A trade expert's take on what's brewing in Washington
In the contentious world of trade policymaking, says Washington lobbyist Peter Friedmann, nothing goes down without a fight. That includes the president's push to bolster exports and promote trade.
Contributing Editor Toby Gooley is a writer and editor specializing in supply chain, logistics, and material handling, and a lecturer at MIT's Center for Transportation & Logistics. She previously was Senior Editor at DC VELOCITY and Editor of DCV's sister publication, CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly. Prior to joining AGiLE Business Media in 2007, she spent 20 years at Logistics Management magazine as Managing Editor and Senior Editor covering international trade and transportation. Prior to that she was an export traffic manager for 10 years. She holds a B.A. in Asian Studies from Cornell University.
It's no surprise that Peter A. Friedmann's e-mail address is "OurManInDC." That handily sums up the role he plays on behalf of industry associations, individual companies, and local government agencies that depend on transportation and international trade.
Friedmann, who holds a law degree from the University of Washington, is well-known in transportation and trade circles as someone who understands both private industry and government—and is adept at getting the two to communicate with each other.
Even before he finished law school, Friedmann knew he wanted to get involved in policy rather than work in a traditional law practice. That's exactly what he did, signing on as legislative counsel to U.S. Senator Bob Packwood of Oregon in 1979 and serving as senior counsel to the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science & Transportation from 1980 to 1986. While working with the Senate, he helped to write and implement such influential laws as the Ocean Shipping Act of 1984, several Foreign Trade Zone amendments, and legislation for the Harbor Maintenance Fee and Trust Fund.
Friedmann now heads FBB Federal Relations, the government-relations arm of Portland, Ore.-based law firm Lindsay Hart Neil + Weigler. In that capacity, he represents the interests of individual companies, local governments, port authorities, and transportation- and trade-focused associations like the Coalition of New England Companies for Trade (CONECT).
Friedmann recently spoke with DC Velocity Managing Editor Toby Gooley about the issues currently on the table in Washington, why trade policy is an inherently touchy subject, and an unusual event he staged to help his clients get their message across to an elected official.
Q: Which organizations do you represent, and what responsibilities do you carry out on their behalf?
A: We represent many exporters and importers, both as individual companies and as members of some of the coalitions we've created. CONECT is one of them. Another is the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, which is very active in the ocean shipping arena. Then there are other association clients that are quite active in international trade, such as the Pacific Coast Council of Customs Brokers and Freight Forwarders and the Northern Border Customs Brokers Association. We also represent Indian tribes. And we help port authorities, transit agencies, state and local governments, and Indian tribes get funding for infrastructure, ranging from wastewater plants to ferry boats and roads.
We become the vehicle to communicate their interests to members of Congress. We organize visits like the upcoming CONECT mission to Washington and we help them draft their comments to make sure they're heard. We provide advice on developments we believe are coming long before they hit the pages of the press. So we provide a crystal ball and a "heads up" alert.
Q: Why is it important for companies engaged in international trade to know what's happening in Washington? A: So many issues that the federal government deals with can have a direct impact on the livelihoods of individuals and the businesses for which they work. It's often hard to keep track of what Congress and the executive branch are doing and when agencies like Customs promulgate new rules. Some rules are obscure, while others find their way onto the front page of The Wall Street Journal or The New York Times.
How Congress and the executive branch act on those issues directly affects many companies. They want to know about potential threats to their businesses as early as possible. For example, if Congress or the International Trade Commission imposes retaliatory and punitive duties on certain products from China, it could put an importer out of business. The sooner that importer knows what's being considered, the sooner it can plan for that possibility, such as adjusting sourcing. It can also get engaged by trying to impact, through lobbying, the decisions that Congress and federal agencies make.
Q: Congress and the White House have been preoccupied with the economy, various financial crises, and war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Is anyone in Washington paying attention to international trade right now, and if so, what are their top priorities? A: I think there's a recognition by the White House and by many in Congress that the way out of this recession is through exports. The president announced an export initiative whose goal is to double the volume of U.S. exports within five years. That's what he says; whether he is in fact pursuing policies that will make that happen is still unclear. But the early signs are encouraging.
