but intelligent software agents programmed to make exquisitely nuanced logistics decisions will soon be at work in the commercial sector as well. Maybe.
Wouldn't you like end-to-end control of the entire logistics pipeline? Simultaneous planning and execution? A logistics control system that operated at all levels and during all phases of operations? A system that allowed multiple simultaneous communications and decision-making over a vastly complex, spread out theater of operations?
Well, of course you would, although it probably sounds as far-fetched as having psychic access to your customers' order planning, or complete control over the weather.
It's not. The U.S. military and the defense departments in other countries, including the UK and Australia, are shooting for these exact goals, and they're coming close to achieving them. It's all made possible by something called intelligent software agents (see box).
Ironically, intelligent agents were originally developed in the commercial sector, and advocates initially had high hopes for an early rollout there. Last year, we published a story about intelligent software, quoting several sources who promised significant pilot projects in the next year. That proved overly optimistic, and a year on, adoption in the commercial sector is still far from reality. In the interim, however, intelligent software agent technology has steadily found its way into mainstream military applications.
R & Defense
It may be that the military has pulled ahead simply because it needs this level of sophistication more than commercial shippers do. "People ask, why aren't you like Wal-Mart," says Mark Greaves, program manager at the U.S. Department of Defense's Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) in Arlington, Va. "I say, well we are like Wal-Mart except our stores are moving all the time and Christmas comes on a random date every year."
And so for now, the military's where the action is. "The military has been in the front of this agent stuff," confirms Dr. Noel Greis, director of the Center for Logistics and Digital Strategy at the University of North Carolina's Kenan-Flagler Business School. "In the commercial world, the interest in agents [really took off] during the e-commerce era, and most of the applications focused on the interface between the customer and the process." (Amazon.com, for example, uses intelligent agents to automatically recommend new titles based on the customer's previous purchases.) "The military is a bit different," says Greis. "They dug in immediately on how agents can help with internal processes, especially logistics—the deployment of people, ammunition, fuel, water. In the military, agents are part of this whole digitization of the battlefield and systemization of operations. They want information captured in real time so they can see how the environment is changing dynamically and make sense of the information coming in."
On that front, perhaps the most promising intelligent software system being developed in the United States is UltraLog. Project UltraLog was established by DARPA in 2001 to take over from the Advanced Logistics Project that ran there from 1996 to 2001.
The UltraLog project's stated goal is "to create a comprehensive capability [that] will enable a massive scale, trusted, distributed agent infrastructure for operational logistics to be survivable under the most extreme circumstances." In other words, researchers are seeking the best way to use smart technology for maximum operational efficiency in combat situations—with the ability to continue operating at 80-percent capacity with up to 45-percent information infrastructure loss, for example.
UltraLog's not the only project under way, however. Others include Control of Agent-Based Systems (CoABS, also under DARPA), and Log Net, a joint-venture between the University of North Carolina, software vendor Saffron Technology of Morrisville, N.C., and Boeing Inc., headquartered in Chicago, which is developing technology for the U.S. Marine Corps. The Office of Naval Research announced in August 2003 a $5.74 million contract with the University of Southern California and Vanderbilt University to use agent software developed by computer scientists at the two schools to handle Navy and Marine Corps pilots' schedules. There is also a more ambitious and long-term project called Future Combat Systems, fostered by the U.S. Army.
Ultra-quick response
There are two main advantages to using intelligent software agents to help out with dynamic logistics management— that is, logistics management that responds quickly to changing situations.
First, intelligent agents form a collaborative network and can act independently. They don't need to operate in lockstep with a "master" computer that's overseeing everything; they can make a request, say, from a transportation management system to a local shipper's office without going through the head office's computer banks. This is called a distributed system, and it mimics much more tightly the physical structure of a complex logistics network.
Second, intelligent software agents are able to make autonomous decisions that humans would likely make if only they had the time. This is where the technology intersects with artificial intelligence, although on a relatively small scale. Intelligent agents are programmed with parameters that cause them to make what humans would consider "good" decisions, and they interface with humans on overall plans that spring from those decisions.
"What we're trying to do is tackle something that is a critical need, which is to unload humans from a lot of the mundane tasks they need to do, and to get humans and computers to collaborate," says Dr. Andrew Lucas, managing director at Agent Oriented Software Pty Ltd., a Victoria, Australia-based technology firm. "If you could do that, you could get a lot done," adds Lucas, who's currently working for the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory at the Wright-Patterson Air Force base in Ohio, applying intelligent agents to military simulation.
And you could get a lot done fast. Enlisting computers to collaborate and make decisions lets users create a top-level logistics plan for a major maneuver in under an hour instead of the weeks it would take using humans alone. The USC/Vanderbilt program researchers reckon intelligent software cuts down the time needed to produce a daily schedule for AV8-B Harrier jump jets from six hours to four minutes.
