A trade expert's take on what's brewing in Washington
In the contentious world of trade policymaking, says Washington lobbyist Peter Friedmann, nothing goes down without a fight. That includes the president's push to bolster exports and promote trade.
Contributing Editor Toby Gooley is a writer and editor specializing in supply chain, logistics, and material handling, and a lecturer at MIT's Center for Transportation & Logistics. She previously was Senior Editor at DC VELOCITY and Editor of DCV's sister publication, CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly. Prior to joining AGiLE Business Media in 2007, she spent 20 years at Logistics Management magazine as Managing Editor and Senior Editor covering international trade and transportation. Prior to that she was an export traffic manager for 10 years. She holds a B.A. in Asian Studies from Cornell University.
It's no surprise that Peter A. Friedmann's e-mail address is "OurManInDC." That handily sums up the role he plays on behalf of industry associations, individual companies, and local government agencies that depend on transportation and international trade.
Friedmann, who holds a law degree from the University of Washington, is well-known in transportation and trade circles as someone who understands both private industry and government—and is adept at getting the two to communicate with each other.
Even before he finished law school, Friedmann knew he wanted to get involved in policy rather than work in a traditional law practice. That's exactly what he did, signing on as legislative counsel to U.S. Senator Bob Packwood of Oregon in 1979 and serving as senior counsel to the U.S. Senate Committee on Commerce, Science & Transportation from 1980 to 1986. While working with the Senate, he helped to write and implement such influential laws as the Ocean Shipping Act of 1984, several Foreign Trade Zone amendments, and legislation for the Harbor Maintenance Fee and Trust Fund.
Friedmann now heads FBB Federal Relations, the government-relations arm of Portland, Ore.-based law firm Lindsay Hart Neil + Weigler. In that capacity, he represents the interests of individual companies, local governments, port authorities, and transportation- and trade-focused associations like the Coalition of New England Companies for Trade (CONECT).
Friedmann recently spoke with DC Velocity Managing Editor Toby Gooley about the issues currently on the table in Washington, why trade policy is an inherently touchy subject, and an unusual event he staged to help his clients get their message across to an elected official.
Q: Which organizations do you represent, and what responsibilities do you carry out on their behalf?
A: We represent many exporters and importers, both as individual companies and as members of some of the coalitions we've created. CONECT is one of them. Another is the Agriculture Transportation Coalition, which is very active in the ocean shipping arena. Then there are other association clients that are quite active in international trade, such as the Pacific Coast Council of Customs Brokers and Freight Forwarders and the Northern Border Customs Brokers Association. We also represent Indian tribes. And we help port authorities, transit agencies, state and local governments, and Indian tribes get funding for infrastructure, ranging from wastewater plants to ferry boats and roads.
We become the vehicle to communicate their interests to members of Congress. We organize visits like the upcoming CONECT mission to Washington and we help them draft their comments to make sure they're heard. We provide advice on developments we believe are coming long before they hit the pages of the press. So we provide a crystal ball and a "heads up" alert.
Q: Why is it important for companies engaged in international trade to know what's happening in Washington? A: So many issues that the federal government deals with can have a direct impact on the livelihoods of individuals and the businesses for which they work. It's often hard to keep track of what Congress and the executive branch are doing and when agencies like Customs promulgate new rules. Some rules are obscure, while others find their way onto the front page of The Wall Street Journal or The New York Times.
How Congress and the executive branch act on those issues directly affects many companies. They want to know about potential threats to their businesses as early as possible. For example, if Congress or the International Trade Commission imposes retaliatory and punitive duties on certain products from China, it could put an importer out of business. The sooner that importer knows what's being considered, the sooner it can plan for that possibility, such as adjusting sourcing. It can also get engaged by trying to impact, through lobbying, the decisions that Congress and federal agencies make.
Q: Congress and the White House have been preoccupied with the economy, various financial crises, and war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Is anyone in Washington paying attention to international trade right now, and if so, what are their top priorities? A: I think there's a recognition by the White House and by many in Congress that the way out of this recession is through exports. The president announced an export initiative whose goal is to double the volume of U.S. exports within five years. That's what he says; whether he is in fact pursuing policies that will make that happen is still unclear. But the early signs are encouraging.