The president is making an effort to push passage of a U.S.-South Korea free trade agreement. Many members of Congress, including most of his own party, may oppose it due to alliances with organized labor. But with the president taking a principled stand in favor of it and if he's willing to invest the kind of political capital that [former president] Clinton invested to get NAFTA through, that agreement would lead to a huge expansion of U.S. exports. We're talking $11 billion of U.S. exports. If we do sign the agreement, we'll gain an opportunity not only to expand exports but also to keep pace with the European Union, South America, and everyone else who wants to trade with South Korea. Conversely, if all of them are signing FTAs and we do not, we not only lose new opportunities for exports but also risk losing our current sales to South Korea to the EU and South America.
People are also paying attention to China's currency. As long as China maintains its currency below what the free market suggests it should be, China's exports will be cheaper relative to U.S.-made products. That's good for U.S. consumers of imports from China but bad for our agricultural and manufacturing sectors. That's one reason why legislators in both the House and the Senate are sponsoring legislation designed to force China to allow its currency to rise against the U.S. dollar or risk retaliatory anti-dumping duties against Chinese products.
Q: Why is international trade such a contentious subject? A: The complexity of all trade policy issues lies in the fact that there are winners and losers every time. There is no clear black and white; there are lots of grays. For example, it sounds like a good idea to increase the value of the Chinese yuan—a lower dollar would create more opportunities for our exports to China and other countries as our products become more affordable relative to the Chinese products. But many U.S.-manufactured goods include Chinese-made components. If those components become more expensive, so will the finished U.S.-assembled products. If our consumers can't afford to pay for higher-cost goods sourced in China, then declining sales will lead to job losses in the retail and logistics supply chain serving those imports. That's the two-edged sword of trade issues.
Even a question like whether the Generalized System of Preferences should be renewed [has two sides]. If it isn't renewed, it will create great dislocation for anyone who imports things like baskets from Indonesia or ceramics from Guatemala. It could impact a lot of things we take for granted, like the coffee mug you're holding. If that mug comes under GSP and GSP is not renewed, would it be manufactured here in the United States, or would it just become more expensive to import?
The point is, while it may be apparent to some of us that more trade is good for the economy, efforts to promote trade will be opposed by many entrenched labor interests and some domestic manufacturers. That's what makes this legislative stew we keep stirring so interesting.
Q: A number of countries (including the United States) and at least one intergovernmental body—the World Customs Organization (WCO)—have developed their own cargo security programs. Will these security regimes eventually be harmonized? A: We are already getting close to harmonized security standards. For example, we have the "24-hour rule," under which cargo manifest information has to be submitted to U.S. Customs 24 hours prior to the loading of a vessel at the foreign port. The European Union has implemented its own 24-hour rule, which took effect Jan. 1 of this year. ... Canada has a similar rule but had exempted products from the United States crossing the Canadian border. Now, they are ending that exemption. China has a very similar rule that is actually quite onerous and has not yet been fully implemented. And there's an effort at the WCO to create a single database so that export data submitted by an exporter becomes the import data for the customs agency overseas.
The real issue with all these security measures, in my view, is whether we're creating an industry devoted to providing security without continuously and vigorously assessing the impact of those security measures on commerce and on our lives generally. Every time we undertake a new security measure, not only are we adding a dollar cost but we're also adding costs through additional delays and reduced efficiency of trade processes. These costs become in themselves barriers to international trade.
You've heard of the military-industrial complex? I fear we are in a "security-industrial complex" now. The need for security must be balanced against trade facilitation, the capacity of taxpayers to pay for it, our way of life, and our civil liberties.
For example, we did an event for a member of the Senate, a very powerful chair of an important committee. We organized a group of that member's constituents, all small businesses. Some employed only two or three people; the largest employed maybe 50. These folks were importers and customs brokers concerned about possible retaliatory duties against certain imports from Vietnam and China. How could they get across the message that this would hurt their businesses?
