Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to thinking they have invented the future
A recent Wall Street Journal feature reminded us that there may be little new under the sun, but that there is plenty of history being newly discovered.
Art van Bodegraven was, among other roles, chief design officer for the DES Leadership Academy. He passed away on June 18, 2017. He will be greatly missed.
A recent Wall Street Journal feature reminded us that there may be little new under the sun, but that there is plenty of history being newly discovered. The "aha!" moment for the Journal's intrepid sleuth, a professor from the University of New Hampshire, was the finding that suppliers, Procter & Gamble in this case, are being encouraged by that disruptive force, Amazon, to place operations adjacent to Amazon warehouses. Diapers are the select product. But we will not follow the obvious line of criticism here, including nappy jokes.
Our reaction is actually a collective and protracted "Well, duh!" Others may be wondering, "How long has this been going on?"
LINKS TO THE PAST
The good professor reaches way back into World War II for an early example in a superficially unrelated, but parallel, application. In the case in question, the U.S. Navy was busily engaged in being slightly too successful. Early in the war, after we recovered from the shock of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, we discovered that our hit-and-run tactics were limited by the necessity of returning to Hawaii to refuel.
Some genius conceived a great solution, and this was some 40 years before we could even say "supply chain management." Step One: Capture an island held by the enemy. Step Two: Station oil storage facilities there, replenished by the Navy's capacity-constrained oiler fleet. Step Three: Attack, return a short distance, refuel, and attack again. Step Four: Repeat Steps One through Four, only closer to Japan.
But success led to another outstripping of capability and capacity. Ultimately, a scheme in which oilers met carriers at predetermined forward locations and refueled while in forward motion solved the problem. Thus was born what is just now being called "co-location" of supplier and distributor facilities. Some have called the solution a "just-in-time" supply chain.
JUST-IN-TIME?
WWII logistics eventually influenced private industry's material handling, then physical distribution concepts in the post-war period. What we forget is that the legendary Taiichi Ohno built the Toyota Production System (Lean manufacturing) on a foundation laid in his 1946 visits to Ford.
The Japanese manufacturing approaches, kaizen, kanbans, and the lot, were relatively late in development, were often borrowed from American practices, and owed much to prophets without honor at home (e.g., W. Edwards Deming). They made their way early into the automobile industry and later into other types of manufacturing—and still later into a spectrum of nonmanufacturing practices. And so we more or less adopted relevant components of just-in-time—some 30 or more years ago.
In Japan, a significant enabling feature of just-in-time success was the formation of keiretsu, a collection of trusted key suppliers located near or adjacent to production facilities. The idea was not inventory reduction, but a recognition that short distances meant short times—times to respond, times to change over, times to tweak quantities and schedules.
Sounds, in action, very much like co-location to us; does it to you?
WAS JUST-IN-TIME SLAIN OR MERELY MAIMED?
While the terminology has continued in use until the present day, the reality of offshore manufacturing significantly altered the core premises of just-in-time. Global marine transport wiped out the short distance/short time advantage, and uncertainties in supplier reliability, factors of time and distance, and vagaries of weather (not to mention the beady-eyed tactic of slow steaming) demanded markedly higher inventories in order to maintain service levels to customers. Sell-through of a fixed order quantity became a de facto operating standard given the slow response to tweaks in continuous-flow replenishment.
At least in certain industries. But consider this: The largest of the big box retailers required its vendors to locate forward inventories near access points of entry into its internal distribution network. Does that sound like co-location? How about this? A third-party logistics service provider (3PL) for a tier two automotive supplier assembling wiring harnesses worked inside the customer's facility, integrating the flow of its component into a deliverable component for the ultimate manufacturing and assembly customer. Co-location? You bet!
The first example dates back some 15 years; the second has been in place for over a dozen. So, how new is this co-location concept, anyway? And is it stretching a point to try to tie this "new" development to an event that, while it may be current events for us, is likely ancient history to you?
