supply chains can promote peace: a postscript and a thank you note
Last fall, DC VELOCITY Editor at Large Steve Geary wrote about the role of supply chain initiatives in helping rebuild the Iraqi economy ("can a supply chain promote peace?" November 2007). At the time, Geary was deployed in Iraq, working as a member of a team charged with promoting employment in the war-torn nation. In this follow-up article, he looks at developments in that initiative in the months since he filed his initial report.
Steve Geary is adjunct faculty at the University of Tennessee's Haaslam College of Business and is a lecturer at The Gordon Institute at Tufts University. He is the President of the Supply Chain Visions family of companies, consultancies that work across the government sector. Steve is a contributing editor at DC Velocity, and editor-at-large for CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly.
Editor's note: Last fall, DC VELOCITY Editor at Large Steve Geary wrote about the role of supply chain initiatives in helping rebuild the Iraqi economy ("can a supply chain promote peace?" November 2007). At the time, Geary was deployed in Iraq, working as a member of a team charged with promoting employment in the war-torn nation. In this follow-up article, he looks at developments in that initiative in the months since he filed his initial report.
In a November 2007 story, I asked the question, "Can a supply chain promote peace?" One of the tricks of the trade in writing a story in the face of incomplete facts is to tee up a question, instead of making a statement. Last year, the supply chain sure looked promising as a tool to promote stability in Iraq, but the jury was still out.
Well, fast forward to the summer of 2008, and there's no need to be tentative. We can be declarative. Rebuilding an industrial supply chain promotes peace.
I've spent a lot of time in Iraq the past couple of years, working in support of some truly committed people, both Iraqi and American. We've been trying to get a once-massive national economic engine running again. While at this point it might not yet be firing on all cylinders, it sure is running.
In July, I received a thank you note from an Iraqi friend, a senior leader in his community. It was addressed to me, but it really was meant for the American people. In order to understand that note, you have to understand some of what has happened over the last two years in a city named Iskandariyah, near the Euphrates River, about 25 miles south of Baghdad.
A fact-finding mission
In the summer of 2006, a U.S. delegation traveled to Iskandariyah. We toured the State Company for Automotive Industries (SCAI) in Iskandariyah and found a massive derelict manufacturing facility employing a few hundred people. Just a mile down the road was a sister facility, the State Company for Mechanical Industries (SCMI). In between the two was a bombed out pile of rubble that had been the Hateen munitions complex. Once upon a time, these three facilities were among the industrial jewels of Iraq. At its peak, the Iskandariyah Industrial Complex employed over 25,000 people. In the summer of 2006, there were less than a thousand.
The delegation was there to begin exploring ways to revitalize SCAI and SCMI to promote stability in one of the most dangerous areas of Iraq, dubbed the "Triangle of Death" by the press. This was not a journey for the faint of heart: It required full battle gear, Apache helicopters overhead, and U.S. combat troops deployed and at the ready securing the perimeter.
"We need to put the angry young men to work," declared Lt. Gen. Peter W. Chiarelli, then the commanding general of the Multi-National Corps, Iraq. "One of the key hindrances to us establishing stability in Iraq is the failure to get the economy going. A relatively small decrease in unemployment will have a very serious effect on the level of sectarian killing going on."
The plan of action
From that simple premise almost two years ago came a comprehensive effort to include a business solution in the plan for that region of Iraq. Today, thanks to efforts by the government of Iraq, the Army's Task Force Marne, and a Defense Department Task Force called the Task Force to Improve Business and Stability Operations-Iraq, along with judicious support from the U.S. government, Iskandariyah is a resounding success. It's just that nobody in the United States knows about it.
During the worst days, explosive devices detonated outside the gates of SCAI, Al Qaeda mortar teams worked the area, support personnel from the Coalition taking the fiveminute drive from SCMI to SCAI required an armored convoy, and small arms fire could often be heard. Contrast that to March of this year, when Sens. John McCain, Lindsey Graham, and Joseph Lieberman took a stroll through the market in the center of town—without body armor.
