In a bid to cut costs, more shippers are using computer modeling to decide whether to take control of their inbound shipments. But be prepared: Suppliers might not be willing to play along.
James Cooke is a principal analyst with Nucleus Research in Boston, covering supply chain planning software. He was previously the editor of CSCMP?s Supply Chain Quarterly and a staff writer for DC Velocity.
Buyers and sellers have battled over control of inbound shipments for decades. But in today's tough economy, that conflict has intensified as buyers—especially retailers—step up their efforts to cut supply chain costs.
As part of these efforts, buyers are looking at whether they could save money by assuming control of the inbound move, instead of paying whatever the seller charges to deliver its freight to the buyer's door. To help make this determination, many are turning to transportation management systems (TMS). Because this type of software allows them to model so-called "what-if" scenarios, it's a useful tool for weighing the pros and cons of taking over responsibility for inbound moves. But, experts caution, logistics managers should not assume they will automatically reap all the benefits the model suggests are available.
MODELING THE "WHAT-IFS"
The growing interest among buyers in managing inbound freight was highlighted in a recent Kane Research study, "Key Supply Chain Challenges of Mid-Sized CPG Companies." A number of the 110 consumer packaged goods executives who participated in the study reported that the retailers they do business with want greater control of inbound freight than in the past.
That's not surprising given that many retailers believe their market power allows them to negotiate more favorable rates with truckers than their suppliers could. But the desire to control inbound shipments isn't just about money. "Retailers also want to use their preferred carriers to ... ensure that they are working with the carriers that understand the retailer's specific needs and requirements," says study co-author Brian Gibson, a professor of supply chain management at Auburn University in Alabama. In addition, a retailer that operates a private fleet may have another motivation for wanting to take control of its inbound shipments: It may be able to reduce empty miles by picking up an inbound shipment from a vendor after delivering an outbound load in the same vicinity.
In order to decide who should control inbound freight, shippers first need to do an analysis. And a TMS gives them a tool to weigh the tradeoffs. For instance, Monica Wooden, chief executive officer of the TMS developer MercuryGate International Inc., reports that a number of her company's retail clients, including Dillard's, Bed Bath & Beyond, and Walmart.com, have recently used a TMS for evaluating inbound options.
How does a TMS help with such an analysis? For starters, it can model whether a proposed shift in control of inbound transportation might allow a buyer to obtain a lower rate on a specific lane. "A what-if analysis can determine what it will cost me on a per-unit basis if I take on control of transportation of this product," explains Derek Gittoes, vice president, logistics product strategy at Oracle, which offers a TMS. "I can then compare that with the current freight cost."
TMS modeling can also help users determine whether a buyer could tap into its carrier network to coordinate pickups with deliveries, either with an existing for-hire trucker or with its private fleet. In this way, the TMS can provide the visibility needed to make better decisions regarding inbound transportation expenditures, says Chuck Fuerst, director of product strategy at TMS provider HighJump Software Inc.
Increasingly, that visibility is expanding beyond domestic boundaries. Historically, when companies have used a TMS to assess the cost implications of handling their own inbound shipments, they have looked only at truck movements within the United States. But some are starting to use this type of software to examine inbound air or ocean shipments from overseas suppliers. "I expect to see more growth for doing this on the international side," says Fabrizio Brasca, vice president of global logistics for JDA Software Inc., another TMS provider. "There's a growing trend for larger retailers to look at this analysis from origin to ultimate destination."
THE MATCH GAME
Because modeling requires time and resources, this type of analysis should not be undertaken lightly. Before getting started, a shipper should have at least some idea where savings opportunities might be found, cautions Roy Ananny, a senior manager in the transportation practice of the consultant Chainalytics. If the shipper operates a private fleet, for example, the company might focus on identifying potential backhauls.
Alternatively, the buyer might want to look at the vendor's pricing—that is, whether the supplier is charging more for the inbound delivery service than the going for-hire rate. If a vendor includes a "freight allowance" on the bill, it's fairly easy to tell whether that's the case. A freight allowance is the amount the manufacturer will deduct from the bill should the buyer pick up the freight. By law, the freight allowance must reflect the seller's actual cost for moving the goods. "The easiest way to justify a TMS modeling is if the freight allowances along lanes are [higher] than the market rate," says Ananny.
Unfortunately, not every manufacturer breaks out the inbound transportation cost on the bill of sale. "If the vendor is covering the freight himself, he may not tell you his rate cost," Ananny warns.
Still other buyers might find it worthwhile analyzing their network for opportunities to pair headhaul and backhaul trips—a move that would likely allow them to negotiate better rates. To determine whether such opportunities are available, Ananny says, shippers can pull data from their purchase order system and feed it to the TMS as if it were an instruction to set up a shipment. If the system indicates, for instance, that the product associated with a particular purchase order will be available tomorrow afternoon on the supplier's dock, the buyer could pick it up with the same vehicle used to make a delivery to a nearby location earlier in the day. "Both freight requirements must come together," he says.