ON AND ON ...
More likely, we think, is that this vaunted co-location is just part of the continuously evolving way we execute processes and concepts of long standing in our profession. Just-in-time, for example, didn't go away; it merely put on a new dress. And it wasn't new in the early '80s when we thought we imported it, along with some Datsuns and Toyotas, from the land of the Rising Yen.
We keep, like some sort of perverse Groundhog Day, repeating this rediscovery and reinvention process. A few years ago, we—the trade press, the movers and shakers, and the consultants—fell in love with the concept of fulfillment. And that was well before information technology and omnichannel whatever. What we forget is that a little catalog retailer out of Chicago built a fortune that endures to this day by doing fulfillment. Customers sent in orders, with some arrangement for payment, and people fanned out inside an enormous distribution center, selected the ordered item(s), and shipped it/them to the customer.
The differences? Orders arrived via U.S. mail, no information technology assigned shelf locations in the facility, pick waves were not computer-generated, and a shipment might arrive by Railway Express. No computers, no FedEx, no Androids or iPhones, few complex algorithms, no Excel, no control tower. But the company, the brainchild of a fella named Sears, somehow managed to satisfy customers, shipping brassieres, long johns, hammers, automobiles, and even entire houses.
THE MESSAGE
Cool your jets, cowboy. What's new under the sun may not be nearly as important as making what we've got work better. That approach has served us, planetwide, pretty well—to the point at which we can scarcely recognize what we started with.
Occupiers signed leases for 49 such mega distribution centers last year, up from 43 in 2023. However, the 2023 total had marked the first decline in the number of mega distribution center leases, which grew sharply during the pandemic and peaked at 61 in 2022.
Despite the 2024 increase in mega distribution center leases, the average size of the largest 100 industrial leases fell slightly to 968,000 sq. ft. from 987,000 sq. ft. in 2023.
Another wrinkle in the numbers was the fact that 40 of the largest 100 leases were renewals, up from 30 in 2023. According to CBRE, the increase in renewals reflected economic uncertainty, prompting many major occupiers to take a wait-and-see approach to their leasing strategies.
“The rise in lease renewals underscores a strategic shift in the market,” John Morris, president of Americas Industrial & Logistics at CBRE, said in a release. “Companies are more frequently prioritizing stability and efficiency by extending their current leases in established logistics hubs.”
Broken out into sectors, traditional retailers and wholesalers increased their share of the top 100 leases to 38% from 30%. Conversely, the food & beverage, automotive, and building materials sectors accounted for fewer of this year's top 100 leases than they did in 2023. Notably, building materials suppliers and electric vehicle manufacturers were also significantly less active than in 2023, allowing retailers and wholesalers to claim a larger share.
Activity from third-party logistics operators (3PLs) also dipped slightly, accounting for one fewer lease among the top 100 (28 in total) than it did in 2023. Nevertheless, the 2024 total was well above the 15 leases in 2020 and 18 in 2022, underscoring the increasing reliance of big industrial users on 3PLs to manage their logistics, CBRE said.
Oh, you work in logistics, too? Then you’ve probably met my friends Truedi, Lumi, and Roger.
No, you haven’t swapped business cards with those guys or eaten appetizers together at a trade-show social hour. But the chances are good that you’ve had conversations with them. That’s because they’re the online chatbots “employed” by three companies operating in the supply chain arena—TrueCommerce,Blue Yonder, and Truckstop. And there’s more where they came from. A number of other logistics-focused companies—like ChargePoint,Packsize,FedEx, and Inspectorio—have also jumped in the game.
While chatbots are actually highly technical applications, most of us know them as the small text boxes that pop up whenever you visit a company’s home page, eagerly asking questions like:
“I’m Truedi, the virtual assistant for TrueCommerce. Can I help you find what you need?”
“Hey! Want to connect with a rep from our team now?”
“Hi there. Can I ask you a quick question?”
