The Pentagon is in the midst of the largest reverse logistics operation in history—the return of enormous amounts of military equipment and goods from Afghanistan.
Steve Geary is adjunct faculty at the University of Tennessee's Haaslam College of Business and is a lecturer at The Gordon Institute at Tufts University. He is the President of the Supply Chain Visions family of companies, consultancies that work across the government sector. Steve is a contributing editor at DC Velocity, and editor-at-large for CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly.
At the start of the Cold War in 1948, the Soviet Union blocked access to rail, road, and canal traffic to the sectors of Berlin controlled by the Allies. In response, the air forces of the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa began delivering supplies to the city by air. After nearly a year and 200,000 flights, the Soviets gave up. The Berlin airlift had worked. It remains one of the most notable achievements of U.S. policy in that period—a triumph made possible by an enormous and well-coordinated logistics operation.
Now, at the end of a very different war, the U.S. and its allies are undertaking an even greater logistics effort. After more than a decade of moving goods and people into Afghanistan, the military has only a few months to move things out to meet a year-end deadline set by the president. When the operation is complete, it will have been the single largest logistics effort, military or otherwise, in history. According to Alan Estevez, the most senior logistics official at the Pentagon, "Afghanistan is a logistician's nightmare." But in an interview with Bloomberg, he also expressed excitement about the challenge, calling it a dream.
As for the scope of the endeavor, last April, The Economist estimated the military had to move out "as many as 28,000 vehicles and 40,000 shipping containers of equipment. In military jargon, the whole action is 'the retrograde.' Shifting that much kit, with an estimated value of $30 billion, is daunting enough. The retrograde itself will cost as much as $6 billion and involve about 29,000 personnel, for the American part alone ..."
THE NETWORK
Accomplishing a project of that scale requires more than a little innovation. To pull it off, the military has assembled the most complex logistics network the world has ever seen. And as formidable as its lift capability may be, the days when the U.S. military had enough equipment to make it happen by itself are long gone. The plan is to make heavy use of commercial carriers.
Unfortunately, the effort does have one thing in common with the situation in Berlin—there are no good surface movement alternatives. Military logisticians have to launch the retrograde from a starting point within a landlocked country bordered by Iran on one side, Pakistan on another, and the Central Asian Republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) on a third.
Relations with Pakistan have settled down enough to allow surface movement to Karachi. Still, the government of Pakistan can shut down that route at any time, as it has in the past, so there is risk.
Even if the government of Pakistan doesn't interfere on this leg, the Taliban often does.
To create a safety net, another route has been developed. A newly built 50-mile-long railroad spur drops down into the country from Uzbekistan in the north, increasing the capacity of what used to be just a truck route. But much of the freight moving north through the Central Asian Republics ends up crossing Russia en route to the Latvian port of Riga.
Lately, things have been a little tense with Russia.
So, air freight figures heavily into the exit. Bagram Airfield has been improved and improved again, and it is now the busiest flight line operated by the Department of Defense anywhere in the world. One of the Bagram runways is over two miles long, able to land any aircraft in existence.
THE MULTIMODAL PROGRAM
The runway is the anchor for an extraordinary multimodal program, operating under the understated handle of the "Multimodal Contract." The military couldn't rely on the surface lanes to get everything out and it couldn't afford to fly everything all the way home, so it has put together a hybrid multimodal program that includes air, sea, rail, and truck.
In all, five teams are participating in the program. Among them is a team led by Liberty Global Logistics, a U.S.-based multimodal transportation and logistics company that specializes in heavy equipment and rolling stock, with its partner, UPS's global government operations group, which provides logistics and technology services to government customers.
The multimodal program includes a surface leg to get goods to an aerial hub in Afghanistan, most often Bagram, then an air leg to get them out of Afghanistan to a trans-shipment point, usually Dubai. From there, the move includes a journey by sea back to the United States, where the cargo may move by rail, but more often truck, and sometimes both, to the final destination. The only mode missing is a pipeline.