GOOD IN THEORY ...
All of this is good in theory, but it may be hard to achieve in practice, even with help from a TMS. The coordination of outbound and inbound transportation can be complicated and expensive. Furthermore, logistics managers have to temper the simulation's results with their own assessment of the vendor's ability to stick to a schedule.
"In real life, as a shipper, you don't have a lot of control over the vendor's dock facilities," Ananny points out. If a vendor can't meet its commitments, it could throw off plans to pick up and deliver multiple shipments on a single run. "The vendor says, 'Come here at 10 a.m.,' but [suppose] there's an unforeseen circumstance and you don't get loaded until 2 p.m. The second pickup is in jeopardy because that vendor doesn't stay open long enough to accommodate the delay," he says. Even if the TMS suggests multiple pickups are possible, in reality, the success rate will be less than 100 percent, he adds.
And there's another potential obstacle: Suppliers may be unwilling to renegotiate the terms of sale to accommodate a buyer that wants to take control of its inbound moves. "The vendors may not be willing to change the way they do business with you," Ananny says. "The vendors may say, 'You can pick up the freight, but we're not going to change our price.'"
Indeed, many suppliers are resistant to handing over inbound control because they, too, want high shipment volumes to use as leverage when negotiating with carriers. "Suppliers who also have scale benefits resist giving up a portion of their scale to select customers simply because it would de-scale their network," explains Kumar Venkataraman, a partner in the consumer industries and retail practice at the consulting firm A.T. Kearney.
The takeaway: Although a transportation management system can be valuable in helping shippers identify potential benefits of controlling inbound transportation, logistics managers should conduct any modeling exercise with their eyes wide open. "TMS modeling can play a role in quantifying the value as long as people doing the modeling are aware of the things that can go wrong," Ananny says.
A move by federal regulators to reinforce requirements for broker transparency in freight transactions is stirring debate among transportation groups, after the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) published a “notice of proposed rulemaking” this week.
According to FMCSA, its draft rule would strive to make broker transparency more common, requiring greater sharing of the material information necessary for transportation industry parties to make informed business decisions and to support the efficient resolution of disputes.
The proposed rule titled “Transparency in Property Broker Transactions” would address what FMCSA calls the lack of access to information among shippers and motor carriers that can impact the fairness and efficiency of the transportation system, and would reframe broker transparency as a regulatory duty imposed on brokers, with the goal of deterring non-compliance. Specifically, the move would require brokers to keep electronic records, and require brokers to provide transaction records to motor carriers and shippers upon request and within 48 hours of that request.
Under federal regulatory processes, public comments on the move are due by January 21, 2025. However, transportation groups are not waiting on the sidelines to voice their opinions.
According to the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), an industry group representing the third-party logistics (3PL) industry, the potential rule is “misguided overreach” that fails to address the more pressing issue of freight fraud. In TIA’s view, broker transparency regulation is “obsolete and un-American,” and has no place in today’s “highly transparent” marketplace. “This proposal represents a misguided focus on outdated and unnecessary regulations rather than tackling issues that genuinely threaten the safety and efficiency of our nation’s supply chains,” TIA said.
But trucker trade group the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) welcomed the proposed rule, which it said would ensure that brokers finally play by the rules. “We appreciate that FMCSA incorporated input from our petition, including a requirement to make records available electronically and emphasizing that brokers have a duty to comply with regulations. As FMCSA noted, broker transparency is necessary for a fair, efficient transportation system, and is especially important to help carriers defend themselves against alleged claims on a shipment,” OOIDA President Todd Spencer said in a statement.
Additional pushback came from the Small Business in Transportation Coalition (SBTC), a network of transportation professionals in small business, which said the potential rule didn’t go far enough. “This is too little too late and is disappointing. It preserves the status quo, which caters to Big Broker & TIA. There is no question now that FMCSA has been captured by Big Broker. Truckers and carriers must now come out in droves and file comments in full force against this starting tomorrow,” SBTC executive director James Lamb said in a LinkedIn post.
Bloomington, Indiana-based FTR said its Trucking Conditions Index declined in September to -2.47 from -1.39 in August as weakness in the principal freight dynamics – freight rates, utilization, and volume – offset lower fuel costs and slightly less unfavorable financing costs.
Those negative numbers are nothing new—the TCI has been positive only twice – in May and June of this year – since April 2022, but the group’s current forecast still envisions consistently positive readings through at least a two-year forecast horizon.