Chatbots have proved particularly popular among retailers—an October survey by artificial intelligence (AI) specialist NLX found that a full 92% of U.S. merchants planned to have generative AI (GenAI) chatbots in place for the holiday shopping season. The companies said they planned to use those bots for both consumer-facing applications—like conversation-based product recommendations and customer service automation—and for employee-facing applications like automating business processes in buying and merchandising.
But how smart are these chatbots really? It varies. At the high end of the scale, there’s “Rufus,” Amazon’s GenAI-powered shopping assistant. Amazon says millions of consumers have used Rufus over the past year, asking it questions either by typing or speaking. The tool then searches Amazon’s product listings, customer reviews, and community Q&A forums to come up with answers. The bot can also compare different products, make product recommendations based on the weather where a consumer lives, and provide info on the latest fashion trends, according to the retailer.
Another top-shelf chatbot is “Manhattan Active Maven,” a GenAI-powered tool from supply chain software developer Manhattan Associates that was recently adopted by the Army and Air Force Exchange Service. The Exchange Service, which is the 54th-largest retailer in the U.S., is using Maven to answer inquiries from customers—largely U.S. soldiers, airmen, and their families—including requests for information related to order status, order changes, shipping, and returns.
However, not all chatbots are that sophisticated, and not all are equipped with AI, according to IBM. The earliest generation—known as “FAQ chatbots”—are only clever enough to recognize certain keywords in a list of known questions and then respond with preprogrammed answers. In contrast, modern chatbots increasingly use conversational AI techniques such as natural language processing to “understand” users’ questions, IBM said. It added that the next generation of chatbots with GenAI capabilities will be able to grasp and respond to increasingly complex queries and even adapt to a user’s style of conversation.
Given their wide range of capabilities, it’s not always easy to know just how “smart” the chatbot you’re talking to is. But come to think of it, maybe that’s also true of the live workers we come in contact with each day. Depending on who picks up the phone, you might find yourself speaking with an intern who’s still learning the ropes or a seasoned professional who can handle most any challenge. Either way, the best way to interact with our new chatbot colleagues is probably to take the same approach you would with their human counterparts: Start out simple, and be respectful; you never know what you’ll learn.
With the hourglass dwindling before steep tariffs threatened by the new Trump Administration will impose new taxes on U.S. companies importing goods from abroad, organizations need to deploy strategies to handle those spiraling costs.
American companies with far-flung supply chains have been hanging for weeks in a “wait-and-see” situation to learn if they will have to pay increased fees to U.S. Customs and Border Enforcement agents for every container they import from certain nations. After paying those levies, companies face the stark choice of either cutting their own profit margins or passing the increased cost on to U.S. consumers in the form of higher prices.
The impact could be particularly harsh for American manufacturers, according to Kerrie Jordan, Group Vice President, Product Management at supply chain software vendor Epicor. “If higher tariffs go into effect, imported goods will cost more,” Jordan said in a statement. “Companies must assess the impact of higher prices and create resilient strategies to absorb, offset, or reduce the impact of higher costs. For companies that import foreign goods, they will have to find alternatives or pay the tariffs and somehow offset the cost to the business. This can take the form of building up inventory before tariffs go into effect or finding an equivalent domestic alternative if they don’t want to pay the tariff.”
Tariffs could be particularly painful for U.S. manufacturers that import raw materials—such as steel, aluminum, or rare earth minerals—since the impact would have a domino effect throughout their operations, according to a statement from Matt Lekstutis, Director at consulting firm Efficio. “Based on the industry, there could be a large detrimental impact on a company's operations. If there is an increase in raw materials or a delay in those shipments, as being the first step in materials / supply chain process, there is the possibility of a ripple down effect into the rest of the supply chain operations,” Lekstutis said.
