The smartest bomb or the stealthiest cruise missile won't do a warfighter much good if the launcher is sidelined for repairs. A look at the Pentagon's bold new plan for keeping its weapons systems combat ready.
Steve Geary is adjunct faculty at the University of Tennessee's Haaslam College of Business and is a lecturer at The Gordon Institute at Tufts University. He is the President of the Supply Chain Visions family of companies, consultancies that work across the government sector. Steve is a contributing editor at DC Velocity, and editor-at-large for CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly.
With 300 ships, 15,000 aircraft, 900 strategic missiles and nearly 400,000 ground vehicles of one type or another scattered around the globe, how do you keep them ready for combat? That's the quandary of the U.S. military. For decades, it has struggled to cut the amount of time its equipment spends in the military equivalent of the breakdown lane. After all, the smartest bomb or the stealthiest cruise missile in the world doesn't do a warfighter much good if, say, the launcher is unavailable for combat.
But today things are starting to improve. Warfighters—whether on the land, at sea, or in the air—are more likely to have equipment mission capable, ready for action than in the past. System reliability is improving. Vehicles that go down for maintenance or repairs are being returned to service more swiftly. Overall operational availability—the percentage of a fleet of weapons systems ready for combat—has in some cases moved north of 90 percent. And in those cases, the military's weapons system support costs have remained largely unchanged.
What has changed is how the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) buys product support services for military equipment. Abandoning decades- old habits, the Pentagon has adopted a bold new plan to keep complex systems combat ready. It's using the new system with fighter jets. And submarines. And tanks. And unmanned aerial drones. As a matter of fact, the guys at the top are looking to apply it to all new weapons systems.
They call it performance-based logistics (PBL).
Pay for performance
Performance-based logistics represents a breakthrough in the way the DOD buys and pays for support services. Under this approach, the DOD contracts with a private company for product support, but instead of paying individually for things like parts, service and engineering time, it pays based on a fee per unit of usage and leaves it up to the supplier to keep the whole system running. In other words, the DOD no longer pays for work done on, say, a fighter jet but for work done by that jet.
At its most basic level, PBL isn't much different from an automaker's extended care warranty. The consumer buys a warranty at a fixed price, and it's up to the car manufacturer to figure out how to provide post-sales support and maintenance. Replace the family sedan with something like the Joint Strike Fighter, and that, in simple terms, is PBL.
It's important to note that PBL is much more than the swift, reliable delivery of repair parts. The ultimate objective is to maximize what quality expert Joseph Juran termed a product's "fitness for use."To go back to the analogy of the family sedan, a consumer buying a new car might be reasonably happy with a deal that guarantees the speedy delivery of repair parts. But that consumer would be happier still if the car didn't break down at all; or if it came with a guarantee that if it malfunctioned, it would be brought back on line within a specified timeframe; or if it came with a guarantee that it would require less maintenance than other models to deliver the same level of performance. PBL is designed to cost effectively drive fitness for use.
A whole new world
To say that PBL represents a departure from past DOD practice would be to seriously understate the case. In the past, the military dictated how private companies would handle support and paid for the service on a cost-plus basis (paying the costs of materials and labor plus a fixed percentage profit for the contractor, for example). Among other flaws (this was the same kind of system responsible for the infamous $400 toilet seat), this practice offered virtually no incentive for contractors to improve support processes or overall system reliability and performance.Nor did it hold contractors accountable for the one thing that matters, the product's ability to perform the mission. If the contractor followed the contract's directions and met the transactional requirements, it got paid.
PBL changes all that. Now the DOD only dictates the desired outcomes related to the performance of the system in the field. It also pays based on that outcome. In fact, the most effective PBL contracts include only minimal discussion of the processes contractors must follow to meet the requirements. Instead, they focus on system performance expectations. It's up to the contractor to figure out how to put the supporting pieces together to achieve the goals.
The process typically begins with the development of the contract's objectives. The program manager for the government, who manages support throughout the life cycle of the system, works with the warfighter team—whether soldiers in the Army, sailors in the Navy, airmen/airwomen in the Air Force, or Marines—to determine the specific system performance outcomes required. That program manager then passes along the end requirements to the contractor (who is usually, but not always, the system's manufacturer), using a performance-based logistics contract.