“Aside from a near-term boost mostly related to falling diesel prices, we have not changed our Trucking Conditions Index forecast significantly in the wake of the election,” Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said in a release. “The outlook continues to be more favorable for carriers than what they have experienced for well over two years. Our analysis indicates gradual but steadily rising capacity utilization leading to stronger freight rates in 2025.”
But FTR said its forecast remains unchanged. “Just like everyone else, we’ll be watching closely to see exactly what trade and other economic policies are implemented and over what time frame. Some freight disruptions are likely due to tariffs and other factors, but it is not yet clear that those actions will do more than shift the timing of activity,” Vise said.
The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. Combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health, a positive score represents good, optimistic conditions while a negative score shows the inverse.
Specifically, the new global average robot density has reached a record 162 units per 10,000 employees in 2023, which is more than double the mark of 74 units measured seven years ago.
Broken into geographical regions, the European Union has a robot density of 219 units per 10,000 employees, an increase of 5.2%, with Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Slovenia in the global top ten. Next, North America’s robot density is 197 units per 10,000 employees – up 4.2%. And Asia has a robot density of 182 units per 10,000 persons employed in manufacturing - an increase of 7.6%. The economies of Korea, Singapore, mainland China and Japan are among the top ten most automated countries.
Broken into individual countries, the U.S. ranked in 10th place in 2023, with a robot density of 295 units. Higher up on the list, the top five are:
The Republic of Korea, with 1,012 robot units, showing a 5% increase on average each year since 2018 thanks to its strong electronics and automotive industries.
Singapore had 770 robot units, in part because it is a small country with a very low number of employees in the manufacturing industry, so it can reach a high robot density with a relatively small operational stock.
China took third place in 2023, surpassing Germany and Japan with a mark of 470 robot units as the nation has managed to double its robot density within four years.
Germany ranks fourth with 429 robot units for a 5% CAGR since 2018.
Japan is in fifth place with 419 robot units, showing growth of 7% on average each year from 2018 to 2023.
Progress in generative AI (GenAI) is poised to impact business procurement processes through advancements in three areas—agentic reasoning, multimodality, and AI agents—according to Gartner Inc.
Those functions will redefine how procurement operates and significantly impact the agendas of chief procurement officers (CPOs). And 72% of procurement leaders are already prioritizing the integration of GenAI into their strategies, thus highlighting the recognition of its potential to drive significant improvements in efficiency and effectiveness, Gartner found in a survey conducted in July, 2024, with 258 global respondents.
Gartner defined the new functions as follows:
Agentic reasoning in GenAI allows for advanced decision-making processes that mimic human-like cognition. This capability will enable procurement functions to leverage GenAI to analyze complex scenarios and make informed decisions with greater accuracy and speed.
Multimodality refers to the ability of GenAI to process and integrate multiple forms of data, such as text, images, and audio. This will make GenAI more intuitively consumable to users and enhance procurement's ability to gather and analyze diverse information sources, leading to more comprehensive insights and better-informed strategies.
AI agents are autonomous systems that can perform tasks and make decisions on behalf of human operators. In procurement, these agents will automate procurement tasks and activities, freeing up human resources to focus on strategic initiatives, complex problem-solving and edge cases.
As CPOs look to maximize the value of GenAI in procurement, the study recommended three starting points: double down on data governance, develop and incorporate privacy standards into contracts, and increase procurement thresholds.
“These advancements will usher procurement into an era where the distance between ideas, insights, and actions will shorten rapidly,” Ryan Polk, senior director analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Procurement leaders who build their foundation now through a focus on data quality, privacy and risk management have the potential to reap new levels of productivity and strategic value from the technology."
Businesses are cautiously optimistic as peak holiday shipping season draws near, with many anticipating year-over-year sales increases as they continue to battle challenging supply chain conditions.
That’s according to the DHL 2024 Peak Season Shipping Survey, released today by express shipping service provider DHL Express U.S. The company surveyed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to gauge their holiday business outlook compared to last year and found that a mix of optimism and “strategic caution” prevail ahead of this year’s peak.
Nearly half (48%) of the SMEs surveyed said they expect higher holiday sales compared to 2023, while 44% said they expect sales to remain on par with last year, and just 8% said they foresee a decline. Respondents said the main challenges to hitting those goals are supply chain problems (35%), inflation and fluctuating consumer demand (34%), staffing (16%), and inventory challenges (14%).
But respondents said they have strategies in place to tackle those issues. Many said they began preparing for holiday season earlier this year—with 45% saying they started planning in Q2 or earlier, up from 39% last year. Other strategies include expanding into international markets (35%) and leveraging holiday discounts (32%).
Sixty percent of respondents said they will prioritize personalized customer service as a way to enhance customer interactions and loyalty this year. Still others said they will invest in enhanced web and mobile experiences (23%) and eco-friendly practices (13%) to draw customers this holiday season.