The smartest bomb or the stealthiest cruise missile won't do a warfighter much good if the launcher is sidelined for repairs. A look at the Pentagon's bold new plan for keeping its weapons systems combat ready.
Steve Geary is adjunct faculty at the University of Tennessee's Haaslam College of Business and is a lecturer at The Gordon Institute at Tufts University. He is the President of the Supply Chain Visions family of companies, consultancies that work across the government sector. Steve is a contributing editor at DC Velocity, and editor-at-large for CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly.
With 300 ships, 15,000 aircraft, 900 strategic missiles and nearly 400,000 ground vehicles of one type or another scattered around the globe, how do you keep them ready for combat? That's the quandary of the U.S. military. For decades, it has struggled to cut the amount of time its equipment spends in the military equivalent of the breakdown lane. After all, the smartest bomb or the stealthiest cruise missile in the world doesn't do a warfighter much good if, say, the launcher is unavailable for combat.
But today things are starting to improve. Warfighters—whether on the land, at sea, or in the air—are more likely to have equipment mission capable, ready for action than in the past. System reliability is improving. Vehicles that go down for maintenance or repairs are being returned to service more swiftly. Overall operational availability—the percentage of a fleet of weapons systems ready for combat—has in some cases moved north of 90 percent. And in those cases, the military's weapons system support costs have remained largely unchanged.
What has changed is how the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) buys product support services for military equipment. Abandoning decades- old habits, the Pentagon has adopted a bold new plan to keep complex systems combat ready. It's using the new system with fighter jets. And submarines. And tanks. And unmanned aerial drones. As a matter of fact, the guys at the top are looking to apply it to all new weapons systems.
They call it performance-based logistics (PBL).
Pay for performance
Performance-based logistics represents a breakthrough in the way the DOD buys and pays for support services. Under this approach, the DOD contracts with a private company for product support, but instead of paying individually for things like parts, service and engineering time, it pays based on a fee per unit of usage and leaves it up to the supplier to keep the whole system running. In other words, the DOD no longer pays for work done on, say, a fighter jet but for work done by that jet.
At its most basic level, PBL isn't much different from an automaker's extended care warranty. The consumer buys a warranty at a fixed price, and it's up to the car manufacturer to figure out how to provide post-sales support and maintenance. Replace the family sedan with something like the Joint Strike Fighter, and that, in simple terms, is PBL.
It's important to note that PBL is much more than the swift, reliable delivery of repair parts. The ultimate objective is to maximize what quality expert Joseph Juran termed a product's "fitness for use."To go back to the analogy of the family sedan, a consumer buying a new car might be reasonably happy with a deal that guarantees the speedy delivery of repair parts. But that consumer would be happier still if the car didn't break down at all; or if it came with a guarantee that if it malfunctioned, it would be brought back on line within a specified timeframe; or if it came with a guarantee that it would require less maintenance than other models to deliver the same level of performance. PBL is designed to cost effectively drive fitness for use.
A whole new world
To say that PBL represents a departure from past DOD practice would be to seriously understate the case. In the past, the military dictated how private companies would handle support and paid for the service on a cost-plus basis (paying the costs of materials and labor plus a fixed percentage profit for the contractor, for example). Among other flaws (this was the same kind of system responsible for the infamous $400 toilet seat), this practice offered virtually no incentive for contractors to improve support processes or overall system reliability and performance.Nor did it hold contractors accountable for the one thing that matters, the product's ability to perform the mission. If the contractor followed the contract's directions and met the transactional requirements, it got paid.
PBL changes all that. Now the DOD only dictates the desired outcomes related to the performance of the system in the field. It also pays based on that outcome. In fact, the most effective PBL contracts include only minimal discussion of the processes contractors must follow to meet the requirements. Instead, they focus on system performance expectations. It's up to the contractor to figure out how to put the supporting pieces together to achieve the goals.
