An insider's take on the great highway debate: interview with Mortimer L. Downey III
When it comes to handicapping the upcoming battle over highway spending, veteran public servant turned consultant Mort Downey may have the ultimate inside track.
Mitch Mac Donald has more than 30 years of experience in both the newspaper and magazine businesses. He has covered the logistics and supply chain fields since 1988. Twice named one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the U.S., he has served in a multitude of editorial and publishing roles. The leading force behind the launch of Supply Chain Management Review, he was that brand's founding publisher and editorial director from 1997 to 2000. Additionally, he has served as news editor, chief editor, publisher and editorial director of Logistics Management, as well as publisher of Modern Materials Handling. Mitch is also the president and CEO of Agile Business Media, LLC, the parent company of DC VELOCITY and CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly.
The nation is gearing up for one of the most critical periods in the history of U.S. infrastructure. And sitting in the sweet spot where influence and investment collide is one of the most knowledgeable authorities on infrastructure of the last 25 years: Mortimer L. Downey III.
Downey is a senior adviser to Parsons Brinckerhoff, providing advisory and management consulting services to the firm and its clients, which include public and private entities, developers, financiers, and builders of infrastructure projects worldwide.
Although he works in the private sector today, Downey has had a long career in public service. From 1993 to 2001, he served as deputy secretary of transportation, the longest-serving individual to ever hold the Department of Transportation's number-two job. As its chief operating officer, he developed the agency's highly regarded strategic and performance plans and had program responsibilities for operations, regulation, and investments in land, sea, air, and space transportation. His reputation is such that in 2008, he was named to the transportation policy committee for the Obama presidential campaign, and during the presidential transition was appointed leader of the DOT's agency review team.
Previously, Downey was for 12 years the executive director and chief financial officer of the New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), the nation's largest independent public authority.
Downey has received numerous professional awards, including election to the National Academy of Public Administration, where he has served as chairman of the board of directors. He is a member of the board of directors of the Eno Transportation Foundation and has served on the National Academy of Science's Committee on Science & Technology Countermeasures to Terrorism. He has served on a DOT special panel to report on the safety impact of Mexican truck operations in the United States, he recently joined the Industry Leaders Council of the American Society of Civil Engineers, and he has served on the board of directors of the National Railroad Passenger Corp. (Amtrak).
Downey spoke recently with DC Velocity Group Editorial Director Mitch Mac Donald about his career, the nation's "vintage" transportation policy, and why he thinks freight interests might finally get a voice in the next round of transportation policy discussions.
Q: How did you end up in your current role as it relates to transportation and logistics?
A: I have been in the transportation world now for a little over 50 years in one role or another, a lot of it in the public transportation area in New York. I was executive director of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, but I served during the Clinton administration as deputy secretary at U.S. DOT and got a much better appreciation of the goods movement side of the transportation world. I have kept part of my brain focused on that since I left DOT and entered consulting.
Q: You served on the transportation policy committee for the Obama presidential campaign and then worked as part of the DOT agency review team during the transition. What can you tell us about your work there? A: It was an interesting experience revisiting federal policy and the Department of Transportation. During the campaign, the Obama folks had a very active group exchanging ideas and throwing in ideas about transportation policy. They published several fact sheets and working papers, more than have come out of any other presidential campaign that I can recall. I was fortunate enough to be asked to head up the DOT transition team.
Around this time last year, we began to organize that effort. Immediately after election day, we dropped everything and spent the next couple of months at DOT meetings with the career staff, meeting with virtually every interest group in the world who cared about transportation policy, and preparing documents that were handed over to the incoming secretary, Ray LaHood, when he came on board. We also had the opportunity to brief him. It was a great chance to re-immerse in the policy issues and throw in my two cents' worth on some of the directions. His team is off and running now, and I think the subject of goods movement and logistics is going to be an important part of its policy thinking.
