the trouble with Harry: interview with Andy Yablin
Getting 8.5 million copies of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix into stores for sale at but not a minute before the witching hour on June 21 was only part of Andy Yablin's challenge. The other part was keeping every single copy under wraps so nobody could ruin the magic.
Peter Bradley is an award-winning career journalist with more than three decades of experience in both newspapers and national business magazines. His credentials include seven years as the transportation and supply chain editor at Purchasing Magazine and six years as the chief editor of Logistics Management.
Maybe the hippogriffs weren't available. And it was probably clear from the start that an 870-page volume wouldn't be a good candidate for shipping by broomstick (even a Firebolt model) or by "owl post." In the end,all 8.5 million copies of Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix rolled up to loading docks and doorsteps across America after traveling by conventional means—truck, rail, ship and plane.
These conventional choices were probably a big relief for Andy Yablin, the guy who had to account for each copy from the moment it left the bindery until it arrived at the retailer's or redistributor's premises. Since January, Yablin, vice president of global logistics for Scholastic Inc., the U.S. publisher of the Harry Potter books, has had little time for anything other than figuring out where each of the 8.5 million copies would go once it was produced, when it was going to get there and how. A challenging task, to be sure, but that wasn't the half of it. To accommodate author J.K. Rowling's wishes to keep the plot secret, Scholastic placed an embargo on the book's contents. That meant Yablin also ended up as the de facto chief of the Potter transportation police, charged with making sure that not one of those 8.5 million copies went astray while in transit.
Obviously, launching book 5 of the wildly popular Harry Potter series was no ordinary mega-challenge. But when the pixie dust settled, it was apparent that Yablin and his team had prevailed. When customers lined up outside bookstores across the country for the much-ballyhooed midnight release, the books were there waiting for them.
Though nothing in his background could have prepared him for this challenge, Yablin at least came to Scholastic with deep experience in the field. He holds a degree in logistics from Northeastern University in Boston and a master's degree in management from Lesley College in Cambridge, Mass. While at Northeastern, he began working at Mobil Oil, a job he found through the school's co-op program. He joined Mobil full time after graduation and stayed with the company for 14 years, managing gasoline storage and delivery and ocean, rail, pipeline and truck transportation. He lef t Mobil to become North American transportation manager for Pepsico's Pepsi Bottling Group, where he was responsible for truck load transportation in the United States and Canada, overseeing raw materials delivery into 70 bottling plants. In Apri l 2002, he moved to Scholastic, where logistics has a high profile with executive management — Yablin reports to Beth Ford, senior vice president of global operations and information technology, who reports directly to Chairman, President and CEO Richard Robinson.
Yablin talked to DC VELOCITY Chief Editor Peter Bradley about the weeks and days leading up to that magic moment when Harry 5 was released.
Q: What was involved in getting ready for such a major rollout?
A: We started in January, about six months ahead of the expected launch date,so we were actually planning well before the book was even finished. We started with the framework from the last two book launches, going over the pluses and minuses for both Harry 3 and Harry 4.
In the end, we decided to use the same framework that we used for Harry 4, which was to contract with a third-party logistics company to manage the truckload scheduling and coordination and large pallet-quantity orders that could be combined into truckload orders. That company would be responsible for load planning, coordinating deliveries and making the delivery appointments as well as coordinating with the producing plants on the outbound schedule.
The company we contracted with is called Combined Express. They're a large company in the book industry and knew the commodity, which was important to me.We held our first meeting with them in February.
Knowing that security was going to be an issue, one of the first things I told them was that they'd be restricted to one major carrier for the majority of the moves. For 95 percent of the truckload business, they partnered with J.B. Hunt directly. It worked out that we were able to take about 94 percent of the volume directly from the binderies or printing locations to the end customer. Because we only had six weeks from the time presses started up to the drop-dead date, I knew that we had to take steps out of the process. To go direct not only would save us a lot of money, but would also keep the process pretty tight. We did a lot of work on the load-planning side to ship as much as we possibly could direct.