Furthermore, intelligent software gives users greater ability to predict and limit the loss of operability caused by damage to the logistics system. The DARPA UltraLog program stresses the capability to build clusters of intelligent software agents that adapt so they can function in damaged and stressed environments. The military needs these capabilities more than anyone else because, for them, a logistics hiccup might mean losing an entire port or fleet of aircraft.
Greis says that the Future Combat System will also concentrate on smart ways of figuring out when and how to restock supplies in the field. "What they'd like to do is to make a lot of the logistics processes—re-supply, moving materiel from boat to shore—as autonomous and automated as possible. Right now, someone gets on the horn and says: I need such and such, and they're just responding. What they'd like to do is to develop agent systems that are more anticipatory and also respond autonomously," says Greis.
Greis describes one test project conducted recently, where vehicles in the battlefield were fitted with sensors that relayed information about engine temperatures, water and oil levels and so on. The software agents made their own decisions about how much to re-supply, who would do it, when it would be done and how long it was going to take. "We've developed a system with mobile agents, learning agents, collaborative agents that work together to manage the logistics," says Greis. "We're moving away from the push model to more of a pull model of supply. It's the same concept as the commercial supply chain."
Other military forces are catching on, too. Dr. Lucas is doing simulation work for the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL), part of the UK's Ministry of Defence. Lucas is also working with the Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO) in Australia to apply his company's agent product to unmanned air vehicle mission management. The firm is also working with the military in Canada and France.
Beginning of a beautiful friendship
Lucas is confident this smart technology will end up in the commercial sector, but he doesn't expect to see widescale adoption for five years or so. "It's not being used in the commercial sector, but it's close," he says. "As a technologist, I recognize that risk management is a big element in introducing new technologies. It's about showing people you have a plan for proving the technology and reducing the risk to the customer, over a number of years, and we've chosen to do that with the military first."
Part of the problem is that the technology's not quite ready for prime time. "We don't want to minimize the extent to which we think this would be useful in the commercial world," says Tony Rozga, research fellow at LMI Government Consulting, a not-for-profit government consulting firm based in McLean, Va., that supports the UltraLog project. "It's just not there yet." LMI and DARPA have worked together to develop Cougaar, a computer architecture for distributed agents. Notably, it's been made "open source"—that is, non proprietary—to encourage commercial application.
Saffron Technology's co-founder, chairman and chief scientist, Manny Aparicio, says one obstacle to adoption in the commercial sector is the issue of trust, especially with learning agents—ones that gather information about habitual human preferences and responses over time. People are nervous about delegating responsibility to a piece of software, Aparicio says. But, once they learn to trust it, things change. "The user can have it set so it just makes recommendations, but then they might get bored seeing it's right all the time and let it build a whole re-supply strategy," Aparicio says. There's always a safety net, he adds. "Whenever an agent sees a situation it doesn't know, it can still send an exception back."
Meanwhile, Greis's Center for Logistics and Digital Strategy's new "Intelligent Enterprise Initiative" aims to help industry leverage advances in digital technology, especially intelligent agents, to redesign their business processes. Greis says the commercial logistics sector is still wrestling with collecting sufficiently fine-grain data to feed to intelligent agents—something the military is far ahead on. "As you get all this real-time information, the agents are going to become tools for interpreting that," Greis says. "So people are focused on the RFID part of the puzzle [for now], but ultimately the RFID and agents will be brought together."
What is intelligent software?
Intelligent software agents are a form of artificial intelligence —software packets that act as autonomous decision- making entities, capable of coming up with solutions to problems and acting on them automatically. Think of the job performed by a travel agent hired by a business manager who needs to schedule a meeting. The manager contacts the travel agent to deal with flight schedules and make rental car and hotel arrangements. The travel agent then works independently with the manager's assistant—who's planning other details of the meeting, such as time and the list of attendees— to coordinate efforts so that they fit in with personal schedules, location information, the other attendees and even the weather.
To the manager, the end result, ideally, is a simple set of outcomes—flights, hotel booking, a reserved conference room full of people he wants to meet with. But the travel agent and assistant have collaborated in choosing these outcomes from an almost infinite number of possibilities, many of them interrelated. Change one factor and you change others—flying direct rather than to the local airport means renting a car. A single hiccup can send the whole process back to square one—a crucial client becomes unavailable on those dates. And so on. People respond and make decisions as the situation changes.
Software agents do the same job. They are goal-oriented, autonomous, collaborative, adaptive, proactive and mobile. Further, they allow "systems of systems," meaning you can link any number of agents together to get on with highly complex and widely distributed series of tasks. In practical logistics operations, such as a theater of war, that means you can have data and business processes distributed throughout the operation, instead of centralized data warehouses with longreach data feeds. This makes the flow of information adaptable to fast-changing environments, according to DARPA. It's also more robust and more reliable.
