but intelligent software agents programmed to make exquisitely nuanced logistics decisions will soon be at work in the commercial sector as well. Maybe.
Wouldn't you like end-to-end control of the entire logistics pipeline? Simultaneous planning and execution? A logistics control system that operated at all levels and during all phases of operations? A system that allowed multiple simultaneous communications and decision-making over a vastly complex, spread out theater of operations?
Well, of course you would, although it probably sounds as far-fetched as having psychic access to your customers' order planning, or complete control over the weather.
It's not. The U.S. military and the defense departments in other countries, including the UK and Australia, are shooting for these exact goals, and they're coming close to achieving them. It's all made possible by something called intelligent software agents (see box).
Ironically, intelligent agents were originally developed in the commercial sector, and advocates initially had high hopes for an early rollout there. Last year, we published a story about intelligent software, quoting several sources who promised significant pilot projects in the next year. That proved overly optimistic, and a year on, adoption in the commercial sector is still far from reality. In the interim, however, intelligent software agent technology has steadily found its way into mainstream military applications.
R & Defense
It may be that the military has pulled ahead simply because it needs this level of sophistication more than commercial shippers do. "People ask, why aren't you like Wal-Mart," says Mark Greaves, program manager at the U.S. Department of Defense's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in Arlington, Va. "I say, well we are like Wal-Mart except our stores are moving all the time and Christmas comes on a random date every year."
And so for now, the military's where the action is. "The military has been in the front of this agent stuff," confirms Dr. Noel Greis, director of the Center for Logistics and Digital Strategy at the University of North Carolina's Kenan-Flagler Business School. "In the commercial world, the interest in agents [really took off] during the e-commerce era, and most of the applications focused on the interface between the customer and the process." (Amazon.com, for example, uses intelligent agents to automatically recommend new titles based on the customer's previous purchases.) "The military is a bit different," says Greis. "They dug in immediately on how agents can help with internal processes, especially logistics—the deployment of people, ammunition, fuel, water. In the military, agents are part of this whole digitization of the battlefield and systemization of operations. They want information captured in real time so they can see how the environment is changing dynamically and make sense of the information coming in."
On that front, perhaps the most promising intelligent software system being developed in the United States is UltraLog. Project UltraLog was established by DARPA in 2001 to take over from the Advanced Logistics Project that ran there from 1996 to 2001.
The UltraLog project's stated goal is "to create a comprehensive capability [that] will enable a massive scale, trusted, distributed agent infrastructure for operational logistics to be survivable under the most extreme circumstances." In other words, researchers are seeking the best way to use smart technology for maximum operational efficiency in combat situations—with the ability to continue operating at 80-percent capacity with up to 45-percent information infrastructure loss, for example.
UltraLog's not the only project under way, however. Others include Control of Agent-Based Systems (CoABS, also under DARPA), and Log Net, a joint-venture between the University of North Carolina, software vendor Saffron Technology of Morrisville, N.C., and Boeing Inc., headquartered in Chicago, which is developing technology for the U.S. Marine Corps. The Office of Naval Research announced in August 2003 a $5.74 million contract with the University of Southern California and Vanderbilt University to use agent software developed by computer scientists at the two schools to handle Navy and Marine Corps pilots' schedules. There is also a more ambitious and long-term project called Future Combat Systems, fostered by the U.S. Army.
Ultra-quick response
There are two main advantages to using intelligent software agents to help out with dynamic logistics management— that is, logistics management that responds quickly to changing situations.
First, intelligent agents form a collaborative network and can act independently. They don't need to operate in lockstep with a "master" computer that's overseeing everything; they can make a request, say, from a transportation management system to a local shipper's office without going through the head office's computer banks. This is called a distributed system, and it mimics much more tightly the physical structure of a complex logistics network.
Second, intelligent software agents are able to make autonomous decisions that humans would likely make if only they had the time. This is where the technology intersects with artificial intelligence, although on a relatively small scale. Intelligent agents are programmed with parameters that cause them to make what humans would consider "good" decisions, and they interface with humans on overall plans that spring from those decisions.
