Mark Solomon joined DC VELOCITY as senior editor in August 2008, and was promoted to his current position on January 1, 2015. He has spent more than 30 years in the transportation, logistics and supply chain management fields as a journalist and public relations professional. From 1989 to 1994, he worked in Washington as a reporter for the Journal of Commerce, covering the aviation and trucking industries, the Department of Transportation, Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court. Prior to that, he worked for Traffic World for seven years in a similar role. From 1994 to 2008, Mr. Solomon ran Media-Based Solutions, a public relations firm based in Atlanta. He graduated in 1978 with a B.A. in journalism from The American University in Washington, D.C.
In late June, Con-way Truckload, the truckload unit of transport logistics giant Con-way Inc., launched a partnership with a driver training school in Detroit. Under the partnership, students would receive reduced tuition rates while in school and be eligible to have up to one-half of that tuition reimbursed by the company when they graduate.
Con-way Truckload then extended an extraordinary carrot: It would waive the traditional "commitment" contract requiring a new driver to remain with the carrier for a specified period or else return the reimbursement. In other words, there was nothing to keep students from taking advantage of the subsidized training then moving on once they earned their commercial license.
Herb Schmidt, Con-way Truckload's president, said the waiver is an indication of the company's confidence in the quality of its work environment. "We want drivers to be here because they want to be, not because they are contractually or financially obligated to be," he said.
The waiver represents an unconventional approach to keeping drivers in what could become an unprecedented period of driver demand. While the nation struggles through a painfully prolonged period of high unemployment, driver jobs go begging. Consultancy FTR Associates estimates the industry is short about 188,000 drivers. National Transportation Institute (NTI), a firm that tracks driver employment and compensation trends, pegs the shortfall at about 30,000.
The revolving door
Beyond the shortage, however, lies a more pernicious problem: driver turnover, known in industry parlance as "churn." A report by the American Trucking Associations (ATA) estimated that, based on first-quarter numbers, 75 percent of drivers for large truckload fleets will turn over in 2011, the fastest clip since the second quarter of 2008. Turnover at smaller truckload fleets is projected at 50 percent, the highest annualized level reported since 2008's third quarter, according to the report.
Some of the turnover is due to attrition from death, retirement, and drivers' leaving the business. But Bob Costello, ATA's chief economist, said most of the churn comes from drivers becoming free agents who make their services available to the highest bidder. Costello said he expects the turnover rate to rise as freight demand accelerates, the number of retirees outpaces new entrants (one of every six drivers is 55 or older), and new safety regulations like CSA 2010—an initiative designed to winnow out marginal drivers through a complex grading system—give drivers with solid safety records more bargaining power than they've had in years.
For carriers, churn is a serious headache. Replacing a qualified over-the-road driver takes time and money. An unexpected departure also wreaks havoc on a carrier's network.
Shippers, meanwhile, get hit two ways: Not only does churn threaten to disrupt their supply chains, but it forces them to pay higher rates to compensate truckers for rising labor costs. Lana R. Batts, a long-time top trucking executive and now a partner in Transport Capital Partners LLC (TCP), a transport mergers and acquisitions advisory firm, said virtually all of the revenues obtained from rate increases will be sunk into paying escalating driver wages.
Estimates vary on the likely impact of wage increases on the nation's fleets. Leo Suggs, CEO of the former Overnite Transportation Co. and now chairman of Dallas-based contract carrier and third-party logistics service provider Greatwide Logistics Services, told an industry conference recently that wage hikes could drive up truckload rates by 5 to 15 percent over the next year. However, Schmidt of Con-way Truckload predicted only a 2- to 3-percent increase during that time due to general economic softness and labor slack in other industries like construction that compete for the same workers.
Schmidt added, however, that should the economy pick up appreciably, "there will be a driver shortage the likes of which we've never seen before." Right now, he said, "I've seen worse."
Ongoing wage problem
Carriers seeking to keep their drivers don't have much in the way of options. They can pay their drivers more, redesign their networks to provide drivers with predictable schedules and a better work-life balance, or a combination of the two.