Congestion on U.S. highways is costing the trucking industry big, according to research from the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), released today.
The group found that traffic congestion on U.S. highways added $108.8 billion in costs to the trucking industry in 2022, a record high. The information comes from ATRI’s Cost of Congestion study, which is part of the organization’s ongoing highway performance measurement research.
Total hours of congestion fell slightly compared to 2021 due to softening freight market conditions, but the cost of operating a truck increased at a much higher rate, according to the research. As a result, the overall cost of congestion increased by 15% year-over-year—a level equivalent to more than 430,000 commercial truck drivers sitting idle for one work year and an average cost of $7,588 for every registered combination truck.
The analysis also identified metropolitan delays and related impacts, showing that the top 10 most-congested states each experienced added costs of more than $8 billion. That list was led by Texas, at $9.17 billion in added costs; California, at $8.77 billion; and Florida, $8.44 billion. Rounding out the top 10 list were New York, Georgia, New Jersey, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, and Tennessee. Combined, the top 10 states account for more than half of the trucking industry’s congestion costs nationwide—52%, according to the research.
The metro areas with the highest congestion costs include New York City, $6.68 billion; Miami, $3.2 billion; and Chicago, $3.14 billion.
ATRI’s analysis also found that the trucking industry wasted more than 6.4 billion gallons of diesel fuel in 2022 due to congestion, resulting in additional fuel costs of $32.1 billion.
ATRI used a combination of data sources, including its truck GPS database and Operational Costs study benchmarks, to calculate the impacts of trucking delays on major U.S. roadways.
There’s a photo from 1971 that John Kent, professor of supply chain management at the University of Arkansas, likes to show. It’s of a shaggy-haired 18-year-old named Glenn Cowan grinning at three-time world table tennis champion Zhuang Zedong, while holding a silk tapestry Zhuang had just given him. Cowan was a member of the U.S. table tennis team who participated in the 1971 World Table Tennis Championships in Nagoya, Japan. Story has it that one morning, he overslept and missed his bus to the tournament and had to hitch a ride with the Chinese national team and met and connected with Zhuang.
Cowan and Zhuang’s interaction led to an invitation for the U.S. team to visit China. At the time, the two countries were just beginning to emerge from a 20-year period of decidedly frosty relations, strict travel bans, and trade restrictions. The highly publicized trip signaled a willingness on both sides to renew relations and launched the term “pingpong diplomacy.”
Kent, who is a senior fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations, believes the photograph is a good reminder that some 50-odd years ago, the economies of the United States and China were not as tightly interwoven as they are today. At the time, the Nixon administration was looking to form closer political and economic ties between the two countries in hopes of reducing chances of future conflict (and to weaken alliances among Communist countries).
The signals coming out of Washington and Beijing are now, of course, much different than they were in the early 1970s. Instead of advocating for better relations, political rhetoric focuses on the need for the U.S. to “decouple” from China. Both Republicans and Democrats have warned that the U.S. economy is too dependent on goods manufactured in China. They see this dependency as a threat to economic strength, American jobs, supply chain resiliency, and national security.
Supply chain professionals, however, know that extricating ourselves from our reliance on Chinese manufacturing is easier said than done. Many pundits push for a “China + 1” strategy, where companies diversify their manufacturing and sourcing options beyond China. But in reality, that “plus one” is often a Chinese company operating in a different country or a non-Chinese manufacturer that is still heavily dependent on material or subcomponents made in China.
This is the problem when supply chain decisions are made on a global scale without input from supply chain professionals. In an article in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Kent argues that, “The discussions on supply chains mainly take place between government officials who typically bring many other competing issues and agendas to the table. Corporate entities—the individuals and companies directly impacted by supply chains—tend to be under-represented in the conversation.”
Kent is a proponent of what he calls “supply chain diplomacy,” where experts from academia and industry from the U.S. and China work collaboratively to create better, more efficient global supply chains. Take, for example, the “Peace Beans” project that Kent is involved with. This project, jointly formed by Zhejiang University and the Bush China Foundation, proposes balancing supply chains by exporting soybeans from Arkansas to tofu producers in China’s Yunnan province, and, in return, importing coffee beans grown in Yunnan to coffee roasters in Arkansas. Kent believes the operation could even use the same transportation equipment.
The benefits of working collaboratively—instead of continuing to build friction in the supply chain through tariffs and adversarial relationships—are numerous, according to Kent and his colleagues. They believe it would be much better if the two major world economies worked together on issues like global inflation, climate change, and artificial intelligence.
And such relations could play a significant role in strengthening world peace, particularly in light of ongoing tensions over Taiwan. Because, as Kent writes, “The 19th-century idea that ‘When goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will’ is as true today as ever. Perhaps more so.”