The president is making an effort to push passage of a U.S.-South Korea free trade agreement. Many members of Congress, including most of his own party, may oppose it due to alliances with organized labor. But with the president taking a principled stand in favor of it and if he's willing to invest the kind of political capital that [former president] Clinton invested to get NAFTA through, that agreement would lead to a huge expansion of U.S. exports. We're talking $11 billion of U.S. exports. If we do sign the agreement, we'll gain an opportunity not only to expand exports but also to keep pace with the European Union, South America, and everyone else who wants to trade with South Korea. Conversely, if all of them are signing FTAs and we do not, we not only lose new opportunities for exports but also risk losing our current sales to South Korea to the EU and South America.
People are also paying attention to China's currency. As long as China maintains its currency below what the free market suggests it should be, China's exports will be cheaper relative to U.S.-made products. That's good for U.S. consumers of imports from China but bad for our agricultural and manufacturing sectors. That's one reason why legislators in both the House and the Senate are sponsoring legislation designed to force China to allow its currency to rise against the U.S. dollar or risk retaliatory anti-dumping duties against Chinese products.
Q: Why is international trade such a contentious subject? A: The complexity of all trade policy issues lies in the fact that there are winners and losers every time. There is no clear black and white; there are lots of grays. For example, it sounds like a good idea to increase the value of the Chinese yuan—a lower dollar would create more opportunities for our exports to China and other countries as our products become more affordable relative to the Chinese products. But many U.S.-manufactured goods include Chinese-made components. If those components become more expensive, so will the finished U.S.-assembled products. If our consumers can't afford to pay for higher-cost goods sourced in China, then declining sales will lead to job losses in the retail and logistics supply chain serving those imports. That's the two-edged sword of trade issues.
Even a question like whether the Generalized System of Preferences should be renewed [has two sides]. If it isn't renewed, it will create great dislocation for anyone who imports things like baskets from Indonesia or ceramics from Guatemala. It could impact a lot of things we take for granted, like the coffee mug you're holding. If that mug comes under GSP and GSP is not renewed, would it be manufactured here in the United States, or would it just become more expensive to import?
The point is, while it may be apparent to some of us that more trade is good for the economy, efforts to promote trade will be opposed by many entrenched labor interests and some domestic manufacturers. That's what makes this legislative stew we keep stirring so interesting.
Q: A number of countries (including the United States) and at least one intergovernmental body—the World Customs Organization (WCO)—have developed their own cargo security programs. Will these security regimes eventually be harmonized? A: We are already getting close to harmonized security standards. For example, we have the "24-hour rule," under which cargo manifest information has to be submitted to U.S. Customs 24 hours prior to the loading of a vessel at the foreign port. The European Union has implemented its own 24-hour rule, which took effect Jan. 1 of this year. ... Canada has a similar rule but had exempted products from the United States crossing the Canadian border. Now, they are ending that exemption. China has a very similar rule that is actually quite onerous and has not yet been fully implemented. And there's an effort at the WCO to create a single database so that export data submitted by an exporter becomes the import data for the customs agency overseas.
The real issue with all these security measures, in my view, is whether we're creating an industry devoted to providing security without continuously and vigorously assessing the impact of those security measures on commerce and on our lives generally. Every time we undertake a new security measure, not only are we adding a dollar cost but we're also adding costs through additional delays and reduced efficiency of trade processes. These costs become in themselves barriers to international trade.
You've heard of the military-industrial complex? I fear we are in a "security-industrial complex" now. The need for security must be balanced against trade facilitation, the capacity of taxpayers to pay for it, our way of life, and our civil liberties.
For example, we did an event for a member of the Senate, a very powerful chair of an important committee. We organized a group of that member's constituents, all small businesses. Some employed only two or three people; the largest employed maybe 50. These folks were importers and customs brokers concerned about possible retaliatory duties against certain imports from Vietnam and China. How could they get across the message that this would hurt their businesses?