Army Colonel Glenn Baca, chief of operations for military surface deployment and distribution command, says the multimodal program "allows us to meet the president's timetable." He adds that considering that we're "in the middle of a conflict in a landlocked country on the other side of the world, it's been a big success."
The thousand-mile hop to Dubai enables the military to bypass the risks associated with surface movement out of Afghanistan. The port in Karachi wasn't designed for the volume and type of cargo it has been handling for more than a decade, and therefore, is extremely inefficient. The flight also dodges the border crossings, where hundreds of trucks can be backed up in either direction. It avoids the risk of ambush or attack. And, of course, the uncertainty of Russia is not a factor when you are airborne and headed southeast.
As for how much cargo is being flown out, Lloyd Knight, director of UPS's global government operations group, reports that the volumes in the program change frequently. "At times, we'll handle several dozen aircraft in a two-week period, and other times, we'll manage just one or two flights per month." These are not small aircraft. They're often 747s, or IL-76 and AN-124 aircraft that can handle oversized loads that won't fit in a 747.
"Since the beginning of the program, we have moved more than 150 million pounds," Knight continues. "If it fits on an aircraft, it's moved in the program." Since the multimodal contract was awarded in 2012, Liberty and UPS, just one of five teams transporting freight, have moved thousands of pieces of equipment out of Afghanistan.
Knight offers some advice to those considering doing business in unusual locations. "Find the right partners. We found partners who are reputable, safe, and reliable." Liberty Global Logistics echoes this advice. Bob Wellner, Liberty's executive vice president, and Mike Chapell, its director of operations, emphasize the strength of their partnership with UPS. "Our standards for business are very similar to theirs; both parties set the bar for performance and compliance very high. There is a substantial level of trust."
Wellner and Chapell also salute the partnership with the Department of Defense. "What the United States government has been able to accomplish in conjunction with private partners is incredible."
One guy can make a difference
Over a decade ago, Jay Cziraky set out in an SUV to cross the border into Afghanistan. There is no cold like the cold rolling off the Hindu Kush mountains, but his survival concerns had nothing to do with the weather. Operation Enduring Freedom was in full swing and he was traveling the Ring Road deep in Afghanistan.
In the vernacular of those who work "outside the wire" in what the United States calls "nonpermissive environments," he was "low profile." In other words, anonymity was his only real protection.
Cziraky pulled up at a checkpoint at the gate of a muddy former Soviet airbase. A squad of soldiers guarding the entrance—a pair of Humvees outfitted with .50 caliber machine guns aimed his way—looked at him like he was nuts. He may well have been, but the forwarding agent had a job to do and he was where he needed to be.
It was December 2001. Emery Air Freight had arrived to set up commercial operations at Bagram Airfield, north of Kabul in Afghanistan. Just two months before, a mix of strikes from land-based B-1, B-2, and B-52 bombers; carrier-based F-14 and F/A-18 Hornet fighters; and cruise missiles had marked the launch of the assault on Southwest Asia. The American war in Afghanistan had begun.
And Jay Cziraky was now in the middle of it.
Over the course of the next 12 years, Emery's forwarding operations became Menlo Worldwide Forwarding, which was itself eventually folded into UPS. But through it all, that little freight forwarding office, launched out of the back of an SUV, survived and thrived. UPS now has an Authorized Service Agent organization on the ground, 70 employees strong, managing operations across Afghanistan.
Today, you may see a familiar brown truck driven by somebody in that iconic brown uniform making deliveries at Bagram Airfield. In the middle of a war zone.
Progress in generative AI (GenAI) is poised to impact business procurement processes through advancements in three areas—agentic reasoning, multimodality, and AI agents—according to Gartner Inc.
Those functions will redefine how procurement operates and significantly impact the agendas of chief procurement officers (CPOs). And 72% of procurement leaders are already prioritizing the integration of GenAI into their strategies, thus highlighting the recognition of its potential to drive significant improvements in efficiency and effectiveness, Gartner found in a survey conducted in July, 2024, with 258 global respondents.