The lead contractor, in turn, passes these requirements back through the supply chain to its own suppliers, including some that are part of the government support infrastructure (e.g., service-owned maintenance depots). It is free to decide—within statutory, regulatory and policy constraints—how it will fulfill the contract and with whom it will work, but the contractor at the top of the pyramid (known as the Product Support Integrator) is ultimately accountable to the government. And what it's accountable for is the system performance delivered, not the activities required to achieve it. If the supported system performs in the field, the contractor earns revenue. If the system performs well in the field, the contractor may earn bonuses. If it doesn't, the contractor takes a financial hit and will have to answer to both the government and its shareholders.
Evolution, not revolution
One of the earliest examples of PBL dates back to 1996 and the DOD's decision to close the Sacramento Air Logistics Center, a major support site for the Air Force F-117 Nighthawk stealth fighter. As with any base closure, most people saw the announcement as an economic blow to the region. But one enterprising corporation, Lockheed Martin, saw it as an opportunity.
Shortly after the news broke, Lockheed Martin, which is the Nighthawk's manufacturer, went to the Air Force with an unconventional—yet attractive—proposal. Lockheed Martin would take over the majority of F-117 non-core support functions (that is, those not handled exclusively by the military for strategic reasons) under a system that tied its compensation to its achievement of specific support performance targets. The Air Force liked the concept and implemented the new "performance based" approach in 1998. Today, Lockheed Martin is responsible for almost all system level support of the F-117.
This contract laid the conceptual foundation for many of the now standard components of PBL. In fact, this early success—along with many other programs that have followed—has helped to make PBL the preferred logistics support strategy for the U.S. DOD. Currently, there are more than 200 PBL contracts in place across the DOD, including all uniformed services.
That's not to say the concept hasn't evolved over the years, however. PBL is not a "one and done" approach. It is a journey where all parties now want the same thing: cost effective and reliable system performance. According to Jim Hall, acting assistant deputy under secretary of defense for logistics plans and programs, the senior DOD official responsible for PBL, "Maximizing PBL benefits will continue to drive us to develop a more complete understanding of the risks and uncertainties that must be addressed, in order to expand adoption and meet the requirements." As the DOD has gained experience with PBL programs, it has modified performance objectives where appropriate and become more sophisticated in its approach to PBL contracting.
The payoffs
Word that virtually every new major DOD system acquisition is being designed and fielded with the expectation that operational support will be provided under a PBL contract will come as no surprise to anyone familiar with PBL's results. The success of performance-based logistics in improving readiness and availability has been proven time and time again.
In the case of the F/A-18 fighter aircraft alone, PBL has made an astounding difference, says Larry Garvey, director of the supply chain solutions division at the Naval Inventory Control Point. Garvey reports that the Navy has seen material availability improve from 67 percent with the F/A-18 C/D fighter aircraft when support was provided under traditional contracts to 85 percent for the F/A-18 E/F aircraft under PBL. In fact, the mission-capable rates of the F/A-18 E/F have improved by over 10 percent, as compared with the earlier versions.
It's the same story with the Aegis cruiser missile, reports Lou Kratz, former assistant deputy under secretary of defense for logistics plans and programs and a long-time champion of PBL. Kratz says material availability has soared from 62 to 94 percent for the Aegis cruiser under PBL. That has contributed to an overall improvement in the Aegis system's availability.
For another example of how PBL can help solve problems with weapons system downtime, you need look no further than the PBL agreement struck with engine-maker Pratt & Whitney. Pratt & Whitney won its first PBL contract to provide propulsion system support for the C-17 aircraft in 1997 (as one of the suppliers to the lead contractor, Boeing), and its performance has earned it follow-on contracts and extensions ever since. Under terms of the deal, Pratt & Whitney has agreed to keep a certain number of its F117 engines available at specified locations ready for use at all times. In return, Pratt & Whitney is paid a fixed rate per engine cycle (as determined by a complex formula that weights missions and flight hours, along with takeoffs, landings, environment and other factors), rather than for the parts and effort needed to keep the engine in working condition.