Q: It has long been argued that freight "needs a seat at the table" when national transportation policy is developed, but that has yet to come to pass. What, in your view, makes things different this time around? A: The two catch phrases one usually hears are "freight deserves a seat at the table" and "freight doesn't vote." But the developments over the last eight or 10 years are changing things in a positive way. In the last round of transportation legislation —the so-called SAFETEA-LU bill, which is now mercifully expiring —there was an effort to bring freight into the picture, and those of us who worked on it felt it was moderately successful.
The other thing that came out of that legislation was the naming of two study commissions to prepare policy views in time for the next round of legislation because Congress couldn't agree on a single charter. We had a commission devoted to policy and program development, and a separate commission that looked at financial issues.
I think from a freight standpoint, the policy commission was the more interesting one. Out of a combination of presidential and congressional appointees, that commission wound up with some people who were articulate on these subjects, including [Burlington Northern Santa Fe CEO] Matt Rose. They continued to follow up individually on the implementation of their recommendations and made a very strong case for a better focus on freight. They crystallized the connection between freight and the national economy, and the importance of addressing freight capacity issues as part of the policy debate.
I am not too optimistic that we will see anything but a short-term extension [of the current highway reauthorization bill]. But the major piece of work has been done, which is the development of surface transportation legislation from the House. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee has picked up on a lot of our recommendations regarding ways of bringing freight to the table.
Q: This is consistent with the comment I've heard you make that the objective here is to avoid new authorization of old thinking. A: Right. The House in its wisdom has really picked up on that, and Jim Oberstar [chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee] refers to it as an authorization bill, not a reauthorization. He has very significantly changed the way programs will be delivered. He hasn't come up with a secret formula for paying for it yet. That remains an open issue, but he has really begun to change things around and he has created within the program structure a nationwide freight program operated through the states. He has also opened the door to federal support for important intermodal improvement projects in the freight arena.
Q: How can the freight community be confident that money appropriated for freight will be spent on freight-only projects? A: I think the discussion about freight fees as well as a freight trust fund, which is not currently in Oberstar's legislation because that is not his jurisdiction, is an effort to assure the freight community that if they agree that improvements are needed and if they pay in, the funds will be segregated and used for that purpose.
The thinking is that if there is an outreach to that source of money, the funds will not simply be another bucket in the highway trust fund but instead be dedicated to good solid freight projects. Now you get into some nuances there. The truckers, for example, are very strong advocates for investment that would improve trucking. They actually are supportive right now of a diesel fuel tax increase. Not very many people in Washington are.
Q: At a recent conference, you noted the need for the nation to align its trade and transportation policies, but you added that while our trade policy is aimed at 2009, our transportation policy is vintage 1956. Can you elaborate? A: That comes from thinking about how U.S. trade policy has developed, the fact that we are now much more involved in foreign commerce, both oceangoing commerce with the other continents and NAFTA-related trade. It is a very different world from where the United States was when the last significant investments were made —basically, the establishment of the Eisenhower interstate highway system.
But we haven't caught up. We don't necessarily frame the debate in the right terms when we make judgments. For example, we agreed that NAFTA should go forward, but we didn't really debate how to make that work. So here we are, still fighting over access for Mexican trucks to U.S. highways. There are good arguments on both sides, but we really should have thought that through.
What strikes me, and it is brought home every time I hear about it, is that our neighbor to the north gets it. In Canada, questions surrounding foreign trade and the handling of import and export shipments are an important part of national policy discussions. If you look at the steps the Canadians have taken to beef up the capability of [the Port of] Prince Rupert and to beef up the capability of Halifax, they are doing things that we have yet to really contemplate, and we are going to be handed our lunch.
Q: Wouldn't it be interesting if the two primary maritime gateways to North America were not in the United States? A: Yes, or the three primary gateways. The Mexicans are looking to develop their facilities as well. I think much of the thinking both from Canada and Mexico is driven by how they handle their imports. I think we also have to figure out how we keep ourselves in the export business with something other than scrap paper.