Wages appear to be trending upward. Rates for owner-operators have climbed to $1 per mile from 92 cents a little more than a year ago, according to Gordon Klemp, president of NTI. Driver wages at for-hire carriers are also rising, though not at the same pace, he said.
Another factor in drivers' favor is that carriers are asking their drivers for more miles, which pads the paychecks of drivers paid on a per-mile basis, said Klemp.
But the industry has a ways to go to achieve the kind of wage levels that attract drivers or keep them from jumping to rivals. According to FTR estimates, the median annual salary for a truckload driver is about $48,000, though pay will range from $35,000 to $75,000 depending on the trucker's financial condition and the driver's qualifications. For drivers at less-than-truckload (LTL) and private fleets, the average is about $58,000, said Noel Perry, a senior analyst at FTR. Klemp pegs the median annual salary for a dry-van truckload driver in the Midwest at about $46,700. He did not have details on salaries for drivers at LTL or private fleets, but he said they are higher.
A recent survey of 150 fleets by TCP said wages need to be in the $50,000- to $70,000-a-year range to draw applicants into the field and keep them once they're hired. Klemp said the median driver salary needs to reach about $67,000 a year to accomplish both objectives.
Of equal importance is to narrow the wide gap between the wages of drivers working for truckers in the top quartile of payors, and those at carriers in the bottom quartile, Klemp said. The differential currently sits at a historic high of 16 cents per mile, well above the traditional gap of nine to 10 cents per mile, according to NTI data. Until the gap is closed, "you will continue to have churn," he said.
Batts of TCP said wages must rise to keep drivers performing a job so critical to the U.S. economy but which presents serious work-life challenges due to long periods of time away from home. "If you are going to have an awful lifestyle connected with the job, you need to be overcompensated for it," she said.
Keeping drivers content
Carriers, for their part, recognize this fact. For example, J.B. Hunt Transportation Services Inc., the company perhaps most closely associated with long-haul trucking, is diverting more of that freight to intermodal rail service as it focuses its truck network on more regionalized deliveries. Hunt and other carriers realize that intermodal service, besides reducing their line-haul costs, boosts driver retention because shorter hauls at the regional level mean more time at home.
Kane Is Able Inc., a trucker and third-party logistics service provider, keeps its 200 drivers operating at distances of about 300 miles each way, thus maximizing home time. That factor, as much as anything, makes driver churn a virtual non-issue, said Lawrence Catanzaro, the company's vice president, transportation safety and recruiting. "We don't have a lot of turnover. When we get drivers, we generally keep them," he said.
Most of the driver retention precepts are not rocket science, carrier executives say. Companies must stress communication with their drivers, create a pleasant work environment, provide opportunities for advancement either within the unit or with another company division, and monitor their competitors to uncover best practices and to stay a step ahead.
With CSA 2010 at the top of everyone's mind, carrier executives stress that working with drivers to improve their safety scores has the ancillary benefit of improving morale and minimizing churn.
"You are improving a driver's performance, which will make a company more valued in a customer's eyes. But it also shows the drivers that the company cares about their life and their work," said Charles W. Clowdis Jr., managing director, transportation consulting and advisory services at consultancy IHS Global Insight.
Shippers can play a part by making their freight more driver-friendly, executives say. "Attention to proper loading, adjusting pickup or delivery times to better accommodate [current driver hours-of-service] regulations, and managing driver [wait times] are more important than ever," said Mark Rourke, president of the truckload division of trucking and logistics giant Schneider National Inc. "Shippers need to be cognizant of the downstream impact of their freight on drivers."
"It's pretty simple," said Schmidt of Con-way Truckload. "Run an efficient dock, turn the loads quickly, and get the driver moving on down the road."
Churn, schmurn!
The problem of driver turnover, or "churn," keeps many trucking executives awake at night. But Herb Schmidt, CEO of Con-way Truckload, says he sleeps pretty soundly.
"It doesn't bother me one bit," said Schmidt, referring to driver turnover. Although "churn" is inevitable in trucking, he says, there are ways to minimize its impact on operations. The key, he explains, is to make sure the turnover is "planned."
In a program that the executive said is unique to the trucking business, the Joplin, Mo.-based carrier grants its drivers as much as four to five months of unpaid leave a year if the driver is considered a good worker and demonstrates a legitimate personal or business need for the time off.