The results have been extraordinary. As the accompanying graph illustrates, the engines' "time on wing" (the interval between service events that require an engine's removal from the wing) has soared under PBL, far exceeding the Air Force's expectations. For the DOD, that has translated into a significant increase in aircraft uptime and reliability at no added cost.
It's the customer, stupid
Of course, performance-based logistics initiatives need not be—and have not been—limited to the defense world. The concept can be applied in a variety of environments. In fact, it is making inroads in the commercial marketplace. Mark Hillman, a senior supply chain analyst with AMR Research, says he is seeing more and more PBL-like implementations, including full-service leases and warranties. "It's something of a trend," he says, "a movement toward availability- based optimization techniques, driven by a need to meet service-level agreements."
That has profound implications for supply chain management. Performance-based logistics represents an entirely new way of thinking about the supply chain— one where the emphasis shifts to the customer's needs, not the supply chain's performance. In a PBL world, the supply chain manager no longer focuses solely on ways to boost performance against internal measures like fill rates, inventory turns and on-time shipments. Instead, the job is to work as part of a team to meet the end user's needs.
Consider the example of a company that has agreed to provide PBL support for, say, a magnetic resonance imager (MRI). Under a traditional arrangement, if the unit broke down, the supply chain manager would be responsible for seeing that repair parts were shipped within a specified lead time. Under a PBL contract, by contrast, that supply chain manager would be part of a team responsible for doing whatever it took—dispatching field engineers, delivering spare parts, calling in technical experts—to get the equipment operational within a specified window.
And it doesn't stop there. Under PBL, the supply chain manager would also have similar responsibilities when it came to routine maintenance for the MRI, as well as for engineering changes and scheduled upgrades. On top of that, the manager would be accountable for the performance of the company's own suppliers—vendors, carriers, third-party service providers and so forth.
Those new responsibilities are just the half of it. For supply chain managers, a shift to PBL also brings a wholesale change in mission. It's no longer about forecasting what parts your customers will need and faithfully shipping them. It's about understanding the product performance your customer needs and coordinating with your supply chain partners to deliver that support.
mission: possible?
The notion of relying on commercial sources to provide performance- based logistics (PBL) support for weapons systems in the battlespace has triggered much debate. Opponents dismiss the idea as impractical at best, citing concerns such as the safety of contractors on the battlefield and how much support a contractor can realistically provide in hostile deployed environments.
Others see that as a goal well within reach. Based on the Army's experience with its Shadow Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) program, which is currently deployed and operational in Southwest Asia, it appears they may be right.
AAI Corp., the maker of the Shadow, provides support for the vehicle under a PBL contract with the Army. Under that contract, AAI guarantees 85 percent equipment availability—a provision it has consistently managed to meet or exceed. Although Army personnel operate and maintain the system, AAI has contractor field teams on site that provide "over the shoulder" support and rapid access to critical technical information when needed.
Interestingly, although the UAV deal was struck before Operation Iraqi Freedom, the agreement did not have to be rewritten when the conflict broke out, despite an associated increase in flight hours of more than 600 percent. Though it was never intended as a test case for PBL in the battlespace, that appears to be the UAV deal's destiny.
Congestion on U.S. highways is costing the trucking industry big, according to research from the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), released today.
The group found that traffic congestion on U.S. highways added $108.8 billion in costs to the trucking industry in 2022, a record high. The information comes from ATRI’s Cost of Congestion study, which is part of the organization’s ongoing highway performance measurement research.
Total hours of congestion fell slightly compared to 2021 due to softening freight market conditions, but the cost of operating a truck increased at a much higher rate, according to the research. As a result, the overall cost of congestion increased by 15% year-over-year—a level equivalent to more than 430,000 commercial truck drivers sitting idle for one work year and an average cost of $7,588 for every registered combination truck.
The analysis also identified metropolitan delays and related impacts, showing that the top 10 most-congested states each experienced added costs of more than $8 billion. That list was led by Texas, at $9.17 billion in added costs; California, at $8.77 billion; and Florida, $8.44 billion. Rounding out the top 10 list were New York, Georgia, New Jersey, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, and Tennessee. Combined, the top 10 states account for more than half of the trucking industry’s congestion costs nationwide—52%, according to the research.