The process typically begins with the development of the contract's objectives. The program manager for the government, who manages support throughout the life cycle of the system, works with the warfighter team—whether soldiers in the Army, sailors in the Navy, airmen/airwomen in the Air Force, or Marines—to determine the specific system performance outcomes required. That program manager then passes along the end requirements to the contractor (who is usually, but not always, the system's manufacturer), using a performance-based logistics contract.
The lead contractor, in turn, passes these requirements back through the supply chain to its own suppliers, including some that are part of the government support infrastructure (e.g., service-owned maintenance depots). It is free to decide—within statutory, regulatory and policy constraints—how it will fulfill the contract and with whom it will work, but the contractor at the top of the pyramid (known as the Product Support Integrator) is ultimately accountable to the government. And what it's accountable for is the system performance delivered, not the activities required to achieve it. If the supported system performs in the field, the contractor earns revenue. If the system performs well in the field, the contractor may earn bonuses. If it doesn't, the contractor takes a financial hit and will have to answer to both the government and its shareholders.
Evolution, not revolution
One of the earliest examples of PBL dates back to 1996 and the DOD's decision to close the Sacramento Air Logistics Center, a major support site for the Air Force F-117 Nighthawk stealth fighter. As with any base closure, most people saw the announcement as an economic blow to the region. But one enterprising corporation, Lockheed Martin, saw it as an opportunity.
Shortly after the news broke, Lockheed Martin, which is the Nighthawk's manufacturer, went to the Air Force with an unconventional—yet attractive—proposal. Lockheed Martin would take over the majority of F-117 non-core support functions (that is, those not handled exclusively by the military for strategic reasons) under a system that tied its compensation to its achievement of specific support performance targets. The Air Force liked the concept and implemented the new "performance based" approach in 1998. Today, Lockheed Martin is responsible for almost all system level support of the F-117.
This contract laid the conceptual foundation for many of the now standard components of PBL. In fact, this early success—along with many other programs that have followed—has helped to make PBL the preferred logistics support strategy for the U.S. DOD. Currently, there are more than 200 PBL contracts in place across the DOD, including all uniformed services.
That's not to say the concept hasn't evolved over the years, however. PBL is not a "one and done" approach. It is a journey where all parties now want the same thing: cost effective and reliable system performance. According to Jim Hall, acting assistant deputy under secretary of defense for logistics plans and programs, the senior DOD official responsible for PBL, "Maximizing PBL benefits will continue to drive us to develop a more complete understanding of the risks and uncertainties that must be addressed, in order to expand adoption and meet the requirements." As the DOD has gained experience with PBL programs, it has modified performance objectives where appropriate and become more sophisticated in its approach to PBL contracting.
The payoffs
Word that virtually every new major DOD system acquisition is being designed and fielded with the expectation that operational support will be provided under a PBL contract will come as no surprise to anyone familiar with PBL's results. The success of performance-based logistics in improving readiness and availability has been proven time and time again.
In the case of the F/A-18 fighter aircraft alone, PBL has made an astounding difference, says Larry Garvey, director of the supply chain solutions division at the Naval Inventory Control Point. Garvey reports that the Navy has seen material availability improve from 67 percent with the F/A-18 C/D fighter aircraft when support was provided under traditional contracts to 85 percent for the F/A-18 E/F aircraft under PBL. In fact, the mission-capable rates of the F/A-18 E/F have improved by over 10 percent, as compared with the earlier versions.
It's the same story with the Aegis cruiser missile, reports Lou Kratz, former assistant deputy under secretary of defense for logistics plans and programs and a long-time champion of PBL. Kratz says material availability has soared from 62 to 94 percent for the Aegis cruiser under PBL. That has contributed to an overall improvement in the Aegis system's availability.
