most impactful areas. We see companies diving deep on thermal energy, for example. With respect to Tier Two, we [focus] a lot of attention on things like ocean freight versus air. There’s a rule of thumb I’ve heard that indicates air freight is about 10 times the cost [of ocean] and also produces 10 times more greenhouse gas emissions.
There is money available to invest in sustainability efforts. It’s really exciting to see the funding that’s coming through for AI [artificial intelligence] and to see that individual companies, such as H&M and Lululemon, are investing in real solutions in their supply chains. I think a lot of concrete actions are being taken.
And yet we know that reducing emissions by half on an absolute basis by 2030 is a monumental undertaking. So I don’t want to be overly optimistic, because I think we have a lot of work to do. But I do think we’ve got some amazing progress happening.
Q: You mentioned several companies that are starting to address their emissions. Is that a result of their being more aware of the emissions they generate? Have you seen progress made since the first report came out in 2021?
A: Yes. When we published the first roadmap back in 2021, our statistics showed that only about 12 companies had met the criteria [for setting] science-based targets. In 2024, the number of apparel, textile, and footwear companies that have set targets or have commitments to set targets is close to 500. It’s an enormous increase. I think they see the urgency more than other sectors do.
We have companies that have been working at sustainability for quite a long time. I think the apparel sector has developed a keen understanding of the impacts of climate change. You can see the impacts of flooding, drought, heat, and other things happening in places like Bangladesh and Pakistan and India. If you’re a brand or a manufacturer and you have operations and supply chains in these places, I think you understand what the future will look like if we don’t significantly reduce emissions.
Q: There are different categories of emission levels, depending on the role within the supply chain. Scope 1 are “direct” emissions under the reporting company’s control. For apparel, this might be the production of raw materials or the manufacturing of the finished product. Scope 2 covers “indirect” emissions from purchased energy, such as electricity used in these processes. Scope 3 emissions are harder to track, as they include emissions from supply chain partners both upstream and downstream.
Now companies are finding there are legislative efforts around the world that could soon require them to track and report on all these emissions, including emissions produced by their partners’ supply chains. Does this mean that companies now need to be more aware of not only what greenhouse gas emissions they produce, but also what their partners produce?
A: That’s right. Just to put this into context, if you’re a brand like an Adidas or a Gap, you still have to consider the Scope 3 emissions. In particular, there are the so-called “purchased goods and services,” which refers to all of the embedded emissions in your products, from farming cotton to knitting yarn to making fabric. Those “purchased goods and services” generally account for well above 80% of the total emissions associated with a product. It’s by far the most significant portion of your emissions.
Leading companies have begun measuring and taking action on Scope 3 emissions because of regulatory developments in Europe and, to some extent now, in California. I do think this is just a further tailwind for the work that the industry is doing.
I also think it will definitely ratchet up the quality requirements of Scope 3 data, which is not yet where we’d all like it to be. Companies are working to improve that data, but I think the regulatory push will make the quality side increasingly important.
Q: Overall, do you think the work being done by the Apparel Impact Institute will help reduce greenhouse gas emissions within the industry?
A: When we started this back in 2020, we were at a place where companies were setting targets and knew their intended destination, but what they needed was a blueprint for how to get there. And so, the roadmap [provided] this blueprint and identified six key things that the sector needed to do—from using more sustainable materials to deploying renewable electricity in the supply chain.
Decarbonizing any sector, whether it’s transportation, chemicals, or automotive, requires investment. The Apparel Impact Institute is bringing collective investment, which is so critical. I’m really optimistic about what they’re doing. They have taken a data-driven, evidence-based approach, so they know where the emissions are and they know what the needed interventions are. And they’ve got the industry behind them in doing that.
The global air cargo market’s hot summer of double-digit demand growth continued in August with average spot rates showing their largest year-on-year jump with a 24% increase, according to the latest weekly analysis by Xeneta.
Xeneta cited two reasons to explain the increase. First, Global average air cargo spot rates reached $2.68 per kg in August due to continuing supply and demand imbalance. That came as August's global cargo supply grew at its slowest ratio in 2024 to-date at 2% year-on-year, while global cargo demand continued its double-digit growth, rising +11%.
The second reason for higher rates was an ocean-to-air shift in freight volumes due to Red Sea disruptions and e-commerce demand.
Those factors could soon be amplified as e-commerce shows continued strong growth approaching the hotly anticipated winter peak season. E-commerce and low-value goods exports from China in the first seven months of 2024 increased 30% year-on-year, including shipments to Europe and the US rising 38% and 30% growth respectively, Xeneta said.
“Typically, air cargo market performance in August tends to follow the July trend. But another month of double-digit demand growth and the strongest rate growths of the year means there was definitely no summer slack season in 2024,” Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, said in a release.