New tariffs could also hurt consumer packaged goods (CPG) retailers, which are already being hit by the mere threat of tariffs in the form of inventory fluctuations seen as companies have rushed many imports into the country before the new administration began, according to a report from Iowa-based third party logistics provider (3PL) JT Logistics. That jump in imported goods has quickly led to escalating demands for expanded warehousing, since CPG companies need a place to store all that material, Jamie Cord, president and CEO of JT Logistics, said in a release
Immediate strategies to cope with that disruption include adopting strategies that prioritize agility, including capacity planning and risk diversification by leveraging multiple fulfillment partners, and strategic inventory positioning across regional warehouses to bypass bottlenecks caused by trade restrictions, JT Logistics said. And long-term resilience recommendations include scenario-based planning, expanded supplier networks, inventory buffering, multimodal transportation solutions, and investment in automation and AI for insights and smarter operations, the firm said.
“Navigating the complexities of tariff-driven disruptions requires forward-thinking strategies,” Cord said. “By leveraging predictive modeling, diversifying warehouse networks, and strategically positioning inventory, JT Logistics is empowering CPG brands to remain adaptive, minimize risks, and remain competitive in the current dynamic market."
With so many variables at play, no company can predict the final impact of the potential Trump tariffs, so American companies should start planning for all potential outcomes at once, according to a statement from Nari Viswanathan, senior director of supply chain strategy at Coupa Software. Faced with layers of disruption—with the possible tariffs coming on top of pre-existing geopolitical conflicts and security risks—logistics hubs and businesses must prepare for any what-if scenario. In fact, the strongest companies will have scenarios planned as far out as the next three to five years, Viswanathan said.
Grocery shoppers at select IGA, Price Less, and Food Giant stores will soon be able to use an upgraded in-store digital commerce experience, since store chain operator Houchens Food Group said it would deploy technology from eGrowcery, provider of a retail food industry white-label digital commerce platform.
Kentucky-based Houchens Food Group, which owns and operates more than 400 grocery, convenience, hardware/DIY, and foodservice locations in 15 states, said the move would empower retailers to rethink how and when to engage their shoppers best.
“At HFG we are focused on technology vendors that allow for highly targeted and personalized customer experiences, data-driven decision making, and e-commerce capabilities that do not interrupt day to day customer service at store level. We are thrilled to partner with eGrowcery to assist us in targeting the right audience with the right message at the right time,” Craig Knies, Chief Marketing Officer of Houchens Food Group, said in a release.
Michigan-based eGrowcery, which operates both in the United States and abroad, says it gives retail groups like Houchens Food Group the ability to provide a white-label e-commerce platform to the retailers it supplies, and integrate the program into the company’s overall technology offering. “Houchens Food Group is a great example of an organization that is working hard to simultaneously enhance its technology offering, engage shoppers through more channels and alleviate some of the administrative burden for its staff,” Patrick Hughes, CEO of eGrowcery, said.
The 40-acre solar facility in Gentry, Arkansas, includes nearly 18,000 solar panels and 10,000-plus bi-facial solar modules to capture sunlight, which is then converted to electricity and transmitted to a nearby electric grid for Carroll County Electric. The facility will produce approximately 9.3M kWh annually and utilize net metering, which helps transfer surplus power onto the power grid.
Construction of the facility began in 2024. The project was managed by NextEra Energy and completed by Verogy. Both Trio (formerly Edison Energy) and Carroll Electric Cooperative Corporation provided ongoing consultation throughout planning and development.
“By commissioning this solar facility, J.B. Hunt is demonstrating our commitment to enhancing the communities we serve and to investing in economically viable practices aimed at creating a more sustainable supply chain,” Greer Woodruff, executive vice president of safety, sustainability and maintenance at J.B. Hunt, said in a release. “The annual amount of clean energy generated by the J.B. Hunt Solar Facility will be equivalent to that used by nearly 1,200 homes. And, by drawing power from the sun and not a carbon-based source, the carbon dioxide kept from entering the atmosphere will be equivalent to eliminating 1,400 passenger vehicles from the road each year.”