For another example of how PBL can help solve problems with weapons system downtime, you need look no further than the PBL agreement struck with engine-maker Pratt & Whitney. Pratt & Whitney won its first PBL contract to provide propulsion system support for the C-17 aircraft in 1997 (as one of the suppliers to the lead contractor, Boeing), and its performance has earned it follow-on contracts and extensions ever since. Under terms of the deal, Pratt & Whitney has agreed to keep a certain number of its F117 engines available at specified locations ready for use at all times. In return, Pratt & Whitney is paid a fixed rate per engine cycle (as determined by a complex formula that weights missions and flight hours, along with takeoffs, landings, environment and other factors), rather than for the parts and effort needed to keep the engine in working condition.
The results have been extraordinary. As the accompanying graph illustrates, the engines' "time on wing" (the interval between service events that require an engine's removal from the wing) has soared under PBL, far exceeding the Air Force's expectations. For the DOD, that has translated into a significant increase in aircraft uptime and reliability at no added cost.
It's the customer, stupid
Of course, performance-based logistics initiatives need not be—and have not been—limited to the defense world. The concept can be applied in a variety of environments. In fact, it is making inroads in the commercial marketplace. Mark Hillman, a senior supply chain analyst with AMR Research, says he is seeing more and more PBL-like implementations, including full-service leases and warranties. "It's something of a trend," he says, "a movement toward availability- based optimization techniques, driven by a need to meet service-level agreements."
That has profound implications for supply chain management. Performance-based logistics represents an entirely new way of thinking about the supply chain— one where the emphasis shifts to the customer's needs, not the supply chain's performance. In a PBL world, the supply chain manager no longer focuses solely on ways to boost performance against internal measures like fill rates, inventory turns and on-time shipments. Instead, the job is to work as part of a team to meet the end user's needs.
Consider the example of a company that has agreed to provide PBL support for, say, a magnetic resonance imager (MRI). Under a traditional arrangement, if the unit broke down, the supply chain manager would be responsible for seeing that repair parts were shipped within a specified lead time. Under a PBL contract, by contrast, that supply chain manager would be part of a team responsible for doing whatever it took—dispatching field engineers, delivering spare parts, calling in technical experts—to get the equipment operational within a specified window.
And it doesn't stop there. Under PBL, the supply chain manager would also have similar responsibilities when it came to routine maintenance for the MRI, as well as for engineering changes and scheduled upgrades. On top of that, the manager would be accountable for the performance of the company's own suppliers—vendors, carriers, third-party service providers and so forth.
Those new responsibilities are just the half of it. For supply chain managers, a shift to PBL also brings a wholesale change in mission. It's no longer about forecasting what parts your customers will need and faithfully shipping them. It's about understanding the product performance your customer needs and coordinating with your supply chain partners to deliver that support.
mission: possible?
The notion of relying on commercial sources to provide performance- based logistics (PBL) support for weapons systems in the battlespace has triggered much debate. Opponents dismiss the idea as impractical at best, citing concerns such as the safety of contractors on the battlefield and how much support a contractor can realistically provide in hostile deployed environments.
Others see that as a goal well within reach. Based on the Army's experience with its Shadow Tactical Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) program, which is currently deployed and operational in Southwest Asia, it appears they may be right.
AAI Corp., the maker of the Shadow, provides support for the vehicle under a PBL contract with the Army. Under that contract, AAI guarantees 85 percent equipment availability—a provision it has consistently managed to meet or exceed. Although Army personnel operate and maintain the system, AAI has contractor field teams on site that provide "over the shoulder" support and rapid access to critical technical information when needed.
Interestingly, although the UAV deal was struck before Operation Iraqi Freedom, the agreement did not have to be rewritten when the conflict broke out, despite an associated increase in flight hours of more than 600 percent. Though it was never intended as a test case for PBL in the battlespace, that appears to be the UAV deal's destiny.
Businesses engaged in international trade face three major supply chain hurdles as they head into 2025: the disruptions caused by Chinese New Year (CNY), the looming threat of potential tariffs on foreign-made products that could be imposed by the incoming Trump Administration, and the unresolved contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX), according to an analysis from trucking and logistics provider Averitt.
Each of those factors could lead to significant shipping delays, production slowdowns, and increased costs, Averitt said.