The metro areas with the highest congestion costs include New York City, $6.68 billion; Miami, $3.2 billion; and Chicago, $3.14 billion.
ATRI’s analysis also found that the trucking industry wasted more than 6.4 billion gallons of diesel fuel in 2022 due to congestion, resulting in additional fuel costs of $32.1 billion.
ATRI used a combination of data sources, including its truck GPS database and Operational Costs study benchmarks, to calculate the impacts of trucking delays on major U.S. roadways.
There’s a photo from 1971 that John Kent, professor of supply chain management at the University of Arkansas, likes to show. It’s of a shaggy-haired 18-year-old named Glenn Cowan grinning at three-time world table tennis champion Zhuang Zedong, while holding a silk tapestry Zhuang had just given him. Cowan was a member of the U.S. table tennis team who participated in the 1971 World Table Tennis Championships in Nagoya, Japan. Story has it that one morning, he overslept and missed his bus to the tournament and had to hitch a ride with the Chinese national team and met and connected with Zhuang.
Cowan and Zhuang’s interaction led to an invitation for the U.S. team to visit China. At the time, the two countries were just beginning to emerge from a 20-year period of decidedly frosty relations, strict travel bans, and trade restrictions. The highly publicized trip signaled a willingness on both sides to renew relations and launched the term “pingpong diplomacy.”
Kent, who is a senior fellow at the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations, believes the photograph is a good reminder that some 50-odd years ago, the economies of the United States and China were not as tightly interwoven as they are today. At the time, the Nixon administration was looking to form closer political and economic ties between the two countries in hopes of reducing chances of future conflict (and to weaken alliances among Communist countries).
The signals coming out of Washington and Beijing are now, of course, much different than they were in the early 1970s. Instead of advocating for better relations, political rhetoric focuses on the need for the U.S. to “decouple” from China. Both Republicans and Democrats have warned that the U.S. economy is too dependent on goods manufactured in China. They see this dependency as a threat to economic strength, American jobs, supply chain resiliency, and national security.
Supply chain professionals, however, know that extricating ourselves from our reliance on Chinese manufacturing is easier said than done. Many pundits push for a “China + 1” strategy, where companies diversify their manufacturing and sourcing options beyond China. But in reality, that “plus one” is often a Chinese company operating in a different country or a non-Chinese manufacturer that is still heavily dependent on material or subcomponents made in China.
This is the problem when supply chain decisions are made on a global scale without input from supply chain professionals. In an article in the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Kent argues that, “The discussions on supply chains mainly take place between government officials who typically bring many other competing issues and agendas to the table. Corporate entities—the individuals and companies directly impacted by supply chains—tend to be under-represented in the conversation.”
Kent is a proponent of what he calls “supply chain diplomacy,” where experts from academia and industry from the U.S. and China work collaboratively to create better, more efficient global supply chains. Take, for example, the “Peace Beans” project that Kent is involved with. This project, jointly formed by Zhejiang University and the Bush China Foundation, proposes balancing supply chains by exporting soybeans from Arkansas to tofu producers in China’s Yunnan province, and, in return, importing coffee beans grown in Yunnan to coffee roasters in Arkansas. Kent believes the operation could even use the same transportation equipment.
The benefits of working collaboratively—instead of continuing to build friction in the supply chain through tariffs and adversarial relationships—are numerous, according to Kent and his colleagues. They believe it would be much better if the two major world economies worked together on issues like global inflation, climate change, and artificial intelligence.
And such relations could play a significant role in strengthening world peace, particularly in light of ongoing tensions over Taiwan. Because, as Kent writes, “The 19th-century idea that ‘When goods don’t cross borders, soldiers will’ is as true today as ever. Perhaps more so.”
Hyster-Yale Materials Handling today announced its plans to fulfill the domestic manufacturing requirements of the Build America, Buy America (BABA) Act for certain portions of its lineup of forklift trucks and container handling equipment.
That means the Greenville, North Carolina-based company now plans to expand its existing American manufacturing with a targeted set of high-capacity models, including electric options, that align with the needs of infrastructure projects subject to BABA requirements. The company’s plans include determining the optimal production location in the United States, strategically expanding sourcing agreements to meet local material requirements, and further developing electric power options for high-capacity equipment.