The remaining 6 percent of the volume, books going to smaller independent stores, moved out of our distribution facility in Jefferson City, Mo. We still contracted through Combined Express and J.B. Hunt to move that 6 percent into Jefferson City. Then we hired [less-than-truckload carrier] Yellow Freight, which handled just under 1,400 deliveries out of that facility. The truckload business was about 800 one-stop or multi-stop loads out of the binderies. We also used two other carriers: UPS moved some of the volume, and the U.S. Postal Service handled 15,000 orders consisting of one or two books. So we had four main providers.
Q: Tell me a little bit about the work of the internal teams.
A: There were two teams. The team I headed up included a representative from the Jefferson City distribution facility, my folks on the logistics side, and one of the sales operations guys, who reported to the VP of sales. Our task was to figure out where the book would go once it was produced, when it was going to get there and how.
At the same time, the other team, a procurement team under the VP of purchasing, was working on securing the raw materials, the paper, the printing time and all of that. The two teams worked pretty closely together. I managed the inbound logistics for materials going to the bindery.We knew that shortly after the covers for the book got to the bindery, the books would be coming off the line.
The VP of supply chain and his department became involved in the planning process as well, playing a key role in the project. It was really a whole supply chain process, keeping the same carriers and the same personnel in the loop the whole time. Early on, we had biweekly planning meetings. As we got closer to the rollout, those meetings became weekly, then daily interactions with a structured discussion about how we were doing and the issues of the moment.
Q: What were some of the issues that came up?
A: We had normal production issues— nothing major, just production dates that moved back and forth. We produced at 12 locations—11 domestic, one in Mexico— which meant coordinating 12 binderies' production schedules and matching up those production schedules to a transportation schedule.
We ran into some issues moving books across the border, which turned out to be nothing more than delays. Crossing the Mexican border is not the easiest thing to do in the best of times, but we had just come out of the war and security had tightened up, so we had to build in some time there.We really didn't have a lot of fluff in the schedule b ecause we had only six weeks to do this and every book that was coming off the line was critical.
The other day-to-day issue was that once we started printing— we started producing around the 14th of May— we needed to account for every book every day. As days passed, the volume of books to account for grew larger. To keep track of the finished books, we had a roll call for every book every day— whether it was in the bindery's warehouse or on a truck staged in a secure yard. And that became more challenging as we got closer to the drop-dead date, given that we had eight and a half million books scattered across the United States.
To ensure security during transit, we put numbered cable seals on every trailer. We had Qualcomm [tracking equipment] on all the J.B. Hunt trucks so we could locate them while they were in transit. We even had an alarm mechanism set up to notify us if they stopped or if we didn't hear from the driver for X amount of time. Upon receipt at the yard, the seals were checked. If there was a disconnect there, the alarms went off. And once the trailer was in the yard, the seal was checked every 24 hours.
At the same time we were worrying about security, we were also taking steps to mitigate transportation costs. For example, we knew that the book was going to be heavy. Once we knew its exact weight, we could determine what the target truckload payload would be so that we could minimize the number of loads by maximizing the pallet count.
Eventually we targeted 42,000 pounds as the standard truckload payload weight and then worked backwards to calculate the number of cartons on a pallet to maximize that. It turned out that loading 28 pallets on a truck would get us to 42,000 pounds.
Early on in the planning process we realized that it would be a nightmare if we let every customer order a different configuration. So we notified customers that it would be 500 books on a pallet and if it was going to come from the bindery, it had to be a complete pallet. We also told them that a standard truckload was 28 pallets, and that's the way it was. It wasn't 26, it wasn't 27; it was going to be 28.
I think the simplicity that we built into the process really helped us. The forklift loader at every bindery knew that 28 pallets was a full load. It didn't matter where it was going. It really helped us maximize our loads as well as minimize the aggravation we would have faced if Wal-Mart ordered one way and Target ordered another way.
In addition, we used J.B. Hunt's intermodal service to move books from the East Coast to the West Coast. That had a couple of advantages. First, on the doublestack containers, we requested the upper level wherever possible, which kept our freight pretty much out of harm's way. The other thing that did for us was allow us to trade off some storage time for transit time.
Q: You had 8.5 million books to produce. Take me through the timetable for the rollout and the process you used to distribute them to your customers.
A: We had two waves of deliveries. We had a wave the week of June 11th. The target drop date was the 13th for orders that were going to book redistributors. These companies all had approval to get the book early so they could redistribute it through their own networks.