SCMI now assembles New Holland Tractors for the domestic market in Iraq. Just this past month, SCAI sold 25 over-the-road tractor/trailer sets, with substantial manufactured content from SCAI, to a Kuwaiti company, a deal valued at over $2,000,000. In addition, an international automotive company is considering resuming a joint venture with SCAI that was last active before the First Gulf War.
The Iskandariyah Industrial Complex is building prefabricated housing units, oil refineries, buses, construction equipment, greenhouses, and other things too numerous to list. There are 1,500 students enrolled at a recently refurbished vocational-technical training center. And on June 1, SCAI and SCMI reached a critical milestone: On that date, they had 10,000 employees back at work.
The supply chain's role
Iskandariyah is a case study in the successful application of counter-insurgency approaches championed by Gen. Petraeus, the overall commander in Iraq. Because of the nature of insurgencies, lines between combat and non-combat operations are blurred, and economic lines of operation are a critical issue to the warfighter. It may not be called "supply chain" by the military in the field, but the underlying concept is there. Business solutions must be pulled forward to drive employment and be used as an instrument for peace.
Supply chain management is a key element in comprehensive plans required to execute what are known as stability operations. According to official Defense Department policy, "Stability operations are a core U.S. military mission that the Department of Defense shall be prepared to conduct and support. They shall be given priority comparable to combat operations and be explicitly addressed and integrated across all DOD activities including doctrine, organizations, training, education, exercises, materiel, leadership, personnel, facilities, and planning."
It even shows up in Army field manuals. "Stability operations may be necessary to develop host-nation capacities for security and control of security forces, a viable market economy, the rule of law, and an effective government. Security, the health of the local economy, and the capability of self-government are related. Without security, the local economy falters. A functioning economy provides employment and reduces the dependence of the population on the military for necessities. Security and economic stability precede an effective and stable government."
You can't have economic stability without a functioning supply chain, and you can't make that happen without some elements of a supply chain management solution— the policies, processes, data, technology, and people—available forward as economic levers to secure the peace. It's not the Cold War anymore.
Critical to the success in Iskandariyah has been the visible support of Sheik Sabah Khafaji, the deputy director general of SCAI, president of the City Council, and the head of one of the three largest tribes in the area.
And it is Sheik Khafaji who sent me a thank you note. Please forgive his English, but it is far better than my Arabic: "Thank you for the feelings of humanitarian [generosity] granted us. We have emerged into a reality as results of the efforts and great sacrifices made. And always will be successful work which develops human society ... and achieve security and peace for the people. Thank you for the great assistance you given us and wish you continued success, my good friend."
Yes, a supply chain can promote peace.
Author's postscript: A heartfelt thank you to the brave men and women of the 501st Parachute Infantry Regiment at Forward Operating Base Iskandariyah, who did so much and gave so much. I am grateful and proud to have known you. Geronimo.
Artificial intelligence (AI) and data science were hot business topics in 2024 and will remain on the front burner in 2025, according to recent research published in AI in Action, a series of technology-focused columns in the MIT Sloan Management Review.
In Five Trends in AI and Data Science for 2025, researchers Tom Davenport and Randy Bean outline ways in which AI and our data-driven culture will continue to shape the business landscape in the coming year. The information comes from a range of recent AI-focused research projects, including the 2025 AI & Data Leadership Executive Benchmark Survey, an annual survey of data, analytics, and AI executives conducted by Bean’s educational firm, Data & AI Leadership Exchange.
The five trends range from the promise of agentic AI to the struggle over which C-suite role should oversee data and AI responsibilities. At a glance, they reveal that:
Leaders will grapple with both the promise and hype around agentic AI. Agentic AI—which handles tasks independently—is on the rise, in the form of generative AI bots that can perform some content-creation tasks. But the authors say it will be a while before such tools can handle major tasks—like make a travel reservation or conduct a banking transaction.
The time has come to measure results from generative AI experiments. The authors say very few companies are carefully measuring productivity gains from AI projects—particularly when it comes to figuring out what their knowledge-based workers are doing with the freed-up time those projects provide. Doing so is vital to profiting from AI investments.