"What we're trying to do is tackle something that is a critical need, which is to unload humans from a lot of the mundane tasks they need to do, and to get humans and computers to collaborate," says Dr. Andrew Lucas, managing director at Agent Oriented Software Pty Ltd., a Victoria, Australia-based technology firm. "If you could do that, you could get a lot done," adds Lucas, who's currently working for the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory at the Wright-Patterson Air Force base in Ohio, applying intelligent agents to military simulation.
And you could get a lot done fast. Enlisting computers to collaborate and make decisions lets users create a top-level logistics plan for a major maneuver in under an hour instead of the weeks it would take using humans alone. The USC/Vanderbilt program researchers reckon intelligent software cuts down the time needed to produce a daily schedule for AV8-B Harrier jump jets from six hours to four minutes.
Furthermore, intelligent software gives users greater ability to predict and limit the loss of operability caused by damage to the logistics system. The DARPA UltraLog program stresses the capability to build clusters of intelligent software agents that adapt so they can function in damaged and stressed environments. The military needs these capabilities more than anyone else because, for them, a logistics hiccup might mean losing an entire port or fleet of aircraft.
Greis says that the Future Combat System will also concentrate on smart ways of figuring out when and how to restock supplies in the field. "What they'd like to do is to make a lot of the logistics processes—re-supply, moving materiel from boat to shore—as autonomous and automated as possible. Right now, someone gets on the horn and says: I need such and such, and they're just responding. What they'd like to do is to develop agent systems that are more anticipatory and also respond autonomously," says Greis.
Greis describes one test project conducted recently, where vehicles in the battlefield were fitted with sensors that relayed information about engine temperatures, water and oil levels and so on. The software agents made their own decisions about how much to re-supply, who would do it, when it would be done and how long it was going to take. "We've developed a system with mobile agents, learning agents, collaborative agents that work together to manage the logistics," says Greis. "We're moving away from the push model to more of a pull model of supply. It's the same concept as the commercial supply chain."
Other military forces are catching on, too. Dr. Lucas is doing simulation work for the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL), part of the UK's Ministry of Defence. Lucas is also working with the Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO) in Australia to apply his company's agent product to unmanned air vehicle mission management. The firm is also working with the military in Canada and France.
Beginning of a beautiful friendship
Lucas is confident this smart technology will end up in the commercial sector, but he doesn't expect to see widescale adoption for five years or so. "It's not being used in the commercial sector, but it's close," he says. "As a technologist, I recognize that risk management is a big element in introducing new technologies. It's about showing people you have a plan for proving the technology and reducing the risk to the customer, over a number of years, and we've chosen to do that with the military first."
Part of the problem is that the technology's not quite ready for prime time. "We don't want to minimize the extent to which we think this would be useful in the commercial world," says Tony Rozga, research fellow at LMI Government Consulting, a not-for-profit government consulting firm based in McLean, Va., that supports the UltraLog project. "It's just not there yet." LMI and DARPA have worked together to develop Cougaar, a computer architecture for distributed agents. Notably, it's been made "open source"—that is, non proprietary—to encourage commercial application.
Saffron Technology's co-founder, chairman and chief scientist, Manny Aparicio, says one obstacle to adoption in the commercial sector is the issue of trust, especially with learning agents—ones that gather information about habitual human preferences and responses over time. People are nervous about delegating responsibility to a piece of software, Aparicio says. But, once they learn to trust it, things change. "The user can have it set so it just makes recommendations, but then they might get bored seeing it's right all the time and let it build a whole re-supply strategy," Aparicio says. There's always a safety net, he adds. "Whenever an agent sees a situation it doesn't know, it can still send an exception back."
Meanwhile, Greis's Center for Logistics and Digital Strategy's new "Intelligent Enterprise Initiative" aims to help industry leverage advances in digital technology, especially intelligent agents, to redesign their business processes. Greis says the commercial logistics sector is still wrestling with collecting sufficiently fine-grain data to feed to intelligent agents—something the military is far ahead on. "As you get all this real-time information, the agents are going to become tools for interpreting that," Greis says. "So people are focused on the RFID part of the puzzle [for now], but ultimately the RFID and agents will be brought together."
What is intelligent software?
Intelligent software agents are a form of artificial intelligence —software packets that act as autonomous decision- making entities, capable of coming up with solutions to problems and acting on them automatically. Think of the job performed by a travel agent hired by a business manager who needs to schedule a meeting. The manager contacts the travel agent to deal with flight schedules and make rental car and hotel arrangements. The travel agent then works independently with the manager's assistant—who's planning other details of the meeting, such as time and the list of attendees— to coordinate efforts so that they fit in with personal schedules, location information, the other attendees and even the weather.