Q: Any closing thoughts? A: There are some important issues here. I believe we will see in the next six to 18 months a piece of legislation that shapes what goes on for probably the next 20 years. That is usually the pattern when one of these bills passes —it stays in place for a long time. This is an important round of policy discussions. I hope those who care about freight issues will find a way to be participants in that discussion.
A move by federal regulators to reinforce requirements for broker transparency in freight transactions is stirring debate among transportation groups, after the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) published a “notice of proposed rulemaking” this week.
According to FMCSA, its draft rule would strive to make broker transparency more common, requiring greater sharing of the material information necessary for transportation industry parties to make informed business decisions and to support the efficient resolution of disputes.
The proposed rule titled “Transparency in Property Broker Transactions” would address what FMCSA calls the lack of access to information among shippers and motor carriers that can impact the fairness and efficiency of the transportation system, and would reframe broker transparency as a regulatory duty imposed on brokers, with the goal of deterring non-compliance. Specifically, the move would require brokers to keep electronic records, and require brokers to provide transaction records to motor carriers and shippers upon request and within 48 hours of that request.
Under federal regulatory processes, public comments on the move are due by January 21, 2025. However, transportation groups are not waiting on the sidelines to voice their opinions.
According to the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), an industry group representing the third-party logistics (3PL) industry, the potential rule is “misguided overreach” that fails to address the more pressing issue of freight fraud. In TIA’s view, broker transparency regulation is “obsolete and un-American,” and has no place in today’s “highly transparent” marketplace. “This proposal represents a misguided focus on outdated and unnecessary regulations rather than tackling issues that genuinely threaten the safety and efficiency of our nation’s supply chains,” TIA said.
But trucker trade group the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) welcomed the proposed rule, which it said would ensure that brokers finally play by the rules. “We appreciate that FMCSA incorporated input from our petition, including a requirement to make records available electronically and emphasizing that brokers have a duty to comply with regulations. As FMCSA noted, broker transparency is necessary for a fair, efficient transportation system, and is especially important to help carriers defend themselves against alleged claims on a shipment,” OOIDA President Todd Spencer said in a statement.
Additional pushback came from the Small Business in Transportation Coalition (SBTC), a network of transportation professionals in small business, which said the potential rule didn’t go far enough. “This is too little too late and is disappointing. It preserves the status quo, which caters to Big Broker & TIA. There is no question now that FMCSA has been captured by Big Broker. Truckers and carriers must now come out in droves and file comments in full force against this starting tomorrow,” SBTC executive director James Lamb said in a LinkedIn post.
The “series B” funding round was financed by an unnamed “strategic customer” as well as Teradyne Robotics Ventures, Toyota Ventures, Ranpak, Third Kind Venture Capital, One Madison Group, Hyperplane, Catapult Ventures, and others.
The fresh backing comes as Massachusetts-based Pickle reported a spate of third quarter orders, saying that six customers placed orders for over 30 production robots to deploy in the first half of 2025. The new orders include pilot conversions, existing customer expansions, and new customer adoption.
“Pickle is hitting its strides delivering innovation, development, commercial traction, and customer satisfaction. The company is building groundbreaking technology while executing on essential recurring parts of a successful business like field service and manufacturing management,” Omar Asali, Pickle board member and CEO of investor Ranpak, said in a release.
According to Pickle, its truck-unloading robot applies “Physical AI” technology to one of the most labor-intensive, physically demanding, and highest turnover work areas in logistics operations. The platform combines a powerful vision system with generative AI foundation models trained on millions of data points from real logistics and warehouse operations that enable Pickle’s robotic hardware platform to perform physical work at human-scale or better, the company says.
Bloomington, Indiana-based FTR said its Trucking Conditions Index declined in September to -2.47 from -1.39 in August as weakness in the principal freight dynamics – freight rates, utilization, and volume – offset lower fuel costs and slightly less unfavorable financing costs.