First, Chinese New Year 2025 begins on January 29, prompting factories across China and other regions to shut down for weeks, typically causing production to halt and freight demand to skyrocket. The ripple effects can range from increased shipping costs to extended lead times, disrupting even the most well-planned operations. To prepare for that event, shippers should place orders early, build inventory buffers, secure freight space in advance, diversify shipping modes, and communicate with logistics providers, Averitt said.
Second, new or increased tariffs on foreign-made goods could drive up the cost of imports, disrupt established supply chains, and create uncertainty in the marketplace. In turn, shippers may face freight rate volatility and capacity constraints as businesses rush to stockpile inventory ahead of tariff deadlines. To navigate these challenges, shippers should prepare advance shipments and inventory stockpiling, diversity sourcing, negotiate supplier agreements, explore domestic production, and leverage financial strategies.
Third, unresolved contract negotiations between the ILA and the USMX will come to a head by January 15, when the current contract expires. Labor action or strikes could cause severe disruptions at East and Gulf Coast ports, triggering widespread delays and bottlenecks across the supply chain. To prepare for the worst, shippers should adopt a similar strategy to the other potential January threats: collaborate early, secure freight, diversify supply chains, and monitor policy changes.
According to Averitt, companies can cushion the impact of all three challenges by deploying a seamless, end-to-end solution covering the entire path from customs clearance to final-mile delivery. That strategy can help businesses to store inventory closer to their customers, mitigate delays, and reduce costs associated with supply chain disruptions. And combined with proactive communication and real-time visibility tools, the approach allows companies to maintain control and keep their supply chains resilient in the face of global uncertainties, Averitt said.
A move by federal regulators to reinforce requirements for broker transparency in freight transactions is stirring debate among transportation groups, after the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) published a “notice of proposed rulemaking” this week.
According to FMCSA, its draft rule would strive to make broker transparency more common, requiring greater sharing of the material information necessary for transportation industry parties to make informed business decisions and to support the efficient resolution of disputes.
The proposed rule titled “Transparency in Property Broker Transactions” would address what FMCSA calls the lack of access to information among shippers and motor carriers that can impact the fairness and efficiency of the transportation system, and would reframe broker transparency as a regulatory duty imposed on brokers, with the goal of deterring non-compliance. Specifically, the move would require brokers to keep electronic records, and require brokers to provide transaction records to motor carriers and shippers upon request and within 48 hours of that request.
Under federal regulatory processes, public comments on the move are due by January 21, 2025. However, transportation groups are not waiting on the sidelines to voice their opinions.
According to the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), an industry group representing the third-party logistics (3PL) industry, the potential rule is “misguided overreach” that fails to address the more pressing issue of freight fraud. In TIA’s view, broker transparency regulation is “obsolete and un-American,” and has no place in today’s “highly transparent” marketplace. “This proposal represents a misguided focus on outdated and unnecessary regulations rather than tackling issues that genuinely threaten the safety and efficiency of our nation’s supply chains,” TIA said.
But trucker trade group the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) welcomed the proposed rule, which it said would ensure that brokers finally play by the rules. “We appreciate that FMCSA incorporated input from our petition, including a requirement to make records available electronically and emphasizing that brokers have a duty to comply with regulations. As FMCSA noted, broker transparency is necessary for a fair, efficient transportation system, and is especially important to help carriers defend themselves against alleged claims on a shipment,” OOIDA President Todd Spencer said in a statement.
Additional pushback came from the Small Business in Transportation Coalition (SBTC), a network of transportation professionals in small business, which said the potential rule didn’t go far enough. “This is too little too late and is disappointing. It preserves the status quo, which caters to Big Broker & TIA. There is no question now that FMCSA has been captured by Big Broker. Truckers and carriers must now come out in droves and file comments in full force against this starting tomorrow,” SBTC executive director James Lamb said in a LinkedIn post.