The reality about data-driven culture sets in. The authors found that 92% of survey respondents feel that cultural and change management challenges are the primary barriers to becoming data- and AI-driven—indicating that the shift to AI is about much more than just the technology.
Unstructured data is important again. The ability to apply Generative AI tools to manage unstructured data—such as text, images, and video—is putting a renewed focus on getting all that data into shape, which takes a whole lot of human effort. As the authors explain “organizations need to pick the best examples of each document type, tag or graph the content, and get it loaded into the system.” And many companies simply aren’t there yet.
Who should run data and AI? Expect continued struggle. Should these roles be concentrated on the business or tech side of the organization? Opinions differ, and as the roles themselves continue to evolve, the authors say companies should expect to continue to wrestle with responsibilities and reporting structures.
Shippers today are praising an 11th-hour contract agreement that has averted the threat of a strike by dockworkers at East and Gulf coast ports that could have frozen container imports and exports as soon as January 16.
The agreement came late last night between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) representing some 45,000 workers and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) that includes the operators of port facilities up and down the coast.
Details of the new agreement on those issues have not yet been made public, but in the meantime, retailers and manufacturers are heaving sighs of relief that trade flows will continue.
“Providing certainty with a new contract and avoiding further disruptions is paramount to ensure retail goods arrive in a timely manner for consumers. The agreement will also pave the way for much-needed modernization efforts, which are essential for future growth at these ports and the overall resiliency of our nation’s supply chain,” Gold said.
The next step in the process is for both sides to ratify the tentative agreement, so negotiators have agreed to keep those details private in the meantime, according to identical statements released by the ILA and the USMX. In their joint statement, the groups called the six-year deal a “win-win,” saying: “This agreement protects current ILA jobs and establishes a framework for implementing technologies that will create more jobs while modernizing East and Gulf coasts ports – making them safer and more efficient, and creating the capacity they need to keep our supply chains strong. This is a win-win agreement that creates ILA jobs, supports American consumers and businesses, and keeps the American economy the key hub of the global marketplace.”
The breakthrough hints at broader supply chain trends, which will focus on the tension between operational efficiency and workforce job protection, not just at ports but across other sectors as well, according to a statement from Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, a freight booking and payment platform. Port automation was the major sticking point leading up to this agreement, as the USMX pushed for technologies to make ports more efficient, while the ILA opposed automation or semi-automation that could threaten jobs.
"This is a six-year détente in the tech-versus-labor tug-of-war at U.S. ports," Levine said. “Automation remains a lightning rod—and likely one we’ll see in other industries—but this deal suggests a cautious path forward."
Editor's note: This story was revised on January 9 to include additional input from the ILA, USMX, and Freightos.
Logistics industry growth slowed in December due to a seasonal wind-down of inventory and following one of the busiest holiday shopping seasons on record, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) report, released this week.
The monthly LMI was 57.3 in December, down more than a percentage point from November’s reading of 58.4. Despite the slowdown, economic activity across the industry continued to expand, as an LMI reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The LMI researchers said the monthly conditions were largely due to seasonal drawdowns in inventory levels—and the associated costs of holding them—at the retail level. The LMI’s Inventory Levels index registered 50, falling from 56.1 in November. That reduction also affected warehousing capacity, which slowed but remained in expansion mode: The LMI’s warehousing capacity index fell 7 points to a reading of 61.6.
December’s results reflect a continued trend toward more typical industry growth patterns following recent years of volatility—and they point to a successful peak holiday season as well.
“Retailers were clearly correct in their bet to stock [up] on goods ahead of the holiday season,” the LMI researchers wrote in their monthly report. “Holiday sales from November until Christmas Eve were up 3.8% year-over-year according to Mastercard. This was largely driven by a 6.7% increase in e-commerce sales, although in-person spending was up 2.9% as well.”
And those results came during a compressed peak shopping cycle.
“The increase in spending came despite the shorter holiday season due to the late Thanksgiving,” the researchers also wrote, citing National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates that U.S. shoppers spent just short of a trillion dollars in November and December, making it the busiest holiday season of all time.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
The overall national industrial real estate vacancy rate edged higher in the fourth quarter, although it still remains well below pre-pandemic levels, according to an analysis by Cushman & Wakefield.