We held a meeting on the floor of a warehouse in the senator's home state. We put picnic tables out on the floor, with equipment working and people doing their jobs, forklift drivers whizzing around and the noise of container doors opening up. The senator saw how many people were employed in this import business, and it gave him a better perspective on the needs of small business and the benefits of trade—which was much more effective than a visit from suit-wearing Washington lobbyists bearing campaign contributions.
That's what I really like to do: help small businesses cut through the noise of the federal bureaucracy and fundraisers. There's a little bit of a sense of David taking on Goliath—even though on occasion we also work with Goliath.
A move by federal regulators to reinforce requirements for broker transparency in freight transactions is stirring debate among transportation groups, after the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) published a “notice of proposed rulemaking” this week.
According to FMCSA, its draft rule would strive to make broker transparency more common, requiring greater sharing of the material information necessary for transportation industry parties to make informed business decisions and to support the efficient resolution of disputes.
The proposed rule titled “Transparency in Property Broker Transactions” would address what FMCSA calls the lack of access to information among shippers and motor carriers that can impact the fairness and efficiency of the transportation system, and would reframe broker transparency as a regulatory duty imposed on brokers, with the goal of deterring non-compliance. Specifically, the move would require brokers to keep electronic records, and require brokers to provide transaction records to motor carriers and shippers upon request and within 48 hours of that request.
Under federal regulatory processes, public comments on the move are due by January 21, 2025. However, transportation groups are not waiting on the sidelines to voice their opinions.
According to the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), an industry group representing the third-party logistics (3PL) industry, the potential rule is “misguided overreach” that fails to address the more pressing issue of freight fraud. In TIA’s view, broker transparency regulation is “obsolete and un-American,” and has no place in today’s “highly transparent” marketplace. “This proposal represents a misguided focus on outdated and unnecessary regulations rather than tackling issues that genuinely threaten the safety and efficiency of our nation’s supply chains,” TIA said.
But trucker trade group the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) welcomed the proposed rule, which it said would ensure that brokers finally play by the rules. “We appreciate that FMCSA incorporated input from our petition, including a requirement to make records available electronically and emphasizing that brokers have a duty to comply with regulations. As FMCSA noted, broker transparency is necessary for a fair, efficient transportation system, and is especially important to help carriers defend themselves against alleged claims on a shipment,” OOIDA President Todd Spencer said in a statement.
Additional pushback came from the Small Business in Transportation Coalition (SBTC), a network of transportation professionals in small business, which said the potential rule didn’t go far enough. “This is too little too late and is disappointing. It preserves the status quo, which caters to Big Broker & TIA. There is no question now that FMCSA has been captured by Big Broker. Truckers and carriers must now come out in droves and file comments in full force against this starting tomorrow,” SBTC executive director James Lamb said in a LinkedIn post.
Bloomington, Indiana-based FTR said its Trucking Conditions Index declined in September to -2.47 from -1.39 in August as weakness in the principal freight dynamics – freight rates, utilization, and volume – offset lower fuel costs and slightly less unfavorable financing costs.
Those negative numbers are nothing new—the TCI has been positive only twice – in May and June of this year – since April 2022, but the group’s current forecast still envisions consistently positive readings through at least a two-year forecast horizon.
“Aside from a near-term boost mostly related to falling diesel prices, we have not changed our Trucking Conditions Index forecast significantly in the wake of the election,” Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said in a release. “The outlook continues to be more favorable for carriers than what they have experienced for well over two years. Our analysis indicates gradual but steadily rising capacity utilization leading to stronger freight rates in 2025.”
But FTR said its forecast remains unchanged. “Just like everyone else, we’ll be watching closely to see exactly what trade and other economic policies are implemented and over what time frame. Some freight disruptions are likely due to tariffs and other factors, but it is not yet clear that those actions will do more than shift the timing of activity,” Vise said.
The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. Combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health, a positive score represents good, optimistic conditions while a negative score shows the inverse.
Specifically, the new global average robot density has reached a record 162 units per 10,000 employees in 2023, which is more than double the mark of 74 units measured seven years ago.