Gartner defined the new functions as follows:
Agentic reasoning in GenAI allows for advanced decision-making processes that mimic human-like cognition. This capability will enable procurement functions to leverage GenAI to analyze complex scenarios and make informed decisions with greater accuracy and speed.
Multimodality refers to the ability of GenAI to process and integrate multiple forms of data, such as text, images, and audio. This will make GenAI more intuitively consumable to users and enhance procurement's ability to gather and analyze diverse information sources, leading to more comprehensive insights and better-informed strategies.
AI agents are autonomous systems that can perform tasks and make decisions on behalf of human operators. In procurement, these agents will automate procurement tasks and activities, freeing up human resources to focus on strategic initiatives, complex problem-solving and edge cases.
As CPOs look to maximize the value of GenAI in procurement, the study recommended three starting points: double down on data governance, develop and incorporate privacy standards into contracts, and increase procurement thresholds.
“These advancements will usher procurement into an era where the distance between ideas, insights, and actions will shorten rapidly,” Ryan Polk, senior director analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Procurement leaders who build their foundation now through a focus on data quality, privacy and risk management have the potential to reap new levels of productivity and strategic value from the technology."
Businesses are cautiously optimistic as peak holiday shipping season draws near, with many anticipating year-over-year sales increases as they continue to battle challenging supply chain conditions.
That’s according to the DHL 2024 Peak Season Shipping Survey, released today by express shipping service provider DHL Express U.S. The company surveyed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to gauge their holiday business outlook compared to last year and found that a mix of optimism and “strategic caution” prevail ahead of this year’s peak.
Nearly half (48%) of the SMEs surveyed said they expect higher holiday sales compared to 2023, while 44% said they expect sales to remain on par with last year, and just 8% said they foresee a decline. Respondents said the main challenges to hitting those goals are supply chain problems (35%), inflation and fluctuating consumer demand (34%), staffing (16%), and inventory challenges (14%).
But respondents said they have strategies in place to tackle those issues. Many said they began preparing for holiday season earlier this year—with 45% saying they started planning in Q2 or earlier, up from 39% last year. Other strategies include expanding into international markets (35%) and leveraging holiday discounts (32%).
Sixty percent of respondents said they will prioritize personalized customer service as a way to enhance customer interactions and loyalty this year. Still others said they will invest in enhanced web and mobile experiences (23%) and eco-friendly practices (13%) to draw customers this holiday season.
That challenge is one of the reasons that fewer shoppers overall are satisfied with their shopping experiences lately, Lincolnshire, Illinois-based Zebra said in its “17th Annual Global Shopper Study.”th Annual Global Shopper Study.” While 85% of shoppers last year were satisfied with both the in-store and online experiences, only 81% in 2024 are satisfied with the in-store experience and just 79% with online shopping.
In response, most retailers (78%) say they are investing in technology tools that can help both frontline workers and those watching operations from behind the scenes to minimize theft and loss, Zebra said.
Just 38% of retailers currently use AI-based prescriptive analytics for loss prevention, but a much larger 50% say they plan to use it in the next 1-3 years. That was followed by self-checkout cameras and sensors (45%), computer vision (46%), and RFID tags and readers (42%) that are planned for use within the next three years, specifically for loss prevention.
Those strategies could help improve the brick and mortar shopping experience, since 78% of shoppers say it’s annoying when products are locked up or secured within cases. Adding to that frustration is that it’s hard to find an associate while shopping in stores these days, according to 70% of consumers. In response, some just walk out; one in five shoppers has left a store without getting what they needed because a retail associate wasn’t available to help, an increase over the past two years.
The survey also identified additional frustrations faced by retailers and associates:
challenges with offering easy options for click-and-collect or returns, despite high shopper demand for them
the struggle to confirm current inventory and pricing
lingering labor shortages and increasing loss incidents, even as shoppers return to stores
“Many retailers are laying the groundwork to build a modern store experience,” Matt Guiste, Global Retail Technology Strategist, Zebra Technologies, said in a release. “They are investing in mobile and intelligent automation technologies to help inform operational decisions and enable associates to do the things that keep shoppers happy.”