Hyster-Yale Materials Handling today announced its plans to fulfill the domestic manufacturing requirements of the Build America, Buy America (BABA) Act for certain portions of its lineup of forklift trucks and container handling equipment.
That means the Greenville, North Carolina-based company now plans to expand its existing American manufacturing with a targeted set of high-capacity models, including electric options, that align with the needs of infrastructure projects subject to BABA requirements. The company’s plans include determining the optimal production location in the United States, strategically expanding sourcing agreements to meet local material requirements, and further developing electric power options for high-capacity equipment.
As a part of the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the BABA Act aims to increase the use of American-made materials in federally funded infrastructure projects across the U.S., Hyster-Yale says. It was enacted as part of a broader effort to boost domestic manufacturing and economic growth, and mandates that federal dollars allocated to infrastructure – such as roads, bridges, ports and public transit systems – must prioritize materials produced in the USA, including critical items like steel, iron and various construction materials.
Hyster-Yale’s footprint in the U.S. is spread across 10 locations, including three manufacturing facilities.
“Our leadership is fully invested in meeting the needs of businesses that require BABA-compliant material handling solutions,” Tony Salgado, Hyster-Yale’s chief operating officer, said in a release. “We are working to partner with our key domestic suppliers, as well as identifying how best to leverage our own American manufacturing footprint to deliver a competitive solution for our customers and stakeholders. But beyond mere compliance, and in line with the many areas of our business where we are evolving to better support our customers, our commitment remains steadfast. We are dedicated to delivering industry-leading standards in design, durability and performance — qualities that have become synonymous with our brands worldwide and that our customers have come to rely on and expect.”
In a separate move, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) also gave its approval for the state to advance its Heavy-Duty Omnibus Rule, which is crafted to significantly reduce smog-forming nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from new heavy-duty, diesel-powered trucks.
Both rules are intended to deliver health benefits to California citizens affected by vehicle pollution, according to the environmental group Earthjustice. If the state gets federal approval for the final steps to become law, the rules mean that cars on the road in California will largely be zero-emissions a generation from now in the 2050s, accounting for the average vehicle lifespan of vehicles with internal combustion engine (ICE) power sold before that 2035 date.
“This might read like checking a bureaucratic box, but EPA’s approval is a critical step forward in protecting our lungs from pollution and our wallets from the expenses of combustion fuels,” Paul Cort, director of Earthjustice’s Right To Zero campaign, said in a release. “The gradual shift in car sales to zero-emissions models will cut smog and household costs while growing California’s clean energy workforce. Cutting truck pollution will help clear our skies of smog. EPA should now approve the remaining authorization requests from California to allow the state to clean its air and protect its residents.”
However, the truck drivers' industry group Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) pushed back against the federal decision allowing the Omnibus Low-NOx rule to advance. "The Omnibus Low-NOx waiver for California calls into question the policymaking process under the Biden administration's EPA. Purposefully injecting uncertainty into a $588 billion American industry is bad for our economy and makes no meaningful progress towards purported environmental goals," (OOIDA) President Todd Spencer said in a release. "EPA's credibility outside of radical environmental circles would have been better served by working with regulated industries rather than ramming through last-minute special interest favors. We look forward to working with the Trump administration's EPA in good faith towards achievable environmental outcomes.”
Editor's note:This article was revised on December 18 to add reaction from OOIDA.
A Canadian startup that provides AI-powered logistics solutions has gained $5.5 million in seed funding to support its concept of creating a digital platform for global trade, according to Toronto-based Starboard.
The round was led by Eclipse, with participation from previous backers Garuda Ventures and Everywhere Ventures. The firm says it will use its new backing to expand its engineering team in Toronto and accelerate its AI-driven product development to simplify supply chain complexities.
According to Starboard, the logistics industry is under immense pressure to adapt to the growing complexity of global trade, which has hit recent hurdles such as the strike at U.S. east and gulf coast ports. That situation calls for innovative solutions to streamline operations and reduce costs for operators.
As a potential solution, Starboard offers its flagship product, which it defines as an AI-based transportation management system (TMS) and rate management system that helps mid-sized freight forwarders operate more efficiently and win more business. More broadly, Starboard says it is building the virtual infrastructure for global trade, allowing freight companies to leverage AI and machine learning to optimize operations such as processing shipments in real time, reconciling invoices, and following up on payments.
"This investment is a pivotal step in our mission to unlock the power of AI for our customers," said Sumeet Trehan, Co-Founder and CEO of Starboard. "Global trade has long been plagued by inefficiencies that drive up costs and reduce competitiveness. Our platform is designed to empower SMB freight forwarders—the backbone of more than $20 trillion in global trade and $1 trillion in logistics spend—with the tools they need to thrive in this complex ecosystem."