Broken into geographical regions, the European Union has a robot density of 219 units per 10,000 employees, an increase of 5.2%, with Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Slovenia in the global top ten. Next, North America’s robot density is 197 units per 10,000 employees – up 4.2%. And Asia has a robot density of 182 units per 10,000 persons employed in manufacturing - an increase of 7.6%. The economies of Korea, Singapore, mainland China and Japan are among the top ten most automated countries.
Broken into individual countries, the U.S. ranked in 10th place in 2023, with a robot density of 295 units. Higher up on the list, the top five are:
The Republic of Korea, with 1,012 robot units, showing a 5% increase on average each year since 2018 thanks to its strong electronics and automotive industries.
Singapore had 770 robot units, in part because it is a small country with a very low number of employees in the manufacturing industry, so it can reach a high robot density with a relatively small operational stock.
China took third place in 2023, surpassing Germany and Japan with a mark of 470 robot units as the nation has managed to double its robot density within four years.
Germany ranks fourth with 429 robot units for a 5% CAGR since 2018.
Japan is in fifth place with 419 robot units, showing growth of 7% on average each year from 2018 to 2023.
Progress in generative AI (GenAI) is poised to impact business procurement processes through advancements in three areas—agentic reasoning, multimodality, and AI agents—according to Gartner Inc.
Those functions will redefine how procurement operates and significantly impact the agendas of chief procurement officers (CPOs). And 72% of procurement leaders are already prioritizing the integration of GenAI into their strategies, thus highlighting the recognition of its potential to drive significant improvements in efficiency and effectiveness, Gartner found in a survey conducted in July, 2024, with 258 global respondents.
Gartner defined the new functions as follows:
Agentic reasoning in GenAI allows for advanced decision-making processes that mimic human-like cognition. This capability will enable procurement functions to leverage GenAI to analyze complex scenarios and make informed decisions with greater accuracy and speed.
Multimodality refers to the ability of GenAI to process and integrate multiple forms of data, such as text, images, and audio. This will make GenAI more intuitively consumable to users and enhance procurement's ability to gather and analyze diverse information sources, leading to more comprehensive insights and better-informed strategies.
AI agents are autonomous systems that can perform tasks and make decisions on behalf of human operators. In procurement, these agents will automate procurement tasks and activities, freeing up human resources to focus on strategic initiatives, complex problem-solving and edge cases.
As CPOs look to maximize the value of GenAI in procurement, the study recommended three starting points: double down on data governance, develop and incorporate privacy standards into contracts, and increase procurement thresholds.
“These advancements will usher procurement into an era where the distance between ideas, insights, and actions will shorten rapidly,” Ryan Polk, senior director analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Procurement leaders who build their foundation now through a focus on data quality, privacy and risk management have the potential to reap new levels of productivity and strategic value from the technology."
Businesses are cautiously optimistic as peak holiday shipping season draws near, with many anticipating year-over-year sales increases as they continue to battle challenging supply chain conditions.
That’s according to the DHL 2024 Peak Season Shipping Survey, released today by express shipping service provider DHL Express U.S. The company surveyed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to gauge their holiday business outlook compared to last year and found that a mix of optimism and “strategic caution” prevail ahead of this year’s peak.
Nearly half (48%) of the SMEs surveyed said they expect higher holiday sales compared to 2023, while 44% said they expect sales to remain on par with last year, and just 8% said they foresee a decline. Respondents said the main challenges to hitting those goals are supply chain problems (35%), inflation and fluctuating consumer demand (34%), staffing (16%), and inventory challenges (14%).
But respondents said they have strategies in place to tackle those issues. Many said they began preparing for holiday season earlier this year—with 45% saying they started planning in Q2 or earlier, up from 39% last year. Other strategies include expanding into international markets (35%) and leveraging holiday discounts (32%).
Sixty percent of respondents said they will prioritize personalized customer service as a way to enhance customer interactions and loyalty this year. Still others said they will invest in enhanced web and mobile experiences (23%) and eco-friendly practices (13%) to draw customers this holiday season.