Those negative numbers are nothing new—the TCI has been positive only twice – in May and June of this year – since April 2022, but the group’s current forecast still envisions consistently positive readings through at least a two-year forecast horizon.
“Aside from a near-term boost mostly related to falling diesel prices, we have not changed our Trucking Conditions Index forecast significantly in the wake of the election,” Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said in a release. “The outlook continues to be more favorable for carriers than what they have experienced for well over two years. Our analysis indicates gradual but steadily rising capacity utilization leading to stronger freight rates in 2025.”
But FTR said its forecast remains unchanged. “Just like everyone else, we’ll be watching closely to see exactly what trade and other economic policies are implemented and over what time frame. Some freight disruptions are likely due to tariffs and other factors, but it is not yet clear that those actions will do more than shift the timing of activity,” Vise said.
The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. Combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health, a positive score represents good, optimistic conditions while a negative score shows the inverse.
Specifically, the new global average robot density has reached a record 162 units per 10,000 employees in 2023, which is more than double the mark of 74 units measured seven years ago.
Broken into geographical regions, the European Union has a robot density of 219 units per 10,000 employees, an increase of 5.2%, with Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Slovenia in the global top ten. Next, North America’s robot density is 197 units per 10,000 employees – up 4.2%. And Asia has a robot density of 182 units per 10,000 persons employed in manufacturing - an increase of 7.6%. The economies of Korea, Singapore, mainland China and Japan are among the top ten most automated countries.
Broken into individual countries, the U.S. ranked in 10th place in 2023, with a robot density of 295 units. Higher up on the list, the top five are:
The Republic of Korea, with 1,012 robot units, showing a 5% increase on average each year since 2018 thanks to its strong electronics and automotive industries.
Singapore had 770 robot units, in part because it is a small country with a very low number of employees in the manufacturing industry, so it can reach a high robot density with a relatively small operational stock.
China took third place in 2023, surpassing Germany and Japan with a mark of 470 robot units as the nation has managed to double its robot density within four years.
Germany ranks fourth with 429 robot units for a 5% CAGR since 2018.
Japan is in fifth place with 419 robot units, showing growth of 7% on average each year from 2018 to 2023.
Progress in generative AI (GenAI) is poised to impact business procurement processes through advancements in three areas—agentic reasoning, multimodality, and AI agents—according to Gartner Inc.
Those functions will redefine how procurement operates and significantly impact the agendas of chief procurement officers (CPOs). And 72% of procurement leaders are already prioritizing the integration of GenAI into their strategies, thus highlighting the recognition of its potential to drive significant improvements in efficiency and effectiveness, Gartner found in a survey conducted in July, 2024, with 258 global respondents.
Gartner defined the new functions as follows:
Agentic reasoning in GenAI allows for advanced decision-making processes that mimic human-like cognition. This capability will enable procurement functions to leverage GenAI to analyze complex scenarios and make informed decisions with greater accuracy and speed.
Multimodality refers to the ability of GenAI to process and integrate multiple forms of data, such as text, images, and audio. This will make GenAI more intuitively consumable to users and enhance procurement's ability to gather and analyze diverse information sources, leading to more comprehensive insights and better-informed strategies.
AI agents are autonomous systems that can perform tasks and make decisions on behalf of human operators. In procurement, these agents will automate procurement tasks and activities, freeing up human resources to focus on strategic initiatives, complex problem-solving and edge cases.
As CPOs look to maximize the value of GenAI in procurement, the study recommended three starting points: double down on data governance, develop and incorporate privacy standards into contracts, and increase procurement thresholds.
“These advancements will usher procurement into an era where the distance between ideas, insights, and actions will shorten rapidly,” Ryan Polk, senior director analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Procurement leaders who build their foundation now through a focus on data quality, privacy and risk management have the potential to reap new levels of productivity and strategic value from the technology."