Bloomington, Indiana-based FTR said its Trucking Conditions Index declined in September to -2.47 from -1.39 in August as weakness in the principal freight dynamics – freight rates, utilization, and volume – offset lower fuel costs and slightly less unfavorable financing costs.
Those negative numbers are nothing new—the TCI has been positive only twice – in May and June of this year – since April 2022, but the group’s current forecast still envisions consistently positive readings through at least a two-year forecast horizon.
“Aside from a near-term boost mostly related to falling diesel prices, we have not changed our Trucking Conditions Index forecast significantly in the wake of the election,” Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said in a release. “The outlook continues to be more favorable for carriers than what they have experienced for well over two years. Our analysis indicates gradual but steadily rising capacity utilization leading to stronger freight rates in 2025.”
But FTR said its forecast remains unchanged. “Just like everyone else, we’ll be watching closely to see exactly what trade and other economic policies are implemented and over what time frame. Some freight disruptions are likely due to tariffs and other factors, but it is not yet clear that those actions will do more than shift the timing of activity,” Vise said.
The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. Combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health, a positive score represents good, optimistic conditions while a negative score shows the inverse.
Specifically, the new global average robot density has reached a record 162 units per 10,000 employees in 2023, which is more than double the mark of 74 units measured seven years ago.
Broken into geographical regions, the European Union has a robot density of 219 units per 10,000 employees, an increase of 5.2%, with Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Slovenia in the global top ten. Next, North America’s robot density is 197 units per 10,000 employees – up 4.2%. And Asia has a robot density of 182 units per 10,000 persons employed in manufacturing - an increase of 7.6%. The economies of Korea, Singapore, mainland China and Japan are among the top ten most automated countries.
Broken into individual countries, the U.S. ranked in 10th place in 2023, with a robot density of 295 units. Higher up on the list, the top five are:
The Republic of Korea, with 1,012 robot units, showing a 5% increase on average each year since 2018 thanks to its strong electronics and automotive industries.
Singapore had 770 robot units, in part because it is a small country with a very low number of employees in the manufacturing industry, so it can reach a high robot density with a relatively small operational stock.
China took third place in 2023, surpassing Germany and Japan with a mark of 470 robot units as the nation has managed to double its robot density within four years.
Germany ranks fourth with 429 robot units for a 5% CAGR since 2018.
Japan is in fifth place with 419 robot units, showing growth of 7% on average each year from 2018 to 2023.
Progress in generative AI (GenAI) is poised to impact business procurement processes through advancements in three areas—agentic reasoning, multimodality, and AI agents—according to Gartner Inc.
Those functions will redefine how procurement operates and significantly impact the agendas of chief procurement officers (CPOs). And 72% of procurement leaders are already prioritizing the integration of GenAI into their strategies, thus highlighting the recognition of its potential to drive significant improvements in efficiency and effectiveness, Gartner found in a survey conducted in July, 2024, with 258 global respondents.
Gartner defined the new functions as follows:
Agentic reasoning in GenAI allows for advanced decision-making processes that mimic human-like cognition. This capability will enable procurement functions to leverage GenAI to analyze complex scenarios and make informed decisions with greater accuracy and speed.
Multimodality refers to the ability of GenAI to process and integrate multiple forms of data, such as text, images, and audio. This will make GenAI more intuitively consumable to users and enhance procurement's ability to gather and analyze diverse information sources, leading to more comprehensive insights and better-informed strategies.
AI agents are autonomous systems that can perform tasks and make decisions on behalf of human operators. In procurement, these agents will automate procurement tasks and activities, freeing up human resources to focus on strategic initiatives, complex problem-solving and edge cases.
As CPOs look to maximize the value of GenAI in procurement, the study recommended three starting points: double down on data governance, develop and incorporate privacy standards into contracts, and increase procurement thresholds.
“These advancements will usher procurement into an era where the distance between ideas, insights, and actions will shorten rapidly,” Ryan Polk, senior director analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Procurement leaders who build their foundation now through a focus on data quality, privacy and risk management have the potential to reap new levels of productivity and strategic value from the technology."