Vacancy rates shrunk during the pandemic to historically low levels as e-commerce sales—and demand for warehouse space—boomed in response to massive numbers of people working and living from home. That frantic pace is now cooling off but real estate demand remains elevated from a long-term perspective.
“We've witnessed an uptick among firms looking to lease larger buildings to support their omnichannel fulfillment strategies and maintain inventory for their e-commerce, wholesale, and retail stock. This trend is not just about space, but about efficiency and customer satisfaction,” Jason Tolliver, President, Logistics & Industrial Services, said in a release. “Meanwhile, we're also seeing a flurry of activity to support forward-deployed stock models, a strategy that keeps products closer to the market they serve and where customers order them, promising quicker deliveries and happier customers.“
The latest figures show that industrial vacancy is likely nearing its peak for this cooling cycle in the coming quarters, Cushman & Wakefield analysts said.
Compared to the third quarter, the vacancy rate climbed 20 basis points to 6.7%, but that level was still 30 basis points below the 10-year, pre-pandemic average. Likewise, overall net absorption in the fourth quarter—a term for the amount of newly developed property leased by clients—measured 36.8 million square feet, up from the 33.3 million square feet recorded in the third quarter, but down 20% on a year-over-year basis.
In step with those statistics, real estate developers slowed their plans to erect more buildings. New construction deliveries continued to decelerate for the second straight quarter. Just 85.3 million square feet of new industrial product was completed in the fourth quarter, down 8% quarter-over-quarter and 48% versus one year ago.
Likewise, only four geographic markets saw more than 20 million square feet of completions year-to-date, compared to 10 markets in 2023. Meanwhile, as construction starts remained tempered overall, the under-development pipeline has continued to thin out, dropping by 36% annually to its lowest level (290.5 million square feet) since the third quarter of 2018.
Despite the dip in demand last quarter, the market for industrial space remains relatively healthy, Cushman & Wakefield said.
“After a year of hesitancy, logistics is entering a new, sustained growth phase,” Tolliver said. “Corporate capital is being deployed to optimize supply chains, diversify networks, and minimize potential risks. What's particularly encouraging is the proactive approach of retailers, wholesalers, and 3PLs, who are not just reacting to the market, but shaping it. 2025 will be a year characterized by this bias for action.”
Under terms of the deal, Sick and Endress+Hauser will each hold 50% of a joint venture called "Endress+Hauser SICK GmbH+Co. KG," which will strengthen the development and production of analyzer and gas flow meter technologies. According to Sick, its gas flow meters make it possible to switch to low-emission and non-fossil energy sources, for example, and the process analyzers allow reliable monitoring of emissions.
As part of the partnership, the product solutions manufactured together will now be marketed by Endress+Hauser, allowing customers to use a broader product portfolio distributed from a single source via that company’s global sales centers.
Under terms of the contract between the two companies—which was signed in the summer of 2024— around 800 Sick employees located in 42 countries will transfer to Endress+Hauser, including workers in the global sales and service units of Sick’s “Cleaner Industries” division.
“This partnership is a perfect match,” Peter Selders, CEO of the Endress+Hauser Group, said in a release. “It creates new opportunities for growth and development, particularly in the sustainable transformation of the process industry. By joining forces, we offer added value to our customers. Our combined efforts will make us faster and ultimately more successful than if we acted alone. In this case, one and one equals more than two.”
According to Sick, the move means that its current customers will continue to find familiar Sick contacts available at Endress+Hauser for consulting, sales, and service of process automation solutions. The company says this approach allows it to focus on its core business of factory and logistics automation to meet global demand for automation and digitalization.
Sick says its core business has always been in factory and logistics automation, which accounts for more than 80% of sales, and this area remains unaffected by the new joint venture. In Sick’s view, automation is crucial for industrial companies to secure their productivity despite limited resources. And Sick’s sensor solutions are a critical part of industrial automation, which increases productivity through artificial intelligence and the digital networking of production and supply chains.