To the manager, the end result, ideally, is a simple set of outcomes—flights, hotel booking, a reserved conference room full of people he wants to meet with. But the travel agent and assistant have collaborated in choosing these outcomes from an almost infinite number of possibilities, many of them interrelated. Change one factor and you change others—flying direct rather than to the local airport means renting a car. A single hiccup can send the whole process back to square one—a crucial client becomes unavailable on those dates. And so on. People respond and make decisions as the situation changes.
Software agents do the same job. They are goal-oriented, autonomous, collaborative, adaptive, proactive and mobile. Further, they allow "systems of systems," meaning you can link any number of agents together to get on with highly complex and widely distributed series of tasks. In practical logistics operations, such as a theater of war, that means you can have data and business processes distributed throughout the operation, instead of centralized data warehouses with longreach data feeds. This makes the flow of information adaptable to fast-changing environments, according to DARPA. It's also more robust and more reliable.
States across the Southeast woke up today to find that the immediate weather impacts from Hurricane Helene are done, but the impacts to people, businesses, and the supply chain continue to be a major headache, according to Everstream Analytics.
The primary problem is the collection of massive power outages caused by the storm’s punishing winds and rainfall, now affecting some 2 million customers across the Southeast region of the U.S.
One organization working to rush help to affected regions since the storm hit Florida’s western coast on Thursday night is the American Logistics Aid Network (ALAN). As it does after most serious storms, the group continues to marshal donated resources from supply chain service providers in order to store, stage, and deliver help where it’s needed.
Support for recovery efforts is coming from a massive injection of federal aid, since the White House declared states of emergency last week for Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Affected states are also supporting the rush of materials to needed zones by suspending transportation requirement such as certain licensing agreements, fuel taxes, weight restrictions, and hours of service caps, ALAN said.
E-commerce activity remains robust, but a growing number of consumers are reintegrating physical stores into their shopping journeys in 2024, emphasizing the need for retailers to focus on omnichannel business strategies. That’s according to an e-commerce study from Ryder System, Inc., released this week.
Ryder surveyed more than 1,300 consumers for its 2024 E-Commerce Consumer Study and found that 61% of consumers shop in-store “because they enjoy the experience,” a 21% increase compared to results from Ryder’s 2023 survey on the same subject. The current survey also found that 35% shop in-store because they don’t want to wait for online orders in the mail (up 4% from last year), and 15% say they shop in-store to avoid package theft (up 8% from last year).
“Retail and e-commerce continue to evolve,” Jeff Wolpov, Ryder’s senior vice president of e-commerce, said in a statement announcing the survey’s findings. “The emergence of e-commerce and growth of omnichannel fulfillment, particularly over the past four years, has altered consumer expectations and behavior dramatically and will continue to do so as time and technology allow.
“This latest study demonstrates that, while consumers maintain a robust
appetite for e-commerce, they are simultaneously embracing in-person shopping, presenting an impetus for merchants to refine their omnichannel strategies.”
Other findings include:
• Apparel and cosmetics shoppers show growing attraction to buying in-store. When purchasing apparel and cosmetics, shoppers are more inclined to make purchases in a physical location than they were last year, according to Ryder. Forty-one percent of shoppers who buy cosmetics said they prefer to do so either in a brand’s physical retail location or a department/convenience store (+9%). As for apparel shoppers, 54% said they prefer to buy clothing in those same brick-and-mortar locations (+9%).
• More customers prefer returning online purchases in physical stores. Fifty-five percent of shoppers (+15%) now say they would rather return online purchases in-store–the first time since early 2020 the preference to Buy Online Return In-Store (BORIS) has outweighed returning via mail, according to the survey. Forty percent of shoppers said they often make additional purchases when picking up or returning online purchases in-store (+2%).
• Consumers are extremely reliant on mobile devices when shopping in-store. This year’s survey reveals that 77% of consumers search for items on their mobile devices while in a store, Ryder said. Sixty-nine percent said they compare prices with items in nearby stores, 58% check availability at other stores, 31% want to learn more about a product, and 17% want to see other items frequently purchased with a product they’re considering.