Drivers using the program are technically terminated when they leave and do not receive any credits toward service tenure during their time away. However, they are guaranteed of rehire when their leave is over, and at the same pay, benefit, and seniority levels they had when they departed. The time off can be taken all at once, or it can be divided into intervals of the employee's choosing.
Schmidt said the program boosts morale and helps discourage turnover by giving drivers the freedom and flexibility to tend to other business or personal needs. At the same time, the company can plan ahead for their absence and minimize the risk of being caught short of drivers. Schmidt said that Con-way Truckload's driver turnover is about 30 to 35 percent below truckload industry averages.
The program is well suited for drivers who have second vocations—such as farming and ranching—with predictable seasonality to them, according to Schmidt. He estimated that less than 5 percent of Con-way Truckload's 3,000 drivers now take advantage of the program.
A move by federal regulators to reinforce requirements for broker transparency in freight transactions is stirring debate among transportation groups, after the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) published a “notice of proposed rulemaking” this week.
According to FMCSA, its draft rule would strive to make broker transparency more common, requiring greater sharing of the material information necessary for transportation industry parties to make informed business decisions and to support the efficient resolution of disputes.
The proposed rule titled “Transparency in Property Broker Transactions” would address what FMCSA calls the lack of access to information among shippers and motor carriers that can impact the fairness and efficiency of the transportation system, and would reframe broker transparency as a regulatory duty imposed on brokers, with the goal of deterring non-compliance. Specifically, the move would require brokers to keep electronic records, and require brokers to provide transaction records to motor carriers and shippers upon request and within 48 hours of that request.
Under federal regulatory processes, public comments on the move are due by January 21, 2025. However, transportation groups are not waiting on the sidelines to voice their opinions.
According to the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), an industry group representing the third-party logistics (3PL) industry, the potential rule is “misguided overreach” that fails to address the more pressing issue of freight fraud. In TIA’s view, broker transparency regulation is “obsolete and un-American,” and has no place in today’s “highly transparent” marketplace. “This proposal represents a misguided focus on outdated and unnecessary regulations rather than tackling issues that genuinely threaten the safety and efficiency of our nation’s supply chains,” TIA said.
But trucker trade group the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) welcomed the proposed rule, which it said would ensure that brokers finally play by the rules. “We appreciate that FMCSA incorporated input from our petition, including a requirement to make records available electronically and emphasizing that brokers have a duty to comply with regulations. As FMCSA noted, broker transparency is necessary for a fair, efficient transportation system, and is especially important to help carriers defend themselves against alleged claims on a shipment,” OOIDA President Todd Spencer said in a statement.
Additional pushback came from the Small Business in Transportation Coalition (SBTC), a network of transportation professionals in small business, which said the potential rule didn’t go far enough. “This is too little too late and is disappointing. It preserves the status quo, which caters to Big Broker & TIA. There is no question now that FMCSA has been captured by Big Broker. Truckers and carriers must now come out in droves and file comments in full force against this starting tomorrow,” SBTC executive director James Lamb said in a LinkedIn post.
The “series B” funding round was financed by an unnamed “strategic customer” as well as Teradyne Robotics Ventures, Toyota Ventures, Ranpak, Third Kind Venture Capital, One Madison Group, Hyperplane, Catapult Ventures, and others.
The fresh backing comes as Massachusetts-based Pickle reported a spate of third quarter orders, saying that six customers placed orders for over 30 production robots to deploy in the first half of 2025. The new orders include pilot conversions, existing customer expansions, and new customer adoption.
“Pickle is hitting its strides delivering innovation, development, commercial traction, and customer satisfaction. The company is building groundbreaking technology while executing on essential recurring parts of a successful business like field service and manufacturing management,” Omar Asali, Pickle board member and CEO of investor Ranpak, said in a release.
According to Pickle, its truck-unloading robot applies “Physical AI” technology to one of the most labor-intensive, physically demanding, and highest turnover work areas in logistics operations. The platform combines a powerful vision system with generative AI foundation models trained on millions of data points from real logistics and warehouse operations that enable Pickle’s robotic hardware platform to perform physical work at human-scale or better, the company says.