The survey was administered online by Azure Knowledge Corporation and included 4,200 adult shoppers (age 18+), decision-makers, and associates, who replied to questions about the topics of shopper experience, device and technology usage, and delivery and fulfillment in store and online.
An eight-year veteran of the Georgia company, Hakala will begin his new role on January 1, when the current CEO, Tero Peltomäki, will retire after a long and noteworthy career, continuing as a member of the board of directors, Cimcorp said.
According to Hakala, automation is an inevitable course in Cimcorp’s core sectors, and the company’s end-to-end capabilities will be crucial for clients’ success. In the past, both the tire and grocery retail industries have automated individual machines and parts of their operations. In recent years, automation has spread throughout the facilities, as companies want to be able to see their entire operation with one look, utilize analytics, optimize processes, and lead with data.
“Cimcorp has always grown by starting small in the new business segments. We’ve created one solution first, and as we’ve gained more knowledge of our clients’ challenges, we have been able to expand,” Hakala said in a release. “In every phase, we aim to bring our experience to the table and even challenge the client’s initial perspective. We are interested in what our client does and how it could be done better and more efficiently.”
Although many shoppers will
return to physical stores this holiday season, online shopping remains a driving force behind peak-season shipping challenges, especially when it comes to the last mile. Consumers still want fast, free shipping if they can get it—without any delays or disruptions to their holiday deliveries.
One disruptor that gets a lot of headlines this time of year is package theft—committed by so-called “porch pirates.” These are thieves who snatch parcels from front stairs, side porches, and driveways in neighborhoods across the country. The problem adds up to billions of dollars in stolen merchandise each year—not to mention headaches for shippers, parcel delivery companies, and, of course, consumers.
Given the scope of the problem, it’s no wonder online shoppers are worried about it—especially during holiday season. In its annual report on package theft trends, released in October, the
security-focused research and product review firm Security.org found that:
17% of Americans had a package stolen in the past three months, with the typical stolen parcel worth about $50. Some 44% said they’d had a package taken at some point in their life.
Package thieves poached more than $8 billion in merchandise over the past year.
18% of adults said they’d had a package stolen that contained a gift for someone else.
Ahead of the holiday season, 88% of adults said they were worried about theft of online purchases, with more than a quarter saying they were “extremely” or “very” concerned.
But it doesn’t have to be that way. There are some low-tech steps consumers can take to help guard against porch piracy along with some high-tech logistics-focused innovations in the pipeline that can protect deliveries in the last mile. First, some common-sense advice on avoiding package theft from the Security.org research:
Install a doorbell camera, which is a relatively low-cost deterrent.
Bring packages inside promptly or arrange to have them delivered to a secure location if no one will be at home.
Consider using click-and-collect options when possible.
If the retailer allows you to specify delivery-time windows, consider doing so to avoid having packages sit outside for extended periods.
These steps may sound basic, but they are by no means a given: Fewer than half of Americans consider the timing of deliveries, less than a third have a doorbell camera, and nearly one-fifth take no precautions to prevent package theft, according to the research.
Tech vendors are stepping up to help. One example is
Arrive AI, which develops smart mailboxes for last-mile delivery and pickup. The company says its Mailbox-as-a-Service (MaaS) platform will revolutionize the last mile by building a network of parcel-storage boxes that can be accessed by people, drones, or robots. In a nutshell: Packages are placed into a weatherproof box via drone, robot, driverless carrier, or traditional delivery method—and no one other than the rightful owner can access it.
Although the platform is still in development, the company already offers solutions for business clients looking to secure high-value deliveries and sensitive shipments. The health-care industry is one example: Arrive AI offers secure drone delivery of medical supplies, prescriptions, lab samples, and the like to hospitals and other health-care facilities. The platform provides real-time tracking, chain-of-custody controls, and theft-prevention features. Arrive is conducting short-term deployments between logistics companies and health-care partners now, according to a company spokesperson.
The MaaS solution has a pretty high cool factor. And the common-sense best practices just seem like solid advice. Maybe combining both is the key to a more secure last mile—during peak shipping season and throughout the year as well.