The large orders—like those that would move via Yellow Freight—all dropped on the 19th of June, but they were pre-positioned around the country all ready to go before that. On June 19th, Yellow Freight made 1,100 of its 1,400 deliveries. We used their Exact Express service, so we actually had hourly updates on how many deliveries were made, signatures received and proofs of delivery posted online. So by 11 o'clock Eastern time, we had confirmation that all 1,100 deliveries had been made across the United States. That included Hawaii and Alaska.
We had picked two locations in the United States— Memphis (because of Fed Ex's hub) and St. Louis— where we kept standby inventories of books we could put in the air if we had problems. We tapped into that for a couple of cartons that got damaged in transit, but we made every delivery on time, so we didn't have to worry about using that inventory.
For Hawaii and Alaska, we worked with Yellow Freight to pre-position books from the first press run in May in Honolulu and Anchorage, using secure ocean containers rather than having to move the books via air.
Q: That had to save you a lot of money.
A: Yes. Air transport would have cost about five times as much as ground service. And we had time on our side.
Q: We talked a little about security. I imagine that was a high priority for you.
A: It was priority number one. All the production employees were screened and secured. Each one of the binderies had responsibility for security of the product while it was there.Once the books left the bindery, security became my responsibility.We had a stringent security plan in place that all of the carriers signed up for, and they knew what they needed to do if there was a breach. In Jefferson City, the DC's distribution team, which was headed up by Chris Peters, oversaw the security of the product during the time it was stored in the warehouse.
Q: How many locations were you actually delivering to?
A: That's hard to say. I can tell you that the 1,300 or 1,400 deliveries made by Yellow Freight all went to different customers. The 15,000 shipments that we sent out by the U.S. Postal Service were delivered to 5,000 different customers and then there were about 2,500 shipments that went via UPS.
Q: How did you coordinate with other departments within Scholastic?
A: The trade sales group, headed up by Ed Swart, took the lead on the project. They're the ones who interacted with customers and predicted what volume they'd need. Swart and his team also played a key role in maximizing and simplifying all of the loads. In addition, my interaction with the VP of procurement was clearly critical for both of us, because we needed to get the inbound materials into the bindery. And because these binderies don't have any storage facilities, we needed to have vehicles pre-positioned and ready to pull the inventory out of there as soon as the books were finished. It required a close relationship between purchasing and logistics to make the operations side of it work. I can't stress enough that although I may have been the leader and orchestra tor of the project, the launch represented a tremendous cross-functional team effort.
Q: Tell me about the last week. Was it 24-hour days for you?
A: Everything was pretty calm for the first four weeks of production because we were moving trailers to the secure yards and it was pretty controlled. Once we started making deliveries around the 13th, I'm not sure I really got a good night's sleep until the 21st.
Q: What have you learned from this for the next book launch?
A: I think about 95 percent of the plan that we put in place for this one will carry forward to the next launch, although there are always some things you'd do a bit differently. In this day and age, with staffing and other issues, I think using a third-party logistics company is a great way to bring in the expertise when you have a spike in your volume. They can be there when you need them and they're gone when the project is over. I'd say bringing in hired talent to help manage the project is a st rategy I'll use again. I wrote five words down before you called: planning, communication, execution, teamwork and coordination. To me, those were the key elements that helped guide us through the whole program.
Congestion on U.S. highways is costing the trucking industry big, according to research from the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), released today.
The group found that traffic congestion on U.S. highways added $108.8 billion in costs to the trucking industry in 2022, a record high. The information comes from ATRI’s Cost of Congestion study, which is part of the organization’s ongoing highway performance measurement research.
Total hours of congestion fell slightly compared to 2021 due to softening freight market conditions, but the cost of operating a truck increased at a much higher rate, according to the research. As a result, the overall cost of congestion increased by 15% year-over-year—a level equivalent to more than 430,000 commercial truck drivers sitting idle for one work year and an average cost of $7,588 for every registered combination truck.
The analysis also identified metropolitan delays and related impacts, showing that the top 10 most-congested states each experienced added costs of more than $8 billion. That list was led by Texas, at $9.17 billion in added costs; California, at $8.77 billion; and Florida, $8.44 billion. Rounding out the top 10 list were New York, Georgia, New Jersey, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, and Tennessee. Combined, the top 10 states account for more than half of the trucking industry’s congestion costs nationwide—52%, according to the research.