Bloomington, Indiana-based FTR said its Trucking Conditions Index declined in September to -2.47 from -1.39 in August as weakness in the principal freight dynamics – freight rates, utilization, and volume – offset lower fuel costs and slightly less unfavorable financing costs.
Those negative numbers are nothing new—the TCI has been positive only twice – in May and June of this year – since April 2022, but the group’s current forecast still envisions consistently positive readings through at least a two-year forecast horizon.
“Aside from a near-term boost mostly related to falling diesel prices, we have not changed our Trucking Conditions Index forecast significantly in the wake of the election,” Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said in a release. “The outlook continues to be more favorable for carriers than what they have experienced for well over two years. Our analysis indicates gradual but steadily rising capacity utilization leading to stronger freight rates in 2025.”
But FTR said its forecast remains unchanged. “Just like everyone else, we’ll be watching closely to see exactly what trade and other economic policies are implemented and over what time frame. Some freight disruptions are likely due to tariffs and other factors, but it is not yet clear that those actions will do more than shift the timing of activity,” Vise said.
The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. Combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health, a positive score represents good, optimistic conditions while a negative score shows the inverse.
Specifically, the new global average robot density has reached a record 162 units per 10,000 employees in 2023, which is more than double the mark of 74 units measured seven years ago.
Broken into geographical regions, the European Union has a robot density of 219 units per 10,000 employees, an increase of 5.2%, with Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Slovenia in the global top ten. Next, North America’s robot density is 197 units per 10,000 employees – up 4.2%. And Asia has a robot density of 182 units per 10,000 persons employed in manufacturing - an increase of 7.6%. The economies of Korea, Singapore, mainland China and Japan are among the top ten most automated countries.
Broken into individual countries, the U.S. ranked in 10th place in 2023, with a robot density of 295 units. Higher up on the list, the top five are:
The Republic of Korea, with 1,012 robot units, showing a 5% increase on average each year since 2018 thanks to its strong electronics and automotive industries.
Singapore had 770 robot units, in part because it is a small country with a very low number of employees in the manufacturing industry, so it can reach a high robot density with a relatively small operational stock.
China took third place in 2023, surpassing Germany and Japan with a mark of 470 robot units as the nation has managed to double its robot density within four years.
Germany ranks fourth with 429 robot units for a 5% CAGR since 2018.
Japan is in fifth place with 419 robot units, showing growth of 7% on average each year from 2018 to 2023.
Progress in generative AI (GenAI) is poised to impact business procurement processes through advancements in three areas—agentic reasoning, multimodality, and AI agents—according to Gartner Inc.
Those functions will redefine how procurement operates and significantly impact the agendas of chief procurement officers (CPOs). And 72% of procurement leaders are already prioritizing the integration of GenAI into their strategies, thus highlighting the recognition of its potential to drive significant improvements in efficiency and effectiveness, Gartner found in a survey conducted in July, 2024, with 258 global respondents.
Gartner defined the new functions as follows:
Agentic reasoning in GenAI allows for advanced decision-making processes that mimic human-like cognition. This capability will enable procurement functions to leverage GenAI to analyze complex scenarios and make informed decisions with greater accuracy and speed.
Multimodality refers to the ability of GenAI to process and integrate multiple forms of data, such as text, images, and audio. This will make GenAI more intuitively consumable to users and enhance procurement's ability to gather and analyze diverse information sources, leading to more comprehensive insights and better-informed strategies.
AI agents are autonomous systems that can perform tasks and make decisions on behalf of human operators. In procurement, these agents will automate procurement tasks and activities, freeing up human resources to focus on strategic initiatives, complex problem-solving and edge cases.
As CPOs look to maximize the value of GenAI in procurement, the study recommended three starting points: double down on data governance, develop and incorporate privacy standards into contracts, and increase procurement thresholds.
“These advancements will usher procurement into an era where the distance between ideas, insights, and actions will shorten rapidly,” Ryan Polk, senior director analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Procurement leaders who build their foundation now through a focus on data quality, privacy and risk management have the potential to reap new levels of productivity and strategic value from the technology."