We held a meeting on the floor of a warehouse in the senator's home state. We put picnic tables out on the floor, with equipment working and people doing their jobs, forklift drivers whizzing around and the noise of container doors opening up. The senator saw how many people were employed in this import business, and it gave him a better perspective on the needs of small business and the benefits of trade—which was much more effective than a visit from suit-wearing Washington lobbyists bearing campaign contributions.
That's what I really like to do: help small businesses cut through the noise of the federal bureaucracy and fundraisers. There's a little bit of a sense of David taking on Goliath—even though on occasion we also work with Goliath.
Congestion on U.S. highways is costing the trucking industry big, according to research from the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), released today.
The group found that traffic congestion on U.S. highways added $108.8 billion in costs to the trucking industry in 2022, a record high. The information comes from ATRI’s Cost of Congestion study, which is part of the organization’s ongoing highway performance measurement research.
Total hours of congestion fell slightly compared to 2021 due to softening freight market conditions, but the cost of operating a truck increased at a much higher rate, according to the research. As a result, the overall cost of congestion increased by 15% year-over-year—a level equivalent to more than 430,000 commercial truck drivers sitting idle for one work year and an average cost of $7,588 for every registered combination truck.
The analysis also identified metropolitan delays and related impacts, showing that the top 10 most-congested states each experienced added costs of more than $8 billion. That list was led by Texas, at $9.17 billion in added costs; California, at $8.77 billion; and Florida, $8.44 billion. Rounding out the top 10 list were New York, Georgia, New Jersey, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, and Tennessee. Combined, the top 10 states account for more than half of the trucking industry’s congestion costs nationwide—52%, according to the research.
The metro areas with the highest congestion costs include New York City, $6.68 billion; Miami, $3.2 billion; and Chicago, $3.14 billion.
ATRI’s analysis also found that the trucking industry wasted more than 6.4 billion gallons of diesel fuel in 2022 due to congestion, resulting in additional fuel costs of $32.1 billion.
ATRI used a combination of data sources, including its truck GPS database and Operational Costs study benchmarks, to calculate the impacts of trucking delays on major U.S. roadways.
Hyster-Yale Materials Handling today announced its plans to fulfill the domestic manufacturing requirements of the Build America, Buy America (BABA) Act for certain portions of its lineup of forklift trucks and container handling equipment.
That means the Greenville, North Carolina-based company now plans to expand its existing American manufacturing with a targeted set of high-capacity models, including electric options, that align with the needs of infrastructure projects subject to BABA requirements. The company’s plans include determining the optimal production location in the United States, strategically expanding sourcing agreements to meet local material requirements, and further developing electric power options for high-capacity equipment.
As a part of the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the BABA Act aims to increase the use of American-made materials in federally funded infrastructure projects across the U.S., Hyster-Yale says. It was enacted as part of a broader effort to boost domestic manufacturing and economic growth, and mandates that federal dollars allocated to infrastructure – such as roads, bridges, ports and public transit systems – must prioritize materials produced in the USA, including critical items like steel, iron and various construction materials.
Hyster-Yale’s footprint in the U.S. is spread across 10 locations, including three manufacturing facilities.
“Our leadership is fully invested in meeting the needs of businesses that require BABA-compliant material handling solutions,” Tony Salgado, Hyster-Yale’s chief operating officer, said in a release. “We are working to partner with our key domestic suppliers, as well as identifying how best to leverage our own American manufacturing footprint to deliver a competitive solution for our customers and stakeholders. But beyond mere compliance, and in line with the many areas of our business where we are evolving to better support our customers, our commitment remains steadfast. We are dedicated to delivering industry-leading standards in design, durability and performance — qualities that have become synonymous with our brands worldwide and that our customers have come to rely on and expect.”
In a separate move, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) also gave its approval for the state to advance its Heavy-Duty Omnibus Rule, which is crafted to significantly reduce smog-forming nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from new heavy-duty, diesel-powered trucks.
Both rules are intended to deliver health benefits to California citizens affected by vehicle pollution, according to the environmental group Earthjustice. If the state gets federal approval for the final steps to become law, the rules mean that cars on the road in California will largely be zero-emissions a generation from now in the 2050s, accounting for the average vehicle lifespan of vehicles with internal combustion engine (ICE) power sold before that 2035 date.