“Rates we saw bottoming out in late July started picking up again in mid-August. This is too short a period to call a season. This has been a busy summer, and now we’re at the threshold of Q4, it will be interesting to see what will happen and if all the anticipation of a red-hot peak season materializes,” van de Wouw said.
The report cites data showing that there are approximately 1.7 million workers missing from the post-pandemic workforce and that 38% of small firms are unable to fill open positions. At the same time, the “skills gap” in the workforce is accelerating as automation and AI create significant shifts in how work is performed.
That information comes from the “2024 Labor Day Report” released by Littler’s Workplace Policy Institute (WPI), the firm’s government relations and public policy arm.
“We continue to see a labor shortage and an urgent need to upskill the current workforce to adapt to the new world of work,” said Michael Lotito, Littler shareholder and co-chair of WPI. “As corporate executives and business leaders look to the future, they are focused on realizing the many benefits of AI to streamline operations and guide strategic decision-making, while cultivating a talent pipeline that can support this growth.”
But while the need is clear, solutions may be complicated by public policy changes such as the upcoming U.S. general election and the proliferation of employment-related legislation at the state and local levels amid Congressional gridlock.
“We are heading into a contentious election that has already proven to be unpredictable and is poised to create even more uncertainty for employers, no matter the outcome,” Shannon Meade, WPI’s executive director, said in a release. “At the same time, the growing patchwork of state and local requirements across the U.S. is exacerbating compliance challenges for companies. That, coupled with looming changes following several Supreme Court decisions that have the potential to upend rulemaking, gives C-suite executives much to contend with in planning their workforce-related strategies.”
Stax Engineering, the venture-backed startup that provides smokestack emissions reduction services for maritime ships, will service all vessels from Toyota Motor North America Inc. visiting the Toyota Berth at the Port of Long Beach, according to a new five-year deal announced today.
Beginning in 2025 to coincide with new California Air Resources Board (CARB) standards, STAX will become the first and only emissions control provider to service roll-on/roll-off (ro-ros) vessels in the state of California, the company said.
Stax has rapidly grown since its launch in the first quarter of this year, supported in part by a $40 million funding round from investors, announced in July. It now holds exclusive service agreements at California ports including Los Angeles, Long Beach, Hueneme, Benicia, Richmond, and Oakland. The firm has also partnered with individual companies like NYK Line, Hyundai GLOVIS, Equilon Enterprises LLC d/b/a Shell Oil Products US (Shell), and now Toyota.
Stax says it offers an alternative to shore power with land- and barge-based, mobile emissions capture and control technology for shipping terminal and fleet operators without the need for retrofits.
In the case of this latest deal, the Toyota Long Beach Vehicle Distribution Center imports about 200,000 vehicles each year on ro-ro vessels. Stax will keep those ships green with its flexible exhaust capture system, which attaches to all vessel classes without modification to remove 99% of emitted particulate matter (PM) and 95% of emitted oxides of nitrogen (NOx). Over the lifetime of this new agreement with Toyota, Stax estimated the service will account for approximately 3,700 hours and more than 47 tons of emissions controlled.
“We set out to provide an emissions capture and control solution that was reliable, easily accessible, and cost-effective. As we begin to service Toyota, we’re confident that we can meet the needs of the full breadth of the maritime industry, furthering our impact on the local air quality, public health, and environment,” Mike Walker, CEO of Stax, said in a release. “Continuing to establish strong partnerships will help build momentum for and trust in our technology as we expand beyond the state of California.”
That result showed that driver wages across the industry continue to increase post-pandemic, despite a challenging freight market for motor carriers. The data comes from ATA’s “Driver Compensation Study,” which asked 120 fleets, more than 150,000 employee drivers, and 14,000 independent contractors about their wage and benefit information.
Drilling into specific categories, linehaul less-than-truckload (LTL) drivers earned a median annual amount of $94,525 in 2023, while local LTL drivers earned a median of $80,680. The median annual compensation for drivers at private carriers has risen 12% since 2021, reaching $95,114 in 2023. And leased-on independent contractors for truckload carriers were paid an annual median amount of $186,016 in 2023.
The results also showed how the demographics of the industry are changing, as carriers offered smaller referral and fewer sign-on bonuses for new drivers in 2023 compared to 2021 but more frequently offered tenure bonuses to their current drivers and with a greater median value.
"While our last study, conducted in 2021, illustrated how drivers benefitted from the strongest freight environment in a generation, this latest report shows professional drivers' earnings are still rising—even in a weaker freight economy," ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said in a release. "By offering greater tenure bonuses to their current driver force, many fleets appear to be shifting their workforce priorities from recruitment to retention."