As a part of the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the BABA Act aims to increase the use of American-made materials in federally funded infrastructure projects across the U.S., Hyster-Yale says. It was enacted as part of a broader effort to boost domestic manufacturing and economic growth, and mandates that federal dollars allocated to infrastructure – such as roads, bridges, ports and public transit systems – must prioritize materials produced in the USA, including critical items like steel, iron and various construction materials.
Hyster-Yale’s footprint in the U.S. is spread across 10 locations, including three manufacturing facilities.
“Our leadership is fully invested in meeting the needs of businesses that require BABA-compliant material handling solutions,” Tony Salgado, Hyster-Yale’s chief operating officer, said in a release. “We are working to partner with our key domestic suppliers, as well as identifying how best to leverage our own American manufacturing footprint to deliver a competitive solution for our customers and stakeholders. But beyond mere compliance, and in line with the many areas of our business where we are evolving to better support our customers, our commitment remains steadfast. We are dedicated to delivering industry-leading standards in design, durability and performance — qualities that have become synonymous with our brands worldwide and that our customers have come to rely on and expect.”
In a separate move, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) also gave its approval for the state to advance its Heavy-Duty Omnibus Rule, which is crafted to significantly reduce smog-forming nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from new heavy-duty, diesel-powered trucks.
Both rules are intended to deliver health benefits to California citizens affected by vehicle pollution, according to the environmental group Earthjustice. If the state gets federal approval for the final steps to become law, the rules mean that cars on the road in California will largely be zero-emissions a generation from now in the 2050s, accounting for the average vehicle lifespan of vehicles with internal combustion engine (ICE) power sold before that 2035 date.
“This might read like checking a bureaucratic box, but EPA’s approval is a critical step forward in protecting our lungs from pollution and our wallets from the expenses of combustion fuels,” Paul Cort, director of Earthjustice’s Right To Zero campaign, said in a release. “The gradual shift in car sales to zero-emissions models will cut smog and household costs while growing California’s clean energy workforce. Cutting truck pollution will help clear our skies of smog. EPA should now approve the remaining authorization requests from California to allow the state to clean its air and protect its residents.”
However, the truck drivers' industry group Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) pushed back against the federal decision allowing the Omnibus Low-NOx rule to advance. "The Omnibus Low-NOx waiver for California calls into question the policymaking process under the Biden administration's EPA. Purposefully injecting uncertainty into a $588 billion American industry is bad for our economy and makes no meaningful progress towards purported environmental goals," (OOIDA) President Todd Spencer said in a release. "EPA's credibility outside of radical environmental circles would have been better served by working with regulated industries rather than ramming through last-minute special interest favors. We look forward to working with the Trump administration's EPA in good faith towards achievable environmental outcomes.”
Editor's note:This article was revised on December 18 to add reaction from OOIDA.
Global trade will see a moderate rebound in 2025, likely growing by 3.6% in volume terms, helped by companies restocking and households renewing purchases of durable goods while reducing spending on services, according to a forecast from trade credit insurer Allianz Trade.
The end of the year for 2024 will also likely be supported by companies rushing to ship goods in anticipation of the higher tariffs likely to be imposed by the coming Trump administration, and other potential disruptions in the coming quarters, the report said.
However, that tailwind for global trade will likely shift to a headwind once the effects of a renewed but contained trade war are felt from the second half of 2025 and in full in 2026. As a result, Allianz Trade has throttled back its predictions, saying that global trade in volume will grow by 2.8% in 2025 (reduced by 0.2 percentage points vs. its previous forecast) and 2.3% in 2026 (reduced by 0.5 percentage points).
The same logic applies to Allianz Trade’s forecast for export prices in U.S. dollars, which the firm has now revised downward to predict growth reaching 2.3% in 2025 (reduced by 1.7 percentage points) and 4.1% in 2026 (reduced by 0.8 percentage points).
In the meantime, the rush to frontload imports into the U.S. is giving freight carriers an early Christmas present. According to Allianz Trade, data released last week showed Chinese exports rising by a robust 6.7% y/y in November. And imports of some consumer goods that have been threatened with a likely 25% tariff under the new Trump administration have outperformed even more, growing by nearly 20% y/y on average between July and September.