The metro areas with the highest congestion costs include New York City, $6.68 billion; Miami, $3.2 billion; and Chicago, $3.14 billion.
ATRI’s analysis also found that the trucking industry wasted more than 6.4 billion gallons of diesel fuel in 2022 due to congestion, resulting in additional fuel costs of $32.1 billion.
ATRI used a combination of data sources, including its truck GPS database and Operational Costs study benchmarks, to calculate the impacts of trucking delays on major U.S. roadways.
There’s a photo from 1971 that John Kent, professor of supply chain management at the University of Arkansas, likes to show. It’s of a shaggy-haired 18-year-old named Glenn Cowan grinning at three-time world table tennis champion Zhuang Zedong, while holding a silk tapestry Zhuang had just given him. Cowan was a member of the U.S. table tennis team who participated in the 1971 World Table Tennis Championships in Nagoya, Japan. Story has it that one morning, he overslept and missed his bus to the tournament and had to hitch a ride with the Chinese national team and met and connected with Zhuang.
Cowan and Zhuang’s interaction led to an invitation for the U.S. team to visit China. At the time, the two countries were just beginning to emerge from a 20-year period of decidedly frosty relations, strict travel bans, and trade restrictions. The highly publicized trip signaled a willingness on both sides to renew relations and launched the term “pingpong diplomacy.”
Kent, who is a senior fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations, believes the photograph is a good reminder that some 50-odd years ago, the economies of the United States and China were not as tightly interwoven as they are today. At the time, the Nixon administration was looking to form closer political and economic ties between the two countries in hopes of reducing chances of future conflict (and to weaken alliances among Communist countries).
The signals coming out of Washington and Beijing are now, of course, much different than they were in the early 1970s. Instead of advocating for better relations, political rhetoric focuses on the need for the U.S. to “decouple” from China. Both Republicans and Democrats have warned that the U.S. economy is too dependent on goods manufactured in China. They see this dependency as a threat to economic strength, American jobs, supply chain resiliency, and national security.
Supply chain professionals, however, know that extricating ourselves from our reliance on Chinese manufacturing is easier said than done. Many pundits push for a “China + 1” strategy, where companies diversify their manufacturing and sourcing options beyond China. But in reality, that “plus one” is often a Chinese company operating in a different country or a non-Chinese manufacturer that is still heavily dependent on material or subcomponents made in China.
This is the problem when supply chain decisions are made on a global scale without input from supply chain professionals. In an article in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Kent argues that, “The discussions on supply chains mainly take place between government officials who typically bring many other competing issues and agendas to the table. Corporate entities—the individuals and companies directly impacted by supply chains—tend to be under-represented in the conversation.”
Kent is a proponent of what he calls “supply chain diplomacy,” where experts from academia and industry from the U.S. and China work collaboratively to create better, more efficient global supply chains. Take, for example, the “Peace Beans” project that Kent is involved with. This project, jointly formed by Zhejiang University and the Bush China Foundation, proposes balancing supply chains by exporting soybeans from Arkansas to tofu producers in China’s Yunnan province, and, in return, importing coffee beans grown in Yunnan to coffee roasters in Arkansas. Kent believes the operation could even use the same transportation equipment.
The benefits of working collaboratively—instead of continuing to build friction in the supply chain through tariffs and adversarial relationships—are numerous, according to Kent and his colleagues. They believe it would be much better if the two major world economies worked together on issues like global inflation, climate change, and artificial intelligence.
And such relations could play a significant role in strengthening world peace, particularly in light of ongoing tensions over Taiwan. Because, as Kent writes, “The 19th-century idea that ‘When goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will’ is as true today as ever. Perhaps more so.”
Hyster-Yale Materials Handling today announced its plans to fulfill the domestic manufacturing requirements of the Build America, Buy America (BABA) Act for certain portions of its lineup of forklift trucks and container handling equipment.
That means the Greenville, North Carolina-based company now plans to expand its existing American manufacturing with a targeted set of high-capacity models, including electric options, that align with the needs of infrastructure projects subject to BABA requirements. The company’s plans include determining the optimal production location in the United States, strategically expanding sourcing agreements to meet local material requirements, and further developing electric power options for high-capacity equipment.