Ryder said the findings also underscore the importance of investing in technology solutions that allow companies to provide customers with flexible purchasing options.
“Omnichannel strength is not a fad; it is a strategic necessity for e-commerce and retail businesses to stay competitive and achieve sustainable success in 2024 and beyond,” Wolpov also said. “The findings from this year’s study underscore what we know our customers are experiencing, which is the positive impact of integrating supply chain technology solutions across their sales channels, enabling them to provide their customers with flexible, convenient options to personalize their experience and heighten customer satisfaction.”
Transportation industry veteran Anne Reinke will become president & CEO of trade group the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) at the end of the year, stepping into the position from her previous post leading third party logistics (3PL) trade group the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), both organizations said today.
Meanwhile, TIA today announced that insider Christopher Burroughs would fill Reinke’s shoes as president & CEO. Burroughs has been with TIA for 13 years, most recently as its vice president of Government Affairs for the past six years, during which time he oversaw all legislative and regulatory efforts before Congress and the federal agencies.
Before her four years leading TIA, Reinke spent two years as Deputy Assistant Secretary with the U.S. Department of Transportation and 16 years with CSX Corporation.
As the hours tick down toward a “seemingly imminent” strike by East Coast and Gulf Coast dockworkers, experts are warning that the impacts of that move would mushroom well-beyond the actual strike locations, causing prevalent shipping delays, container ship congestion, port congestion on West coast ports, and stranded freight.
However, a strike now seems “nearly unavoidable,” as no bargaining sessions are scheduled prior to the September 30 contract expiration between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX) in their negotiations over wages and automation, according to the transportation law firm Scopelitis, Garvin, Light, Hanson & Feary.
The facilities affected would include some 45,000 port workers at 36 locations, including high-volume U.S. ports from Boston, New York / New Jersey, and Norfolk, to Savannah and Charleston, and down to New Orleans and Houston. With such widespread geography, a strike would likely lead to congestion from diverted traffic, as well as knock-on effects include the potential risk of increased freight rates and costly charges such as demurrage, detention, per diem, and dwell time fees on containers that may be slowed due to the congestion, according to an analysis by another transportation and logistics sector law firm, Benesch.
The weight of those combined blows means that many companies are already planning ways to minimize damage and recover quickly from the event. According to Scopelitis’ advice, mitigation measures could include: preparing for congestion on West coast ports, taking advantage of intermodal ground transportation where possible, looking for alternatives including air transport when necessary for urgent delivery, delaying shipping from East and Gulf coast ports until after the strike, and budgeting for increased freight and container fees.
Additional advice on softening the blow of a potential coastwide strike came from John Donigian, senior director of supply chain strategy at Moody’s. In a statement, he named six supply chain strategies for companies to consider: expedite certain shipments, reallocate existing inventory strategically, lock in alternative capacity with trucking and rail providers , communicate transparently with stakeholders to set realistic expectations for delivery timelines, shift sourcing to regional suppliers if possible, and utilize drop shipping to maintain sales.
National nonprofit Wreaths Across America (WAA) kicked off its 2024 season this week with a call for volunteers. The group, which honors U.S. military veterans through a range of civic outreach programs, is seeking trucking companies and professional drivers to help deliver wreaths to cemeteries across the country for its annual wreath-laying ceremony, December 14.
“Wreaths Across America relies on the transportation industry to move the mission. The Honor Fleet, composed of dedicated carriers, professional drivers, and other transportation partners, guarantees the delivery of millions of sponsored veterans’ wreaths to their destination each year,” Courtney George, WAA’s director of trucking and industry relations, said in a statement Tuesday. “Transportation partners benefit from driver retention and recruitment, employee engagement, positive brand exposure, and the opportunity to give back to their community’s veterans and military families.”
WAA delivers wreaths to more than 4,500 locations nationwide, and as of this week had added more than 20 loads to be delivered this season. The wreaths are donated by sponsors from across the country, delivered by truckers, and laid at the graves of veterans by WAA volunteers.
Wreaths Across America
Transportation companies interested in joining the Honor Fleet can visit the WAA website to find an open lane or contact the WAA transportation team at trucking@wreathsacrossamerica.org for more information.