“This might read like checking a bureaucratic box, but EPA’s approval is a critical step forward in protecting our lungs from pollution and our wallets from the expenses of combustion fuels,” Paul Cort, director of Earthjustice’s Right To Zero campaign, said in a release. “The gradual shift in car sales to zero-emissions models will cut smog and household costs while growing California’s clean energy workforce. Cutting truck pollution will help clear our skies of smog. EPA should now approve the remaining authorization requests from California to allow the state to clean its air and protect its residents.”
However, the truck drivers' industry group Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) pushed back against the federal decision allowing the Omnibus Low-NOx rule to advance. "The Omnibus Low-NOx waiver for California calls into question the policymaking process under the Biden administration's EPA. Purposefully injecting uncertainty into a $588 billion American industry is bad for our economy and makes no meaningful progress towards purported environmental goals," (OOIDA) President Todd Spencer said in a release. "EPA's credibility outside of radical environmental circles would have been better served by working with regulated industries rather than ramming through last-minute special interest favors. We look forward to working with the Trump administration's EPA in good faith towards achievable environmental outcomes.”
Editor's note:This article was revised on December 18 to add reaction from OOIDA.
A Canadian startup that provides AI-powered logistics solutions has gained $5.5 million in seed funding to support its concept of creating a digital platform for global trade, according to Toronto-based Starboard.
The round was led by Eclipse, with participation from previous backers Garuda Ventures and Everywhere Ventures. The firm says it will use its new backing to expand its engineering team in Toronto and accelerate its AI-driven product development to simplify supply chain complexities.
According to Starboard, the logistics industry is under immense pressure to adapt to the growing complexity of global trade, which has hit recent hurdles such as the strike at U.S. east and gulf coast ports. That situation calls for innovative solutions to streamline operations and reduce costs for operators.
As a potential solution, Starboard offers its flagship product, which it defines as an AI-based transportation management system (TMS) and rate management system that helps mid-sized freight forwarders operate more efficiently and win more business. More broadly, Starboard says it is building the virtual infrastructure for global trade, allowing freight companies to leverage AI and machine learning to optimize operations such as processing shipments in real time, reconciling invoices, and following up on payments.
"This investment is a pivotal step in our mission to unlock the power of AI for our customers," said Sumeet Trehan, Co-Founder and CEO of Starboard. "Global trade has long been plagued by inefficiencies that drive up costs and reduce competitiveness. Our platform is designed to empower SMB freight forwarders—the backbone of more than $20 trillion in global trade and $1 trillion in logistics spend—with the tools they need to thrive in this complex ecosystem."
Global trade will see a moderate rebound in 2025, likely growing by 3.6% in volume terms, helped by companies restocking and households renewing purchases of durable goods while reducing spending on services, according to a forecast from trade credit insurer Allianz Trade.
The end of the year for 2024 will also likely be supported by companies rushing to ship goods in anticipation of the higher tariffs likely to be imposed by the coming Trump administration, and other potential disruptions in the coming quarters, the report said.
However, that tailwind for global trade will likely shift to a headwind once the effects of a renewed but contained trade war are felt from the second half of 2025 and in full in 2026. As a result, Allianz Trade has throttled back its predictions, saying that global trade in volume will grow by 2.8% in 2025 (reduced by 0.2 percentage points vs. its previous forecast) and 2.3% in 2026 (reduced by 0.5 percentage points).
The same logic applies to Allianz Trade’s forecast for export prices in U.S. dollars, which the firm has now revised downward to predict growth reaching 2.3% in 2025 (reduced by 1.7 percentage points) and 4.1% in 2026 (reduced by 0.8 percentage points).
In the meantime, the rush to frontload imports into the U.S. is giving freight carriers an early Christmas present. According to Allianz Trade, data released last week showed Chinese exports rising by a robust 6.7% y/y in November. And imports of some consumer goods that have been threatened with a likely 25% tariff under the new Trump administration have outperformed even more, growing by nearly 20% y/y on average between July and September.