As a part of the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the BABA Act aims to increase the use of American-made materials in federally funded infrastructure projects across the U.S., Hyster-Yale says. It was enacted as part of a broader effort to boost domestic manufacturing and economic growth, and mandates that federal dollars allocated to infrastructure – such as roads, bridges, ports and public transit systems – must prioritize materials produced in the USA, including critical items like steel, iron and various construction materials.
Hyster-Yale’s footprint in the U.S. is spread across 10 locations, including three manufacturing facilities.
“Our leadership is fully invested in meeting the needs of businesses that require BABA-compliant material handling solutions,” Tony Salgado, Hyster-Yale’s chief operating officer, said in a release. “We are working to partner with our key domestic suppliers, as well as identifying how best to leverage our own American manufacturing footprint to deliver a competitive solution for our customers and stakeholders. But beyond mere compliance, and in line with the many areas of our business where we are evolving to better support our customers, our commitment remains steadfast. We are dedicated to delivering industry-leading standards in design, durability and performance — qualities that have become synonymous with our brands worldwide and that our customers have come to rely on and expect.”
In a separate move, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) also gave its approval for the state to advance its Heavy-Duty Omnibus Rule, which is crafted to significantly reduce smog-forming nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from new heavy-duty, diesel-powered trucks.
Both rules are intended to deliver health benefits to California citizens affected by vehicle pollution, according to the environmental group Earthjustice. If the state gets federal approval for the final steps to become law, the rules mean that cars on the road in California will largely be zero-emissions a generation from now in the 2050s, accounting for the average vehicle lifespan of vehicles with internal combustion engine (ICE) power sold before that 2035 date.
“This might read like checking a bureaucratic box, but EPA’s approval is a critical step forward in protecting our lungs from pollution and our wallets from the expenses of combustion fuels,” Paul Cort, director of Earthjustice’s Right To Zero campaign, said in a release. “The gradual shift in car sales to zero-emissions models will cut smog and household costs while growing California’s clean energy workforce. Cutting truck pollution will help clear our skies of smog. EPA should now approve the remaining authorization requests from California to allow the state to clean its air and protect its residents.”
However, the truck drivers' industry group Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) pushed back against the federal decision allowing the Omnibus Low-NOx rule to advance. "The Omnibus Low-NOx waiver for California calls into question the policymaking process under the Biden administration's EPA. Purposefully injecting uncertainty into a $588 billion American industry is bad for our economy and makes no meaningful progress towards purported environmental goals," (OOIDA) President Todd Spencer said in a release. "EPA's credibility outside of radical environmental circles would have been better served by working with regulated industries rather than ramming through last-minute special interest favors. We look forward to working with the Trump administration's EPA in good faith towards achievable environmental outcomes.”
Editor's note:This article was revised on December 18 to add reaction from OOIDA.
Global trade will see a moderate rebound in 2025, likely growing by 3.6% in volume terms, helped by companies restocking and households renewing purchases of durable goods while reducing spending on services, according to a forecast from trade credit insurer Allianz Trade.
The end of the year for 2024 will also likely be supported by companies rushing to ship goods in anticipation of the higher tariffs likely to be imposed by the coming Trump administration, and other potential disruptions in the coming quarters, the report said.
However, that tailwind for global trade will likely shift to a headwind once the effects of a renewed but contained trade war are felt from the second half of 2025 and in full in 2026. As a result, Allianz Trade has throttled back its predictions, saying that global trade in volume will grow by 2.8% in 2025 (reduced by 0.2 percentage points vs. its previous forecast) and 2.3% in 2026 (reduced by 0.5 percentage points).
The same logic applies to Allianz Trade’s forecast for export prices in U.S. dollars, which the firm has now revised downward to predict growth reaching 2.3% in 2025 (reduced by 1.7 percentage points) and 4.1% in 2026 (reduced by 0.8 percentage points).
In the meantime, the rush to frontload imports into the U.S. is giving freight carriers an early Christmas present. According to Allianz Trade, data released last week showed Chinese exports rising by a robust 6.7% y/y in November. And imports of some consumer goods that have been threatened with a likely 25% tariff under the new Trump administration have outperformed even more, growing by nearly 20% y/y on average between July and September.